SAGA Progress Report
April, 2004

• Determinants of Poverty Dynamics (Ashie Mukunge and Ibrahim Kasirye) — being revised. This paper uses the 1992-1999 panel of households in the Integrated Household Survey (IHS) and National Household Survey (NHS) to model change in poverty status over time. After receiving comments on the initial draft, the authors are revising the focus to include an analysis of vulnerability.
  
  
• Multidimensional Intertemporal Poverty Comparisons (Stephen Younger) — completed, published as a SAGA Working paper, presented at the Centre for the Study of African Economies’ annual research conference. This paper uses the 1992 IHS and 1999 NHS cross-sections to compare poverty over time in Uganda, where poverty is measured is multiple dimensions. In particular, the author considers household expenditures per capita, children’s nutritional status (height), and mother’s literacy. Results are less optimistic than univariate comparisons of expenditures (e.g., Appleton, 2001), with some regions and areas not showing multivariate improvement. A draft is circulating internally for comments, and the authors expect to release a working paper version before the end of the year
  
  
• Multidimensional Spatial Poverty Comparisons (Stephen Younger, David Sahn, Jean-Yves Duclos) — completed, published as a SAGA working paper. [Now available as a reprint in World Bank Economic Review.] This paper builds on Duclos, Sahn, and Younger (2003a, 2003b) to make spatial poverty comparisons when poverty is measured in the dimensions of household expenditures per capita and children’s nutritional status (height) in Uganda and other African countries. Most regional comparisons are consistent with prior expectations based on univariate poverty comparisons based on expenditures alone. However, comparisons of rural areas in one region with urban areas in others are more nuanced, with rural areas in some regions actually appearing less poor than urban areas in others. The Uganda results are published in Duclos, Sahn, and Younger (2003b), and the authors are now adding results from other countries for this paper.
  
  
• Modeling Infant Mortality over Time (Sarah Ssewanyana and Stephen Younger) — being revised. This paper, like the previous two, addresses the concern in Uganda that not all dimensions of well-being are improving as rapidly as incomes. It uses birth history recall data from the DHS to construct time series for infant mortality from the mid-1970s to 2000. It then models infant mortality rates, attempting to understand how both macro and micro variables have influenced mortality rates over time.
  
  
• Modeling Behavior and HIV/AIDS (David Sahn and Peter Glick). This research will model a variety of behaviors that both determine and are affected by HIV/AIDS transmission in Uganda. Using DHS data, the authors will examine the impact of knowledge about HIV/AIDS and other public interventions on the probability of choosing to be tested for HIV, condom use, and sexual activity. The authors have preliminary results and expect to complete a draft in early 2004.
  
  
• Tax Incidence (John Matovu and Margaret Banga). This study will examine the incidence of taxes in Uganda in 1999, updating a previous study by Chen, Matovu, and Reinikka (2001) for 1992 data. A particular concern is to look at the graduated tax, which is a main source of revenue for districts and thus key to Uganda’s decentralization plans. Both participatory assessments in Uganda have found this tax to be extremely unpopular. The authors have begun their analysis and expect to complete a draft early in 2004.
  
  
• Demand for Health Care Consultations (Sarah Ssewanyana and Stephen Younger) — being revised. The 2002 round of the National Household Survey has an unusually rich set of information on respondents’ access to health care and the quality of those services. This paper uses this information to estimate the demand for public and private health care. Given that user fees were recently abolished, understanding these demands is particularly relevant for policy makers in Uganda.
  
  
• Public Water Supply and Women’s Time Use (Peter Glick and Stephen Younger) — being revised. This paper uses an econometric analysis to ask whether public investments in water supply will reduce the work burden on females relative to males. It considers the implications for time allocated to the following activities: water collection itself, all domestic activities, market oriented work, and leisure. The preliminary results suggest that, in Uganda and Madagascar, such investments can have at best only limited impacts on time use and the gender distribution of work and leisure.
  
  
• Agricultural Commercialization and Children’s Nutritional Status (Godfrey Bahiigwa and Stephen Younger). This paper responds to a direct request and concern of the Ministry of Agriculture in Uganda. The Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture (PMA) is a central feature of Uganda’s poverty reduction strategy. The PMA, in turn, aims to promote the transformation from subsistence to commercial farming. This strategy has raised the concern, however, that commercialization may have negative consequences for children’s nutrition. While available evidence casts doubt on this concern (e.g., von Braun and Kennedy, 1994), examining the issue for Uganda-specific data will be more persuasive for Uganda’s policy-makers. Authors plan to begin work in early 2004.
  

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