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SAGA Progress Report October, 2003
II. RESEARCH
D. Uganda
1. Activities over the past twelve months
As discussed in our previous report, a key focus of the SAGA research effort in
Uganda is to make better use of existing data, of which there is an abundance, but which
gets relatively little use. To date, researchers at the Economic Policy Research Centre
(EPRC) and Cornell have started nine research papers, all of which make use of existing
data, primarily national surveys of household income and expenditure (IHS and NHS)
and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Those projects, their principal
investigator(s) and status, follow.
- Determinants of Poverty Dynamics (Ashie Mukunge and Ibrahim Kasirye). This paper uses the 1992-1999 panel of households in the Integrated Household Survey
(IHS) and National Household Survey (NHS) to model change in poverty status over time. A draft is circulating internally for comments, and the authors expect to
release a working paper version before the end of the year.
- Multidimensional Intertemporal Poverty Comparisons (Stephen Younger). This paper uses the 1992 IHS and 1999 NHS cross-sections to compare poverty over
time in Uganda, where poverty is measured is multiple dimensions. In particular,
the author considers household expenditures per capita, childrens nutritional
status (height), and mothers literacy. Results are less optimistic than univariate
comparisons of expenditures (e.g., Appleton, 2001), with some regions and areas
not showing multivariate improvement. A draft is circulating internally for
comments, and the authors expect to release a working paper version before the
end of the year.
- Multidimensional Spatial Poverty Comparisons (Stephen Younger, David Sahn, Jean-Yves Duclos). This paper builds on Duclos, Sahn, and Younger (2003a,
2003b) to make spatial poverty comparisons when poverty is measured in the
dimensions of household expenditures per capita and childrens nutritional status
(height) in Uganda and other African countries. Most regional comparisons are
consistent with prior expectations based on univariate poverty comparisons based
on expenditures alone. However, comparisons of rural areas in one region with
urban areas in others are more nuanced, with rural areas in some regions actually
appearing less poor than urban areas in others. The Uganda results are published
in Duclos, Sahn, and Younger (2003b), and the authors are now adding results
from other countries for this paper.
- Modeling Infant Mortality over Time (Sarah Ssewanyana and Stephen Younger). This paper, like the previous two, will address the concern in Uganda that not all dimensions of well-being are improving as rapidly as incomes. It will use birth
history recall data from the DHS to construct time series for infant mortality from
the mid-1970s to 2000. It will then model infant mortality rates, attempting to
understand how both macro and micro variables have influenced mortality rates
over time. To date, the authors have a preliminary set of results. They expect to
have a draft ready before the end of the year.
- Modeling Behavior and HIV/AIDS (David Sahn and Peter Glick). This research will model a variety of behaviors that both determine and are affected by
HIV/AIDS transmission in Uganda. Using DHS data, the authors will examine the
impact of knowledge about HIV/AIDS and other public interventions on the
probability of choosing to be tested for HIV, condom use, and sexual activity. The
authors have preliminary results and expect to complete a draft in early 2004.
- Tax Incidence (John Matovu and Margaret Banga). This study will examine the incidence of taxes in Uganda in 1999, updating a previous study by Chen,
Matovu, and Reinikka (2001) for 1992 data. A particular concern is to look at the
graduated tax, which is a main source of revenue for districts and thus key to Ugandas decentralization plans. Both participatory assessments in Uganda have
found this tax to be extremely unpopular. The authors have begun their analysis
and expect to complete a draft early in 2004.
- Demand for Health Care Consultations (Sarah Ssewanyana and Stephen Younger). The 2002 round of the National Household Survey has an unusually
rich set of information on respondents access to health care and the quality of
those services. This paper will use this information to estimate the demand for
public and private health care. Given that user fees were recently abolished,
understanding these demands is particularly relevant for policy makers in Uganda.
The authors expect to begin work early in 2004.
- Public Water Supply and Womens Time Use (Peter Glick and Stephen Younger). This paper uses an econometric analysis to ask whether public investments in water supply will reduce the work burden on females relative to males. It
considers the implications for time allocated to the following activities: water
collection itself, all domestic activities, market oriented work, and leisure. The
preliminary results suggest that, in Uganda and Madagascar, such investments can
have at best only limited impacts on time use and the gender distribution of work
and leisure. The authors have an extensive set of results, and they plan to prepare
a draft before the end of the year.
- Agricultural Commercialization and Childrens Nutritional Status (Godfrey Bahiigwa and Stephen Younger). This paper responds to a direct request and
concern of the Ministry of Agriculture in Uganda. The Plan for the Modernization
of Agriculture (PMA) is a central feature of Ugandas poverty reduction strategy.
The PMA, in turn, aims to promote the transformation from subsistence to
commercial farming. This strategy has raised the concern, however, that
commercialization may have negative consequences for childrens nutrition.
While available evidence casts doubt on this concern (e.g., von Braun and
Kennedy, 1994), examining the issue for Uganda-specific data will be more
persuasive for Ugandas policy-makers. Authors plan to begin work in early 2004.
2. Planned Activities
To further the research projects outlined above and to explore others that we may
undertake in the future, Stephen Younger visited Uganda three times during the project
year, in November 2002, June 2003, and August 2003.
With the expectation that most, if not all, of these projects will be completed by
March, 2004, Cornell and EPRC are planning a conference for early in 2004, to be held
in Kampala, at which authors will present their papers. This will be accompanied by a
briefing of shorter duration for policy-makers to discuss the recommendations and
relevance of the research.
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