SAGA Progress Report

SAGA
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SAGA Progress Report
October, 2002

II. RESEARCH
4. Uganda

Definition of a research program for SAGA in Uganda has progressed considerably, the result of three visits by Steve Younger to Kampala in November, 2001, June and August, 2002. During these visits, Younger met with a many researchers, government officials, and USAID/Uganda staff to discuss possible foci for the research program. During the last visit, the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), the SISERA partner in Uganda, held a consultative meeting with multiple stakeholders to discuss the SAGA research program in Uganda.

Before discussing possible themes, it should be noted that the most striking observation made in the meetings in Kampala is that virtually everyone commented that there is an abundance of good data in this country, but few good researchers to use them. In response, Cornell and the EPRC conducted a two-week workshop on the use of household survey data for policy analysis, from August 26 to September 6. While primarily a technical assistance activity, we sought to augment the Uganda research program. In particular, by showing the workshop’s participants both research topics and the methods to address them, we tried to stimulate the interest of a group of researchers who might participate in the SAGA research agenda. Another way in which the workshop related to SAGA research activities was by including the participants in the day-long consultative meeting that included representatives from the government, USAID, the World Bank, and other stakeholders, such as university faculty.

Based on all of our discussions, EPRC and Cornell decided that SAGA research should not be a single, large research project, but several papers, written by different authors, that attempt to make the most of existing data that are largely untapped in Uganda. At a wrap-up meeting on September 6, 2002, we agreed to prepare research prospecti on the following themes (task manager appears in parentheses). Stephen Younger will travel to Uganda in November, at which time we will review these research ideas and launch the projects that seem feasible and appropriate.

Decentralization and district budget procedures (Peter Mijumbe): There are two topics of interest here. First, to maintain overall macroeconomic balance, the central government often reduces revenue sharing to the districts during the fiscal year to below the amounts stated in the annual budget. These cuts are not uniform, so the first question is, which districts suffer the largest cuts? In particular, we are interested to know if they tend to be the poorer districts.

A second issue is the progressivity of each districts budget. To pursue this, we will use existing survey data to look at which households benefits from each district’s budgetary decisions, and compare the progressivity of those decisions to central government decisions. As an extension that follows on the first question, we are also interested in understanding that expenditures districts cut when their overall revenue sharing is reduced unexpectedly.
Universal Primary Education and the demand for schooling (Steve Younger): Appleton (2001) has pointed out that virtually all schooling demand functions for developing countries, including Uganda, estimate very low price elasticities, even for the poor. Yet when Uganda introduced the Universal Primary Education program, which basically banned school and PTA fees, attendance soared. Tanzania and Malawi have had similar experiences with UPE. This study would attempt to reconcile this contradiction by estimating demand functions using two or more samples that span the UPE period (1997). The goal is to obtain a more accurate estimate of price elasticities, and also to look for lagged effects on enrolments, which seem to have fallen off somewhat in recent years, perhaps because of reduced quality.
Changes in multidimensional poverty in Uganda, 1992-2002 (Godfrey Bahiigwa, Steve Younger): Uganda has seen rapid economic growth over the past 15 years, and this growth has been accompanied by similarly rapid declines in income poverty (Appleton, 1999). Yet there is concern in Uganda that other indicators of well-being are not improving at a comparable pace. In particular, infant mortality rates actually increased between 1995 and 2000 (Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development, 2002). Analysis of children’s nutritional status yields ambiguous results. This project would examine poverty in multiple dimensions, focusing on children’s welfare. Its main goal is descriptive, but we also hope to shed light on the apparent contradiction between rapid improvements in income poverty and the lack of a clear direction for non-income welfare measures.
The poverty impact of "strategic export" promotion (Godfrey Bahiigwa, John Okidi): The government of Uganda has recently proposed an export promotion scheme focused around eight crops. This research will evaluate the likely poverty reduction consequences of this scheme. We are particularly interested in (1) which crops may have the greatest poverty reduction, and (2) the extent to which a shift to these crops might affect farmers’ risk and vulnerability by exposing them to markets with different volatilities.
Agricultural service delivery, and poverty reduction (Godfrey Bahiigwa, John Okidi): The market for agricultural services has changed dramatically over the past decade. Responsibility for extension has been decentralized to districts. The private sector has entered some service markets. And transportation has improved. To what extent have these factors affected rural poverty in Uganda? This study will examine this question, focusing on a panel of households that is available in the national household surveys (1992, 1996, 1999). We will describe changes in agricultural services that households use, and model the poverty impact of these services.
Budgetary accountability and school performance (Steve Younger): Uganda was the site for Ablo and Reinikka’s (1998) pathbreaking study on accountability and school budgets. Reinikka is currently planning a further study in Uganda on the same theme, in which public information about school budgets will be provided to a randomized group of communities. Her interest is to estimate the impact of this information on the share of budgeted resources that actually reach the school. We would like to push that study one step further and estimate the impact of budgetary expenditures on children’s performance in school, using the program as an instrument for expenditures. The dependent variable will be results on standardized tests given to all schoolchildren in third and sixth grades in Uganda.

Institutional linkages

The Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) is the only SISERA affiliate in Uganda and will be our principal collaborating institution for SAGA research. While independent of Makerere University, EPRC is housed on the Makerere campus and can facilitate the participation of university faculty on SAGA research by granting them temporary appointments as adjunct researchers. Our discussions with the World Bank also suggest that there may be several opportunities for useful collaboration in Uganda.

Activities over previous six months

The principal research activities over the past six months all relate to the participatory definition of suitable themes for SAGA’s research in Uganda. Steve Younger, John Okidi, and various USAID/Uganda staff met separately with government officials, donors, and other stakeholders during Younger’s June visit to Kampala. The September 5 consultative meeting brought many of these parties together with EPRC researchers at a single roundtable discussion of research interests and possibilities. And the August 26- September 6 workshop on survey data analysis generated interest in poverty research among participants, many of whom may eventually be involved in SAGA research.

Activities anticipated over the next six months

In October 2002, the task managers listed above will prepare research prospecti on the topics mentioned, to be discussed electronically among stakeholders in Uganda and SAGA researchers at Cornell and Clark-Atlanta. These discussions will continue during Steve Younger’s next visit to Uganda in mid-November, 2002. At that time, we will rough out budgets for the proposed research and select as many topics as possible given budget constraints. We will also discuss possibilities for additional funding. By January 2003, we intend to have a series of projects established, with research begun on each.

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