VIEW PUBLICATIONS BY:
→ RESEARCH THEME
→ GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS
→ PUBLICATION DATE
SAGA
B16 MVR Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
(607) 255-8931
Fax (607) 255-0178
saga@cornell.edu
|
SAGA PUBLICATIONS
Included here are Working Papers and Conference Papers. Publications on this page are organized by author:
RETURN TO MAIN AUTHORS PAGE
Babatope-Obasa, Babasanmi
Institutional framework, interest rate policy and the Nigerian manufacturing sub-sector
October 2004
Michael Adebayo Adebiyi and Babasanmi Babatope-Obasa In this study, we set out to empirically investigate the impact of interest rates and
other macroeconomic factors on manufacturing performance in Nigeria using cointegration
and an error correction mechanism (ECM) technique with annual time series
covering the period between 1970 and 2002. Some statistical tools are employed to
explore the relationship between these variables. The analysis starts with examining
stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using
Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. Then, the study estimates error correction
mechanism (ECM) model.
From the error correction model, several interesting conclusions are drawn from
the study. First, interest rate spread and government deficit financing have negative
impact on the growth of manufacturing sub-sector in Nigeria. Secondly, the study
empirically reveals that liberalization of the Nigerian economy has promoted
manufacturing growth between 1970 and 2002. Lastly, the findings are further reinforced
by the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship, as evidenced by the cointegration,
and stability in the model. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004,
Cape Town, South Africa
Babatunde, Musibau Adetunji
Long Run Relationship between Education and Economic
Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from the Johansen’s
Cointegration Approach
November 2005
Babatunde, Musibau Adetunji and Adefabi, Rasak Adetunji
This paper investigates the long run relationship between education and economic growth in
Nigeria between 1970 and 2003 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique and
Vector Error Correction Methodology. It examines two different channels through which human
capital can affect long run economic growth in Nigeria. The first channel is when human capital is a
direct input in the production function and the second channel is when the human capital affects the
technology parameter. The Johansen Cointegration result establishes a long run relationship between
education and economic growth. A well educated labour force appears to significantly influence
economic growth both as a factor in the production function and through total factor productivity. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005
Bahiigwa, Godfrey
Childrens Health Status in Uganda
July 2005
Bahiigwa, Godfrey and Stephen D. Younger
This paper studies trends and determinants of children's standardized heights, a good overall
measure of children's health status, in Uganda over the 1990s. During this period, Uganda made
impressive strides in economic growth and poverty reduction (Appleton, 2001). However, there
is concern that improvements in other dimensions of well-being, especially health, has been
much weaker.
We find that several policy variables are important determinants of children's heights. Most
importantly, a broad package of basic health care services has a large statistically significant
effect. Provision of some of these services, especially vaccinations, appears to have faltered in
the late 1990s, which may help to explain the lackluster performance on stunting during that
period. We also find that civil conflict, a persistent problem in some areas of the country, has an
important (negative) impact on children's heights. Better educated mothers have taller children,
but the only substantial impact is for children of mothers who have completed secondary school.
Finally, we find that households that rely more on own-production sources of income tend to
have more malnourished children, even after controlling for their overall level of income and a
host of other factors. This latter conclusion is supportive of the Plan for Modernization of
Agriculture, which aims to shift farmers from subsistence to commercial agriculture or other
more productive activities.
Bahoken, Serge
Access to Schooling and Employment in Cameroon:
New Inequalities and Opportunities
April 2004
Eloundou-Enyegue, Parfait M., Ngoube Maurice, Okene Richard, V.P Onguene,Serge Bahoken, Joseph Tamukong, Moses Mbangwana, Joseph Essindi Evina, and Caroline Mongue Djongoue
This report is about recent trends in education and access to employment in Cameroon. It focuses
on five questions about (1) current levels of schooling, (2) recent trends in enrolment, (3) recent
trends in schooling inequalities, (4) access to employment, and (5) risks and opportunities to
improve education and employment outcomes. Based on these analyses, the report discusses several
challenges and opportunities in improving education and employment outcomes.
Baldé, D.
Improving Schools in a Context of Decentralization: Findings from Research in West
Africa – Benin, Guinea, Mali and Senegal
November 2005
De Grauwe, A. and C. Lugaz (IIEP); D. Odushina and M. Moustapha (Bénin) ; D. Baldé
(Guinée) ; D. Dougnon (Mali); and C. Diakhaté (Sénégal)
Discussions on decentralization have increased in complexity in recent years because of the
deepened realization that the ‘school’ as an institutional unit is a core actor in ensuring
educational quality. A growing number of studies demonstrate that the management of a
school, the relationships between the different actors (the head teacher, the teachers and the
community) and the school’s own involvement in defining and evaluating its improvement
have a profound impact on the quality of education. This ‘autonomization’ of the school in combination with the more traditional forms of decentralization, has led to greater diversity in
the policies implemented in different countries. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005
Bambangi, Sagre
Local Governance and Resource Allocation
July 2005
Sagre Bambangi and Al-hassan Seidu
An important function of District Assemblies in Ghana is to ensure that the benefits of
growth are shared equitably and fairly. One way of achieving this is to promote
efficiency in resource allocation at both individual and community levels. This paper
utilizes the case study approach to assess efficiency of resource distribution in four
Districts in the Northern and Upper East regions of Ghana with emphasis on
infrastructure, micro-credit, human and information resources. The conclusion is that
the Medium Term Development plan prepared within the framework of the themes of
the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS) is an important guiding document in
resource allocation. The allocation of community facilities such as schools, health
and administrative infrastructure have been found generally to conform to the plan in
spite of occasional erratic influences and decisions of some personalities. However, in
terms of resources that are allocated to individuals such as the Poverty Alleviation
Fund (PAF) the guidelines are often circumvented. It is recommended that
Government policy of zero tolerance for corruption needs to be demonstrated at the
local level in terms of the disbursement of the PAF. Priority must be given to
development considerations instead of partisan party loyalty in appointing DCEs in
order to check politicisation of resource allocation. A serious consideration must be
given to the full implementation of the sub-district structures to facilitate information
dissemination. For the people to “feel the growth in their pockets” resource allocation
at the local level needs to be closely monitored to ensure compliance with guidelines.
Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005,
Accra, Ghana
Barison, Joeli
Better Technology, Better Plots or Better Farmers? Identifying Changes In Productivity And Risk Among Malagasy Rice Farmers
November 2004
Barrett, Christopher B., Christine M. Moser, Oloro V. McHugh, and Joeli Barison
We introduce a method for properly attributing observed productivity and risk changes among new production methods, farmers, and plots by controlling for farmer and plot heterogeneity. Results from Madagascar show that the new system of rice intensification (SRI) is indeed a superior technology. Although about half of the observed productivity gains appear due to farmer characteristics rather than SRI itself, the technology generates the estimated average output gains of more than 84%. The increased estimated yield risk associated with SRI would nonetheless make it unattractive to many farmers within the standard range of relative risk aversion.
In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(4):869-888 (November).
Barrett, Christopher
Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity
Marketing Behavior
February 2011
Stephens, Emma C. and Christopher B. Barrett
Seasonal market participation patterns for smallholder farmers in western
Kenya indicate that a signicant proportion follow a ‘sell low, buy high’ marketing strategy, in which these households forego opportunities for intertemporal
price arbitrage through storage and are observed to sell output post-harvest at
prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season.
We use data from the region to examine whether this behavior can be partly
explained by the presence of a binding liquidity constraint for these farmers.
We estimate a multi-period market participation model in the presence of liquidity constraints and transactions costs using maximum likelihood. Access to
credit and off-farm income indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase
behaviors in a manner consistent with the hypothesized patterns.
In Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1): 1-24, February, 2011
The Evolution of Groupwise Poverty in Madagascar, 1999-2005
August 2010
Stifel, David, Felix Forster, and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper explores whether there exist differences in groupwise poverty in
Madagascar; that is, whether there is a pattern over time of consistently poorer performance
among subpopulations readily identifiable by one or more identity markers. Three key messages
come out of this analysis. First, there exists a core type of household that remained persistently poor over the 1999-2005 period. These households were largely not members of the dominant ethnic group, land poor, lived in remote areas, and were headed by uneducated individuals, most commonly women. Second, in addition to establishing the existence of persistent differences in poverty across groups, relative differences in returns to education, land and remoteness underscore the existence of differences within groups, as one characteristic affects the returns to another. Third, persistent differences in groupwise poverty is associated with multiple different identities, some of which are offsetting and some of which are reinforcing. For example, women’s higher education tends to offset the disadvantages associated with being a head of household, while remoteness compounds the disadvantages associated with living in female-headed households. Paper presented at workshop hosted by the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE): The Persistence of Inequalities, Department of International Development, University of Oxford, April 4, 2008
In Journal of African Economies 19(4):559-604, August, 2010
Social Learning, Social Influence and Projection Bias: A caution on inferences based on proxy-reporting of peer behavior
April 2010
Hogset, Heidi and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper explores the consequences of conflating social learning and social influence
concepts and of the widespread use of proxy-reported behavioral data for accurate
understanding of learning from others. Our empirical analysis suggests that proxy-reporting is
more accurate for new innovations, about which social learning is more plausible, than for
mature technologies. Furthermore, proxy-reporting errors are correlated with respondent
attributes, suggesting projection bias. Self- and proxy-reported variables generate different
regression results, raising questions about inferences based on error-prone, proxy-reported
peer behaviors. Self-reported peer behavior consistently exhibits statistically insignificant
effects on network members’ adoption behavior, suggesting an absence of social effects.
In Economic Development and Cultural Change 58(3):563-589
Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid North
August 2009
Mude, Andrew, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. McPeak, Robert Kaitho and Patti Kristjansen
Mitigating the negative welfare consequences of crises such as droughts, floods, and
disease outbreaks, is a major challenge in many areas of the world, especially in highly
vulnerable areas insufficiently equipped to prevent food and livelihood security crisis in
the face of adverse shocks. Given the finite resources allocated for emergency response,
and the expected increase in incidences of humanitarian catastrophe due to changing
climate patterns, there is a need for rigorous and efficient methods of early warning and
emergency needs assessment. In this paper we develop an empirical model, based on a
relatively parsimonious set of regularly measured variables from communities in Kenya’s
arid north, that generates remarkably accurate forecasts of the likelihood of famine with
at least three months lead time. Such a forecasting model is a potentially valuable tool
for enhancing early warning capacity.
Presented at Policy Research Conference on
“Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,”
held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006
In Food Policy 34(4): 329-339, August, 2009
Spatial Integration at Multiple Scales:
Rice Markets in Madagascar
May 2009
Moser, Christine, Christopher B. Barrett, and Bart Minten
The dramatic increase in the price of rice and other commodities over the past year has generated new interest in how these markets work and how they can be improved. This article uses an exceptionally rich data set to test the extent to which markets in Madagascar are integrated across space at different scales of analysis and to explain some of the factors that limit spatial arbitrage and price equalization within a single country. We use rice price data across four quarters of 2000-2001 along with data on transportation costs and infrastructure availability for nearly 1,400 communes in Madagascar to examine the extent of market integration at three different spatial scales—subregional, regional, and national—and to determine whether non-integration is due to high transfer costs or lack of competition. The results indicate that markets are fairly well integrated at the subregional level and that factors such as high crime rates, remoteness, and lack of information are among the factors limiting competition. In Agricultural Economics 40(3): 281-294, May, 2009
Understanding Declining Mobility and Inter-household
Transfers among East African Pastoralists
April 2009
Huysentruyt, Marieke, Christoper B. Barrett, and John G. McPeak
We model inter-household transfers between nomadic livestock herders as the state-dependent consequence of individuals’ strategic interdependence, resulting from the existence of multiple, opposing externalities—more specifically, a public-good security externality among individuals sharing a social (e.g. ethnic) identity in a potentially hostile environment, and a resource appropriation externality related to the use of common property grazing lands. Our model augments the extant literature on transfers, and is more consistent with the limited available empirical evidence on heterogeneous and changing transfers’ patterns among east African pastoralists. The core principles of our model possibly apply more broadly, for example to long-distance migrants or even ‘foot soldiers’in street gangs.
In Economica 76(302): 315-336, April, 2009
Risk Management and Social Visibility in Ghana
April 2009
Vanderpuye-Orgle, Jacqueline and Christopher B. Barrett
In this paper we test for risk pooling within and among social networks to see if the extent of informal insurance available to individuals in rural Ghana varies with their social visibility. We identify a distinct subpopulation of socially invisible individuals who tend to be younger, poorer, engaged in farming, recent arrivals into the village who have been fostered and are not members of a major clan. While we cannot reject the null hypothesis that individual shocks do not affect individual consumption and that individual consumption tracks network and village consumption one-for-one among the socially visible, risk pooling fails for the socially invisible subpopulation. These results have important implications for the design of social protection policy.
In African Development Review 21(1):5-35, April, 2009
Do Free Goods Stick to Poor Households?
Experimental Evidence on Insecticide Treated Bednets
March 2009
Hoffmann, Vivian, Christopher B. Barrett, and David R. Just
If the market allocates goods to those willing and able to pay the most for them, efforts to target durable health goods such as insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) to poor populations may prove ineffective, with the poor reselling donated goods to the non-poor who value them more highly. However, low market demand may be due to liquidity constraints rather than low valuation of nets. The endowment effect also militates against the resale of in-kind transfers. We quantify these two effects through a field experiment in Uganda. Our results indicate that very few nets will be resold by recipient households.
In World Development 37(3):607-617, March, 2009
Persistent Poverty and Informal Credit
November 2008
Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper explores the consequences of nonlinear wealth dynamics for the formation of bilateral credit arrangements to help manage idiosyncratic risk. Building on recent empirical work that finds evidence consistent with the hypothesis of multiple equilibrium poverty traps, and using original primary data on expected wealth dynamics, social networks and informal loans among southern Ethiopian pastoralist households, we find that the threshold at which wealth dynamics
bifurcate serves as a focal point at which lending is concentrated. Informal lending responds to recipients’ losses but only so long as the recipients are not “too poor”. Our results suggest that when shocks can have long term effects, loans are not scale-neutral. Furthermore,the persistently poor are excluded from social networks that are necessary to obtain loans given in response to shocks.
Smallholder Market Participation:
Concepts and Evidence from Eastern and Southern Africa
August 2008
Barrett, Christopher B.
This paper reviews the evidence on smallholder market participation, with a focus on staple foodgrains (i.e., cereals) in eastern and
southern Africa, in an effort to help better identify what interventions are most likely to break smallholders out of the semi-subsistence
poverty trap that appears to ensnare much of rural Africa. The conceptual and empirical evidence suggests that interventions aimed at
facilitating smallholder organization, at reducing the costs of intermarket commerce, and, perhaps especially, at improving poorer households’
access to improved technologies and productive assets are central to stimulating smallholder market participation and escape from
semi-subsistence poverty traps. Macroeconomic and trade policy tools appear less useful in inducing market participation by poor smallholders
in the region.
Prepared for FAO workshop on Staple Food Trade and Market Policy Options for Promoting Development in Eastern and Southern Africa, Rome, March 1-2, 2007.
In Food Policy 33(4): 299-317, August, 2008
Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa
August 2008
Doss, Cheryl, John McPeak, and Barrett, Christopher B.
This study investigates variation over time, space and household and individual
characteristics in how people perceive different risks. Using original data from the arid
and semi-arid lands of east Africa, we explore which risks concern individuals and how
they assess their relative level of concern about these identified risks. Because these
assessments were gathered for multiple time periods, sites, households and individuals
within households, we are able to identify the degree to which risk perceptions vary
across time, across communities, across households within a community, and across
individuals within a household. We find the primary determinants of risk rankings to be
changing community level variables over time, with household specific and individual
specific variables exhibiting much less influence. This suggests that community based
planning and monitoring of development efforts that address risk exposure should be
prioritized. We also find that individuals throughout this area are most concerned about
food security overall, so that development efforts that directly address this problem
should be given the highest priority.
In World Development 36(8): 1453-68 2008
Challenging Orthodoxies: Understanding Poverty in Pastoral Areas of East Africa
July 2008
Little, Peter D., John McPeak, Christopher B. Barrett and Patti Kristjanson
Understanding and alleviating poverty in Africa continues to receive considerable
attention by a range of diverse actors, including politicians, international celebrities,
academics, activists, and practitioners. Despite the onslaught of interest, there
surprisingly is little agreement on what constitutes poverty in rural Africa, how it should
be assessed, and what should be done to alleviate it. Based on data from an
interdisciplinary study of pastoralism in northern Kenya, this article examines issues of
poverty among one of the continent’s most vulnerable groups, pastoralists, and
challenges the application of such orthodox proxies as incomes/expenditures, geographic
remoteness, and market integration. It argues that current poverty debates ’homogenize‚
the concept of ’pastoralist‚ by failing to acknowledge the diverse livelihoods and wealth
differentiation that fall under the term. The article concludes that what is not needed is
another development label (stereotype) that equates pastoralism with poverty, thereby
empowering outside interests to transform rather than strengthen pastoral livelihoods. Overview Paper for the Policy Research Conference on
“Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,”
held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006 In Development and Change 39(4), pp. 587-611, 2008
Improving Food Aid’s Impact:
What Reforms Would Yield The Highest Payoff?
July 2008
Lentz, Erin C. and Christopher B. Barrett
Developing an integrated model of the food aid distribution chain, from donor
appropriations through operational agency programming decisions to
household consumption choices we simulate alternative policies and sensitivity
analysis to establish how varying underlying conditions — e.g., delivery costs,
the political additionality of food, targeting efficacy — affect the optimal policy
for improving the well-being of food insecure households. We find that
improved targeting by operational agencies is crucial to advancing food
security objectives. At the donor level, the key policy variable under most
model parameterizations is ocean freight costs associated with cargo preference
restrictions on US food aid. In World Development 36(7): 1152-1172, July, 2008
Agricultural Technology, Productivity, and Poverty
in Madagascar
May 2008
Minten, Bart and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper uses a unique, spatially-explicit dataset to study the link between
agricultural performance and rural poverty in Madagascar. We show that, controlling for geographical
and physical characteristics, communes that have higher rates of adoption of improved
agricultural technologies and, consequently, higher crop yields enjoy lower food prices, higher real
wages for unskilled workers, and better welfare indicators. The empirical evidence strongly favors
support for improved agricultural production as an important part of any strategy to reduce the
high poverty and food insecurity rates currently prevalent in rural Madagascar.
In World Development 36(5): 797-822
Food Systems and the Escape from Poverty and Ill-Health Traps in Sub-Saharan Africa
May 2008
Barrett, Christopher
Millienium Development Goal #1 is to halve extreme poverty ($1/day per person)
and hunger. Progress toward this goal has been excellent at global level, led by China and
India, but woefully insufficient in sub-Saharan Africa. In Africa, a disproportionate share of the extreme poor are “ultra-poor”, surviving on less than $0.50/day per person, a condition that appears both stubbornly persistent and closely associated with widespread severe malnutrition – “ultra hunger” – and ill health. Indeed, ill health, malnutrition and ultra-poverty are mutually reinforcing states that add to the challenge of addressing any one of them on its own and make integrated strategies essential. Food systems are a natural locus for such a strategy because agriculture is the primary employment sector for the ultra-poor and because food consumes a very large share of the expenditures of the ultra-poor. The causal mechanisms underpinning the poverty trap in which ultra-poor, unhealthy and undernourished rural Africans too often find themselves remain only partially understood, but is clearly rooted in the food system that guides their production, exchange, consumption and investment behaviors. Four key principles to guide interventions in improving food systems emerge clearly. But there remains only limited empirical evidence to guide detailed design and implementation of strategies to develop African food systems so as to break the lock of poverty and ill-health traps. This paper was prepared for the Cornell University and United Nations University Symposium on The African Food System and its Interactions with Health and
Nutrition, held at the United Nations, New York City, November 13, and at Cornell University,
November 15, 2007.
What do we learn about social networks when we
only sample individuals? Not much.
May 2008
Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett
Much of the empirical analysis of social networks is based on a
sample of individuals, rather than a sample of matches between pairs of
individuals. This paper asks whether that approach is useful when one
wants to understand the determinants of variables that are inherently
dyadic, such as relationships. After reviewing the shortcomings of the
data used in the literature, we use Monte Carlo simulation to show that
the answer is positive only when relationships are themselves randomly
formed, a very special and uninteresting case. Additional work that
supports strategies to collect dyadic data as part of surveys usually
used by economists seems to be needed.
Poverty Traps and Resource Dynamics In
Smallholder Agrarian Systems
April 2008
Barrett, Christopher B.
Poverty traps and resource degradation in the rural tropics appear to have multiple and complex, but similar, causes. Market imperfections, imperfect learning, bounded rationality, spillovers, coordination failures and economically dysfunctional institutions all play a role, to varying degrees in different places and times. Pinning down these mechanisms empirically remains a challenge, however, but one essential to the design of appropriate interventions for reducing poverty and environmental degradation in areas where livelihoods depend heavily on natural resources. Prepared for the international conference on
“Economics of Poverty, Environment and Natural Resource Use,”
held at Wageningen University, the Netherlands, May 17-19, 2006
Chapter 2 in Economics of Poverty, Environment and Natural Resource Use, A. Ruijs, R. Dellink, eds., Springer.
Productivity in Malagasy Rice Systems:
Wealth-differentiated Constraints and Priorities
December 2007
Minten, Bart, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa and Christopher B. Barrett
This study explores the constraints on agricultural productivity and priorities in boosting productivity in rice, the main staple in Madagascar, using a range of different data sets and analytical methods, integrating qualitative assessments by farmers and quantitative evidence from panel data production function analysis and willingness-to-pay estimates for chemical fertilizer. Nationwide, farmers seek primarily labor productivity enhancing interventions, e.g., improved access to agricultural equipment, cattle, and irrigation. Shock mitigation measures, land productivity increasing technologies, and improved land tenure are reported to be much less important. Research and interventions aimed at reducing costs and price volatility within the fertilizer supply chain might help at least the more accessible regions to more readily adopt chemical fertilizer Invited panel paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Gold Coast, Australia,
August 12-18, 2006
In Agricultural Economics 37(s1): 237-248, December, 2007
The Unfulfilled Promise of Microfinance in Kenya: The KDA Experience
August 2007
Osterloh, Sharon M. and Christopher B. Barrett
“Microfinance offers promise for alleviating poverty by providing financial services to
people traditionally excluded from financial markets. Small-scale loans can relieve capital
constraints that might otherwise preclude cash-strapped entrepreneurs from investing in
profitable businesses, while savings services can create opportunities to accumulate wealth in
safe repositories and to manage risk through asset diversification. While this promise of
microfinance is widely touted, it is infrequently subject to careful evaluation using detailed data.
This chapter examines the extension of microfinance services to people in Kenya. Using
data collected from seventeen Financial Service Associations (FSAs) founded by the Kenya
Rural Enterprise Program (K-REP) Development Agency (KDA), we explore the intricacies of
microfinance institutions emerging in these challenging environment...” In Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 2007.
Decentralization of Pastoral Resources Management and its Effects on Environmental Degradation and Poverty, Experience from Northern Kenya
August 2007
Munyao, Kioko and Christopher B. Barrett
“Growing concerns about persistent poverty and environmental sustainability have helped
fuel efforts at decentralizing governance throughout the developing world. The 1992
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro brought widespread calls for greater community
participation and equity in natural resources management and sustainable development
planning, and these pressures have grown amid institutional reforms fostered by
movements towards democratization and market-based economic policy, spurred by,
among others, the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank) in the last two decades of the twentieth century (Goumandakoye 2003).
Ironically, however, in many cases decentralization has been used by national
governments not as a means to cede authority to local subjects, but rather to extend
control still deeper into local community life and resource management, while still
reaping the political capital associated with the rhetoric of bringing government services
and development closer to the people. Often this involves the subtle but real transfer of
influence, even control, from customary users of the resource to newcomers with better
connections to government representatives... ” In Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 2007.
Displaced Distortions:
Financial Market Failures and Seemingly Inefficient Resource Allocation
in Low-income Rural Communities
July 2007
Barrett, Christopher B.
Poor households in rural areas of the developing world commonly lack access to (formal or informal) credit or insurance. These financing constraints naturally spill over into other behaviours and (asset, factor and product) markets as households rationally exploit other market and non-market resource allocation mechanisms to resolve, at least partly, their financing problems. These displaced distortions of financing constraints commonly manifest themselves in allocative inefficiency that may lead researchers and policymakers to mistakenly conclude that poor households routinely make serious allocation errors and to direct policy interventions towards the symptoms manifest in other markets rather than towards the root financial markets failures cause.
July 2007 draft for festschrift volume in honor of Arie Kuyvenhoven
In Development Economics Between Markets and Institutions: Incentives for Growth, Food Security and Sustainable Use of the Environment, Bulte, Erwin and Ruerd Ruben, eds.,
Wageningen, The Netherlands: Wageningen Academic Publishers
Bayesian Herders:
Updating of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Climate Forecasts
March 2007
Lybbert, Travis J., Christoper Barrett, John G. McPeak, and Winnie K. Luseno
Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate
forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update
climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update
their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these
climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal
rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better
climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that
recipients strategically react to these updated expectations.
In World Development 35(3):480-497
Livelihood Strategies in the Rural Kenyan Highlands
December 2006
Brown, Douglas R., Emma C. Stephens, James Okuro Ouma, Festus M. Murithi and
Christopher B. Barrett
The concept of a livelihood strategy has become central to development practice
in recent years. Nonetheless, precise identification of livelihoods in quantitative data has
remained methodologically elusive. This paper uses cluster analysis methods to
operationalize the concept of livelihood strategies in household data and then uses the
resulting strategy-specific income distributions to test whether hypothesized outcome
differences between livelihoods indeed exist. Using data from Kenya’s central and
western highlands, we identify five distinct livelihood strategies that exhibit statistically
significant differences in mean per capita incomes and stochastic dominance orderings
that establish clear welfare rankings among livelihood strategies. Multinomial regression
analysis identifies geographic, demographic and financial determinants of livelihood
choice. The results should facilitate targeting of interventions designed to improve
household livelihoods.
In the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1(1):21-35
The Complex Dynamics of Smallholder Technology Adoption: The Case of SRI in Madagascar
November 2006
Moser, Christine M. and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper explores the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption, with particular
reference to a high-yielding, low-external input rice production method in Madagascar. We present a
simple model of technology adoption by farm households in an environment of incomplete financial
and land markets. We then use a probit model and symmetrically censored least squares estimation
of a dynamic Tobit model to analyze the decisions to adopt, expand and disadopt the method. We
find that seasonal liquidity constraints discourage adoption by poorer farmers. Learning effects—both from extension agents and from other farmers—exert significant influence over adoption decisions. In Agricultural Economics 35(3):373-388, 2006.
Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics:
On the Roles of Risk and Ability
June 2006
Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper studies the causal mechanisms behind poverty traps, building on evidence of
nonlinear wealth dynamics among a poor pastoralist population, the Boran from southern
Ethiopia. In particular, it explores the roles of adverse weather shocks and individual
ability to cope with such shocks in conditioning wealth dynamics. Using original data, we
establish pastoralists’ expectations of herd dynamics and show both that pastoralists
perceive the nonlinear long-term dynamics that characterize livestock wealth in the
region and that this pattern results from adverse weather shocks. We estimate a stochastic
herd growth frontier that yields herder-specific estimates of unobservable ability on
which we then condition our simulations of wealth dynamics. We find that those with
lower ability converge to a unique dynamic equilibrium at a small herd size, while those
with higher ability exhibit multiple stable dynamic wealth equilibria. Our results
underscore the criticality of asset protection against exogenous shocks in order to
facilitate wealth accumulation and economic growth and the importance of incorporating
indicators of ability in the targeting of asset transfers, as we demonstrate with simulations
of alternative asset transfer designs. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on
“Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,”
held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
An Ordered Tobit of Market Participation: Evidence from Kenya and Ethiopia
May 2006
Bellemare, Marc F. and Barrett, Christopher B.
Do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume
decisions simultaneously or sequentially? This article develops a two-stage
econometric model that allows testing between these two competing hypotheses
regarding household-level market behavior. The first stage models the household’s
choice of whether to be a net buyer, autarkic, or a net seller in the market. The
second stage models the quantity bought (sold) for net buyers (sellers) based on observable
household characteristics. Using household data from Kenya and Ethiopia
on livestock markets, we find evidence in favor of sequential decision-making, the
welfare implications of which we discuss.
In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2):324-337, May, 2006
Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa
February 2006
Barrett, Christopher B., Michael R. Carter and Peter D. Little
This paper introduces a special issue exploring persistent poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. As a set, these papers break new ground in exploring the dynamics of structural poverty, integrating qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis and adopting an asset-based approach to the study of changes in well-being, especially in response to a wide range of different (climatic, health, political, and other) shocks. In this introductory essay, we frame these studies, building directly on evolving conceptualisations of poverty in Africa.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 167-177, lead article
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.
The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: An Asset-Based Approach
February 2006
Carter, Michael R. and Christopher B. Barrett
Longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the
nature and extent of poverty. While a number of studies have exploited this type of data
to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty, this
paper develops an asset-based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to
distinguish deep-rooted, persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally
with time due to systemic growth processes. Drawing on the economic theory of poverty
traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies, this paper briefly discusses some feasible
estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term, persistent
structural poverty. We also propose an extension of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class of
poverty measures to provide a natural measure of long-term welfare status. The paper
closes with reflections on how asset-based poverty can be used to underwrite the design
of persistent poverty reduction strategies.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):178-199, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.
Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar
February 2006
Barrett, Christopher B., Paswel Phiri Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo and Justine Wangila
This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household’s asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households' defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 248-277, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.
Fractal Poverty Traps
January 2006
Barrett, Christopher B. and Brent M. Swallow
This paper offers an informal theory of a special sort of poverty trap, one in which multiple dynamic equilibria exist simultaneously at multiple (micro, meso and/or macro) scales of analysis and are self-reinforcing through feedback effects. Small adjustments at any one of these levels are unlikely to move the system away from its dominant, stable dynamic equilibrium. Governments, markets and communities are simultaneously weak in places characterized by fractal poverty traps. No unit operates at a high-level equilibrium in such a system. All seem simultaneously trapped in low-level equilibria. The fractal poverty traps formulation suggests four interrelated strategic emphases for poverty reduction strategies. In World Development 34(1):1-15, 2006
Risk and Asset Management in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Implications for Growth and Social Protection
June 2005
Barrett, Christopher B. and Michael R. Carter
This note suggests a behavioral approach to poverty and vulnerability that escapes the standard, troublesome dependence on an arbitrary money-metric poverty line. More importantly, our approach, which is based on an empirically estimable dynamic asset poverty threshold, has immediate implications for both the linkage between poverty, risk and growth and for the design of social protection policies. One can identify the dynamic asset poverty threshold either by testing for asset smoothing behavior or via tests for bifurcated/split accumulation dynamics. We illustrate the concept and the estimation of dynamic asset poverty thresholds through brief applications to Ethiopia and Honduras.
Poverty Traps and Safety Nets
April 2005
Barrett, Christopher B. and John G. McPeak
This paper uses data from northern Kenya to argue that the concept of poverty traps needs to be taken seriously, and that if poverty traps indeed exist, then safety nets become all the more important. However, as presently practiced, safety nets based on food aid appear to be failing in northern Kenya.
In Poverty, Inequality and Development: Essays in Honor of Erik Thorbecke, Alain de Janvry and Ravi Kanbur, eds.,
Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2005
Rural Poverty Dynamics: Development Policy Implications
March 2005
Barrett, Christopher B.
This paper summarizes a few key findings from a rich and growing body of research on the nature of rural poverty and, especially, the development policy implications of relatively recent findings and ongoing work. Perhaps the most fundamental lesson of recent research on rural poverty is the need to distinguish transitory from chronic poverty. The existence of widespread chronic poverty also raises the possibility of poverty traps. I discuss some of the empirical and theoretical challenges of identifying and explaining poverty traps. In policy terms, the distinction between transitory and chronic poverty implies a need to distinguish between "cargo net" and "safety net" interventions and a central role for effective targeting of interventions. Prepared for invited presentation to the 25th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, August 17, 2003, Durban, South Africa.
In Reshaping Agricultures Contributions to Society, David Colman and Nick Vink (eds.), Oxford: Blackwell, 2005
On the Relevance of Identities, Communities, Groups and Networks to the Economics of Poverty Alleviation
January 2005
Barrett, Christopher B.
In The Social Economics of Poverty: Identities, Groups, Communities and Networks, Christopher B. Barrett (ed.), London: Routledge, 2005:
This book aims to advance economists’ understanding of such questions
by exploring how individuals’ social and moral identities affect their
membership in communities, groups, and networks, how those identities and
social affiliations affect microeconomic behavior, and how the resulting
behaviors affect poverty. Humans do not live in isolation: their behavior
depends on the relations that shape their world. Variation in relationships can
perhaps lead to predictable variation in behaviors and economic outcomes,
which, in turn, affect social relationships through subtle feedback mechanisms.
Partly as a consequence, the dynamics of human social interactions and the
effects on persistent poverty have become a very active area of economic
research.
Better Technology, Better Plots or Better Farmers? Identifying Changes In Productivity And Risk Among Malagasy Rice Farmers
November 2004
Barrett, Christopher B., Christine M. Moser, Oloro V. McHugh, and Joeli Barison
We introduce a method for properly attributing observed productivity and risk changes among new production methods, farmers, and plots by controlling for farmer and plot heterogeneity. Results from Madagascar show that the new system of rice intensification (SRI) is indeed a superior technology. Although about half of the observed productivity gains appear due to farmer characteristics rather than SRI itself, the technology generates the estimated average output gains of more than 84%. The increased estimated yield risk associated with SRI would nonetheless make it unattractive to many farmers within the standard range of relative risk aversion.
In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(4):869-888 (November).
Decomposing Producer Price Risk: A Policy Analysis Tool With An Application to Northern Kenyan Livestock Markets
August 2004
Barrett, Christopher B., and Winnie K. Luseno
This paper introduces a simple method of price risk decomposition that determines the extent to which producer price risk is attributable to volatile inter-market margins, intra-day variation, intra-week (day of week) variation, or terminal market price variability. We apply the method to livestock markets in northern Kenya, a setting of dramatic price volatility where price stabilization is a live policy issue. In this particular application, we find that large, variable inter-market basis is the most important factor in explaining producer price risk in animals typically traded between markets. Local market conditions explain most price risk in other markets, in which traded animals rarely exit the region. Variability in terminal market prices accounts for relatively little price risk faced by pastoralists in the dry lands of northern Kenya although this is the focus of most present policy prescriptions under discussion. In Food Policy 29(4):393-405
Food Aid Targeting, Shocks and Private Transfers Among East African Pastoralists
July 2005
Lentz, Erin and Christopher B. Barrett
Public transfers of food aid are intended largely to support vulnerable
populations in times of stress. We use high frequency panel data among
Ethiopian and Kenyan pastoralists to test the efficacy of food aid targeting
under three different targeting modalities, food aid’s responsiveness to
different types of covariate shocks, and its relationship to private transfers.
We find that, in this region, self-targeting food-for-work or indicatortargeted
free food distribution more effectively reach the poor than do food
aid distributed according to community-based targeting. Food aid flows do
not respond significantly to either covariate, community-level income or
asset shocks. Rather, food aid flows appear to respond mainly to more
readily observable rainfall measures. Finally, food aid does not appear to
affect private transfers in any meaningful way, either by crowding out
private gifts to recipient households nor by stimulating increased gifts by
food aid recipients.
Dynamic Poverty Traps and Rural Livelihoods
December 2004
Barrett, Christopher B. and Brent M. Swallow
This chapter brings together two concepts in development economics: (1) the concept of poverty traps, which explains the co-existence of groups of national economies that continually grow, invest and become prosperous with other groups of economies that stagnate, under-invest and remain poor; and (2) the concept of livelihood strategies, which is used to explain the interconnections between asset portfolios, multiplex strategies of groups and individuals, and outcomes for the welfare of the poor. Implications for applied research, rural development policy and planning are drawn out.
In Rural Livelihoods and Poverty Reduction Policies, edited by F. Ellis and H. A. Freeman, London, Routledge, 2004.
Smallholder Identities and Social Networks:
The Challenge of Improving Productivity and Welfare
April 2004
Barrett, Christopher B.
This paper proposes a general framework for resolving the puzzle of how to reconcile the mass of recent evidence on the salutary effects of social capital at the individual level with the casual, larger-scale observation that social embeddedness appears negatively correlated with productivity and material measures of welfare. It advances an analytical framework that not only explains individual productivity or technology adoption behavior as a function of the characteristics or behaviors of others, but that also explains the aggregate properties of social systems characterized by persistently low productivity. Examples from Kenya and Madagascar are used to illustrate the phenomena discussed.
In The Social Economics of Poverty: Identities, Groups, Communities and Networks, Christopher B. Barrett, editor, London: Routledge, 2005.
Mixing Qualitative and Quantitative Methods of
Analyzing Poverty Dynamics
March 2004
Barrett, Christopher B.
This paper outlines my current thinking and recent experience in mixing qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis so as to gain a firmer and more useful understanding of poverty dynamics, especially in rural Kenya. We first explore the very real differences between qualitative and quantitive poverty analysis methods, differences that make them useful complements. Then we debunk a few myths about differences that do not really exist. Finally, I discuss key lessons learned from four multi-year research projects in Kenya that have tried to implement mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods with a range of researchers from animal science, anthropology, economics, geography, range science, sociology and soil science.
In Quantitative and Qualitative Methods for Poverty Analysis: Proceedings of the Workshop Held on 11 March, 2004, Nairobi Kenya,
Walter Odhiambo, John M. Omiti, and David I. Muthaka, editors,
Nairobi, Kenya: Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA)
Indices and Manifestations of Poverty: Informing Anti-Poverty
Policy Choices
March 2004
Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Paswel P. Marenya, Frank Place and Christopher B. Barrett Kenya has entered the 21st century with over 50% of its population classified as
absolutely poor in that they live on less than a dollar a day. Per capita income is lower
than at the end of the 1960’s. Income, assets, and access to essential services are
unequally distributed. The country has made important economic reforms, improving
macroeconomic management, liberalizing markets and trade, and widening the scope for
private sector activity in the hope of improving economic growth and welfare for
Kenyans. Yet, despite these reforms the country has experienced little growth and
poverty continues to afflict an ever-larger segment of its citizenry, especially in rural
areas. Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya
Baye, Francis Menjo
Growth and redistribution effects of poverty changes in Cameroon
December 2006
Francis Baye This paper studies the decomposition of poverty changes in Cameroon. Specifically, it reviews theoretical frameworks for growth-redistribution decomposition analyses, presents the data and poverty measures and estimates the growth-redistribution components of changes in measured poverty by the Shapley value-based approach using Cameroon’s household surveys. By all the P class of measures, poverty increased significantly between 1984 and 1996. The growth components overaccounted for the increase, although shifts in national, rural and semi-urban distributions marginally mitigated the worse effects on the population. A decline in mean incomes as well as adverse distributional shifts contributed to a significant increase in urban poverty during the same period. These findings corroborate the general information in the literature that growth effects tend to dominate the effects of changes in the distribution of income. These results illustrate the potential contribution of distributionally neutral growth in household incomes to poverty alleviation in Cameroon. Although redistribution also has an important role to play, it should be accepted that there must be severe limits to what can be achieved by growth neutral redistribution. Growth in household incomes appears more likely to be essential for long-term poverty reduction and will be more effective if poverty alleviation programmes are targeted disproportionately in favour of rural and semi-urban areas. Paper prepared for the conference “African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage” Cape Town, South Africa October 2004 In Journal of African Economies 15(4): 543-570, 2006
Structure of Sectoral Decomposition of Aggregate
Poverty Changes in Cameroon
July 2005
Francis Menjo Baye
This paper defines an exact decomposition rule based on the Shapley Value for assigning
entitlements in distributive analysis and assesses the within- and between-sector
contributions to changes in aggregate poverty. Between 1984 and 1996 poverty remained
a rural phenomenon in Cameroon. It became more widespread, deeper and severer in
both rural and urban areas, but more so in urban than rural areas. While the within sector effects disproportionately accounted for the increase in poverty in the period
1984-1996, the between-sector contributions in both rural and semi-urban areas played a
mitigating role on the worse effects of the increase in poverty. These findings indicate the
potential positive feedback effects of migration and the associated remittances as an
effective strategy used by migrants to left their families and villages out of the worse
effects of poverty. The implication of this interpretation is that decision-makers need to
better understand the factors that push or pull potential migrants. Rural-urban mobility
could, therefore, be viewed as a strategy used by households to moderate the worse
effects of poverty and a vector of shared growth. The implications for public policy, in
terms of open unemployment and associated social and insecurity problems at the
receiving end, point to the wisdom of addressing the push-factors via targeting more in
favour of rural areas.
Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005,
Accra, Ghana
Bekele, Wagayehu
Analysis of farmers preferences for development intervention programs:
A case study of subsistence farmers from Eastern Ethiopian Highlands.
July 2005
Wagayehu Bekele
The aim of this paper is to better understand farmers’ perception of the relevance of
different development intervention programs. Farmers’ subjective ranking of
agricultural problems and their preference for development intervention are elicited
using a stated preference method. The factors influencing these preferences are
determined using a random utility model. The study is based on a survey conducted
in the Hunde-Lafto area of the Eastern Ethiopian Highlands. Individual interviews
were conducted with 145 randomly selected farm households using semi-structured
questionnaires. The study suggests that drought, soil erosion and, shortage of
cultivable land are high priority agricultural production problems for farmers. Low
market prices for farm products and high prices of purchased inputs also came out as
major problems for the majority of farmers. Farmers’ preferences for development
intervention fall into four major categories, market, irrigation, resettlement, and soil
and water conservation. Multinomial logit analysis of the factors influencing these
preferences revealed that farmer’s specific socio-economic circumstances, and
subjective ranking of agricultural problems play a major role. It is also shown that
preferences for some interventions are complimentary and need to be addressed
simultaneously. Recognition and understanding of these factors, affecting the
acceptability of development policies for micro level implementation, will have
significant contribution to improve macro level policy formulation. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005,
Accra, Ghana In African Development Review, 18(2): 183-204, 2006.
Bellemare, Marc F.
An Ordered Tobit of Market Participation: Evidence from Kenya and Ethiopia
May 2006
Bellemare, Marc F. and Barrett, Christopher B.
Do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume
decisions simultaneously or sequentially? This article develops a two-stage
econometric model that allows testing between these two competing hypotheses
regarding household-level market behavior. The first stage models the household’s
choice of whether to be a net buyer, autarkic, or a net seller in the market. The
second stage models the quantity bought (sold) for net buyers (sellers) based on observable
household characteristics. Using household data from Kenya and Ethiopia
on livestock markets, we find evidence in favor of sequential decision-making, the
welfare implications of which we discuss.
In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2):324-337
Berg, Ernest
Prospects and Challenges of Agricultural Technology Market Linkage under Liberalization in Ghana: Evidence from a micro-data
October 2004
Tsegaye Yilma, Ernst Berg and
Thomas Berger There is a general consensus that bad economic policies, among other factors, are to blame
for the poor performance of economies in sub Saharan African (SSA). However, there is no
similar consensus on the effect of economic reforms on poverty alleviation, a primary goal
of any economy in the region. This paper looked into the effect of macro-economic
reforms, particularly the removal of subsidized agricultural credit for irrigator farmers in
Ghana, a pioneering reform country in SSA. A theoretical model of this scenario is
constructed in which it is shown that, under multiple market imperfection, farmers resort to
alternative financial sources to finance irrigation. Particularly in the presence of off-farm
alternative, farmers divide their labor resource between irrigation farming and off-farm
employment. The long term implication of a predominant dependence on off-farm income
for financing irrigation farming will be an induced increase in family size. This model is
subsequently tested and validated with a household data collected from northern Ghana.
Household labor endowment and off-farm participation have a positive and significant
effect on household irrigation decisions. This implies that, irrigation and off-farm
employment are complimentary activities, which indicates a possible induced family size
increase.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004,
Cape Town, South Africa
Berger, Thomas
Prospects and Challenges of Agricultural Technology Market Linkage under Liberalization in Ghana: Evidence from a micro-data
October 2004
Tsegaye Yilma, Ernst Berg and
Thomas Berger There is a general consensus that bad economic policies, among other factors, are to blame
for the poor performance of economies in sub Saharan African (SSA). However, there is no
similar consensus on the effect of economic reforms on poverty alleviation, a primary goal
of any economy in the region. This paper looked into the effect of macro-economic
reforms, particularly the removal of subsidized agricultural credit for irrigator farmers in
Ghana, a pioneering reform country in SSA. A theoretical model of this scenario is
constructed in which it is shown that, under multiple market imperfection, farmers resort to
alternative financial sources to finance irrigation. Particularly in the presence of off-farm
alternative, farmers divide their labor resource between irrigation farming and off-farm
employment. The long term implication of a predominant dependence on off-farm income
for financing irrigation farming will be an induced increase in family size. This model is
subsequently tested and validated with a household data collected from northern Ghana.
Household labor endowment and off-farm participation have a positive and significant
effect on household irrigation decisions. This implies that, irrigation and off-farm
employment are complimentary activities, which indicates a possible induced family size
increase.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004,
Cape Town, South Africa
Berlage, Lode
Genocide and land scarcity: Can Rwandan rural households manage?
October 2004
Marijke Verpoorten and Lode Berlage During the nineties Rwandan households faced severe shocks of war and genocide. In addition,
the structural problem of land scarcity remains unsolved. How did Rwandan households
manage? This is an important question from a development perspective, but also from a security
perspective, because uneven development raises the risk of renewed conflict. To find an answer,
we study welfare gains and losses in a sample of 189 rural households in two Rwandan provinces
over the period 1990-2002. In our sample, many households were severely affected by the
genocide. In addition, poverty and inequality increased. Moreover, we observe a lot of income
mobility. Only one quarter of the households remained in the same income quintile over time.
Especially the households headed by widows and prisoner’s wives moved downward in the
income distribution. Households who reduced their dependence on subsistence agriculture
moved upward. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004,
Cape Town, South Africa
Beyene, Fekadu
Collective Action and Informal Institutions: The Case of Agropastoralists of Eastern Ethiopia
June 2006
Beyene, Fekadu
An increasing scarcity of water for crop farming and livestock watering among agropastoralists of Mieso in Eastern Ethiopia has largely disrupted their livelihoods. Indigenous water well maintenance and government initiated rainwater harvesting are two important collective actions common among these communities. With the aim of examining collective action institutions in both cases, we collected data from different stakeholders and individual members. Theoretically, low level of physical assets (action resource) limits participation of an individual in collective action. In our case, other factors such as environmental uncertainty and lower level of dependence on the resource have been found to be more significant in limiting membership than limitation of assets. Poor agropastoralists depend on their informal networks to have access to other assets. This enables them to maintain their membership. Moreover, there is a difference between self-organized and imposed collective action in terms of rule enforcement and sanctioning. Institutions also produce different incentives in that free riding leads to automatic exclusion in water harvesting, whereas poor members who continue free riding can benefit from the water well. In evaluating the success, we conclude that technical capacity of members in benefiting from their collective action is limited and deserves more attention than their ability to develop effective collective action institutions. Technical capacity development of user groups needs to be central in policy and programs addressing this. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on
“Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,”
held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
Bhavnani, Rikhil
From Independence to Economic Reform: Rural Poverty in Ghana from 1967-1997
July 2004
Markus Goldstein and Rikhil Bhavnani Estimates of poverty and inequality are constructed more accurately from
household survey rather than national accounts data, since growth in the latter per force
demonstrates that any growth leads to poverty reduction. Household surveys, however,
were only systematically conducted from the 1980s onwards, at the prompting of the
academic community and the World Bank. Most examinations of poverty reduction and
inequality therefore limit themselves to trends since the 1980s, failing to take a
sufficiently long duree of their evolution. Similarly, assessments of structural adjustment
programs are usually conducted at the macro-level, with before-after or plan-outcome
analysis, leaving aside examinations of microeconomic changes, partly due to the
absence of such data. The ensuing discussions on poverty, inequality and the efficacy of
structural adjustment programs (and macroeconomic policy more generally) thus often
form a flimsy basis for national and international policy making, leading many to call for
radical changes in data gathering and dissemination practices. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Bhorat, Haroon
Poverty and Well-Being in Post-Apartheid South Africa
January 2006
Bhorat, Haroon and Ravi Kanbur
“The end of the first decade of democracy in South Africa naturally resulted in a wide-ranging set of political events to mark this date. South Africa’s formal baptism as a democracy in April 1994 received international acclaim and recognition — and to this day serves a model for other countries undergoing difficult and protracted political transitions. However, perhaps the greatest struggle since the early post-apartheid days has been the attempt to undo the economic vestiges of the system of racial exclusivity. Alongside the political evaluation and praise, therefore, there has been a vigorous local research programme broadly aimed at measuring the changes in well-being that occurred during this ten-year period. In addition, a number of studies have also concentrated on measuring the performance of the government in meeting its stated objectives of reducing poverty, inequality and unemployment. This volume brings together some of the core pieces of academic research that have been prominent in this ten-year review, focusing on poverty and policy in post-apartheid South Africa...” Introduction to Poverty and Policy in Post-Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.
The Relative Inflation Experience of Poor Urban South African Households: 1997-2002
October 2005
Bhorat, Haroon and Oosthuizen, Morné
Much work has been done in South Africa on the relationship between the labour market and
household poverty, as well as more generally the association of differentially sourced incomes
to household poverty and inequality. The notion is that it is access to incomes, or lack
thereof, which lies at the heart of characterising inequality and poverty in the society. Clearly
though, a critical intermediary to income access remains the fluctuations in the real values of
these incomes, despite controlling for access to income. This line of enquiry – namely the
role of relative final price movements in affecting households across the income distribution –is a new one for the post-apartheid period, with its local intellectual origins lying in Kahn
(1985). At one level the study aims to identify and quantify the impact of relative price
movements on household poverty levels, with a key aim being to identify those products that
are critical to indigent households’ vulnerability. At a more generic level, the paper is
implicitly a representation of how the macroeconomic environment is able to, and indeed
does, impact on household welfare. Ultimately, the paper hopes to deliver a detailed analysis
not only of the construction of an appropriate consumer price index for South Africa, but also,
through the use of income and expenditure survey data, the impact of reported price
movements on inflation for households at different points in the national income distribution.
Specifically, this study’s two main objectives are, firstly, to derive inflation rates for urban households grouped according to expenditure deciles and, secondly, to identify some of the
key product categories responsible for the largest shares of inflation of the poorest 40% of
urban households.
Evolution of the Labour Market: 1995-2002
December 2004
Bhorat, Haroon, and Morné Oosthuizen
Since 1994, the South African economy has undergone significant changes with the government implementing various policies aimed at redressing the injustices of the past, fleshing out the welfare system and improving competitiveness as South Africa becomes increasingly integrated into the global economy. These policies have, directly or indirectly, impacted on the labour market and, consequently, on the lives of millions of South Africans.
This paper’s chief objective is the analysis of some of the changes in the South African labour market in the post-apartheid era. The period, between 1995 and 2002, began with much promise and many challenges as the economy liberalised and normal trade relations were resumed with the rest of the world. Soon after the African National Congress came into power, the macro-economic strategy named “Growth, Employment and Redistribution” (or GEAR) was unveiled in 1996. This strategy predicted, amongst other things, employment growth averaging 270 000 jobs per annum from 1996 to 2000, with the number of new jobs created rising over time from 126 000 in 1996 to 409 000 in 2000 (GEAR 1996). Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, these projections were not realised. In fact, in terms of the labour market, the experience of the second half of the 1990s appears to have fallen short of even the baseline scenario contained in the GEAR document, which projected a net increase in (non-agricultural formal) employment of slightly more than 100 000 jobs per annum.
In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.
Bigsten, Arne
Can Africa Reduce Poverty by Half by 2015?
The Case for a Pro-Poor Growth Strategy
June 2005
Arne Bigsten and Abebe Shimeles
This study uses simulations to explore the possibility of achieving the target of halving
the percentage of people living in extreme poverty in Africa by 2015. A pro-poor
growth scenario and a constant inequality scenario are compared. It is shown how
initial levels of inequality and mean per capita income determine the cumulative
growth and inequality reduction required to achieve the target. The simulations show
that small changes in income distribution have a large impact on the possibility of
halving poverty. It is shown that the trade-off between growth and inequality varies
greatly among countries and that their policy choices thus are quite different. In some
cases small changes in income distribution can have a large effect on poverty, while
in others a strong focus on growth is the only viable option. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005,
Accra, Ghana
Bishop, Elizabeth
The Policy and Practice of Educational Service Provision for Pastoralists in Tanzania
June 2006
Bishop, Elizabeth
This paper will explore the context within which policies concerning education in
pastoralist areas in Tanzania have been formulated and implemented. It will look at
the way in which international and national agendas concerning pastoralism and
education are manifested in the policy and practice of educational service provision in
pastoralist areas in Tanzania. It will also examine the practice of educational
provision in these areas, and assess the impact this provision is likely to have in terms
of pastoralist poverty. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on
“Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,”
held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
Blankson, Theresa
Household Savings in Ghana: Does Policy Matter?
July 2004
Peter Quartey and Theresa Blankson The level of financial savings in recent years has been low by African standard and
although various monetary policies have been pursued in Ghana to liberalize the financial
sector, the level of savings has not increased substantially to accelerate the economy
towards the growth path. Ironically, the few studies that have examined savings
behaviour in Ghana have focused on aggregate savings (national or private savings)
which does not sometimes reveal enough on household savings. Secondly, these studies
have not examined the macro-micro inter-relationship between household savings and
macro-financial policy. This study mainly aims to examine this relationship using the
Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS) Waves III and IV. The paper found that macrofinancial
sector policies pursued between 1991/92 and 1998/99 did not have appreciable
effect on household savings. Secondly, children and the aged on average had higher
savings balances than the working population, contrary to the life cycle hypothesis. In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Blunch, Niels-Hugo
Shared Sectoral Growth: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe
June 2005
Niels-Hugo Blunch and Dorte Verner
This paper examines agriculture, industry and service sector growth in Côte d’Ivoire,
Ghana, and Zimbabwe over more than three decades. The analyses find at least one long-run sectoral relationship in each country. This indicates the existence of a large degree of
interdependence in long-run sectoral growth, implying that the sectors “grow together”
or, similarly, that there are externalities or spillovers between sectors. This also provides
evidence against the basic dual economy model, which implies that a long-run relation
cannot exist between agricultural and industrial output. The impulse response and short-run sectoral growth analyses support these results, as both imply the existence of a
positive link between growth in industry and growth in agriculture. Policy implications
are also discussed; these include directing more attention towards the interdependencies
in sectoral growth broadly defined. In particular, our findings have implications for the
design of education and health programs, as well. This improved understanding of intersectoral dynamics at all levels may facilitate policy implementation aimed at increasing economic growth—and thereby ultimately improving peoples’ livelihoods—in Africa. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005,
Accra, Ghana
Maternal Literacy and Numeracy Skills and Child Health in Ghana
May 2005
Niels-Hugo Blunch This paper examines the impact of maternal literacy and numeracy skills and schooling on the production of children’s health in Ghana. The analysis considers child health inputs, including pre- and post-natal care and vaccinations, and child health outputs, including illnesses and mortality. Previous studies of the determinants of child health have mostly been limited to investigating the impact of maternal schooling only and, as a consequence, largely have not considered skills, including literacy and numeracy skills and
health knowledge, and also have ignored alternative routes to acquiring skills, such as adult literacy programs. Analyzing a recent household survey for Ghana, this paper addresses both of these issues. Preliminary results for a specification where all regressors are treated as predetermined indicate that skills are largely not important once education is controlled for but at the same time also indicate a positive association between adult literacy course participation and child health. The latter points towards the potentially important role of adult literacy programs in promoting child health by the acquisition of health knowledge by participants in these programs, which is something that has previously received little to no attention in the economics literature. In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Adult Literacy Programmes in Ghana: An Evaluation
June 2004
Niels-Hugo Blunch and Claus C. Pörtner This paper examines the effect of adult literacy program participation
on household consumption in Ghana. We find that in most cases
there is no significant effect on consumption from participation after
allowing for self-selection into the program. For households where no
adults have completed any formal education there is, however, a substantial
positive and statistically significant effect on household consumption,
pointing towards the potential importance of adult literacy
programs for the parts of the population which have not participated
in the formal education system. Possible explanations for why
adult literacy program participation does not seem to significantly affect
households where some formal education has been attained are
explored, as well. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Boakye-Yiadom, Louis
The Evolution of Welfare in Ghana: A Rural-Urban Perspective
July 2004
Louis Boakye-Yiadom Welfare patterns in Ghana are characterised by widespread rural-urban disparities, with the welfare of rural residents lagging behind that of their urban counterparts. This paper argues that Ghana’s rural-urban welfare gap is influenced by the concentration – in urban areas – of business and industrial activity, and is sustained by the resultant inequalities in education, access to healthcare, and basic amenities. Given the pervasiveness and self-perpetuating nature of the disparities, the paper calls for a major policy initiative to address the imbalance. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Boccanfuso, Dorothée
Macroeconomic growth, sectorial quality of growth and poverty in developing countries: measure and application to Burkina Faso
October 2004
Dorothée Boccanfuso and Tambi Samuel Kabore Economic growth generally refers to GDP growth. The studies on the link between growth and
poverty dynamic (Datt and Ravallion, 1992; Kakwani, 1997; Shorrocks, 1999) measure growth by
mean household per capita expenditures. Furthermore, many countries experience at the same time
economic growth and growing poverty. It is therefore important to establish a link between these
two types of growth. This key link allows a formal shift from macroeconomic growth (GDP growth)
to mean per capita household expenditure growth.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the link between macroeconomic growth and mean per capita
household expenditure growth with the evidence drawn from Burkina Faso data. The paper also
analyzes the impact of sectoral growth on poverty using Shapley value-based decomposition
approach. National Accounts consumption - which is smaller - gives greater poverty incidences for
1994 and 1998 compared to the incidence from the surveys’ consumption. An annual 3.99% increase
in real per capita consumption based on the survey gives a 13.37% decrease in poverty incidence, while
a 6.59% annual growth in GDP yields only 6.59% decrease in poverty incidence. Agricultural sector
growth accounts for at least 80% of the decline in poverty incidence, gap and severity. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004,
Cape Town, South Africa
Bogale, Ayalneh
An Inquiry into the role of personal wealth in the pastoralist - agropastoralist
conflict resolution in Yerer and Daketa Valleys, Eastern Ethiopia
May 2005
Ayalneh Bogale and Benedikt Korf
Capitalizing on the mobility of livestock is one of the major ways in which pastoralists have managed
ecological uncertainties and risks, as it enables them the opportunistic use of the resources. However,
agricultural encroachment onto rangelands by nearby agro-pastoralists has led to a shortage in grazing
area and threatened the mobility of the pastoralists. As this process leads to a significant disruption and
weakening of the risk-management systems of pastoralists, they seek for various institutional
arrangements with agropastoralists to enable them access to common grazing land.
Based on an exploratory survey and data derived from interview of 146 households in eastern Ethiopia,
this paper uses an adaptation of the sequential rationality game theoretical model and institutional
analysis to discrete choice models. The analytical framework, in its entirety, presents a simple model of
household and community level decision-making, in which they are concerned about their welfare along
many different dimensions.
Choice of institutional arrangement, namely no opinion, reciprocal, sharing milk and the right to use
milk, is modelled using multinomial logit discrete choice procedure. The model chi-squared statistic is
significant at the 1% level of probability. For all arrangements, there are three to five observable
characteristics of household that provide statistically significant predictive power for practicing a given
arrangement. The paper argues resource scarcity may enhance the bargaining position of asset-poor
members of an agro-pastoral society and urges the wealthier agropastoralists to comply with a nonviolent
resolution of competing claims towards a resource sharing arrangement. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005,
Accra, Ghana
Botchie, George
Poverty Reduction Efforts in Ghana: The Skill Development Option
July 2004
George Botchie and William Ahadzie Ghana, like many developing countries needs to improve economy-wide labour
productivity in order to achieve a competitive edge in the rapidly changing economic and
technology-driven world. But an equally significant driver of improved labour
productivity is the effort to reduce endemic poverty in a country that has a low
technological base. Flexibility and productivity of the labour force are dependent on the
competent skilled workers. Generally, skilled workers and technicians enhance the
quality and efficiency of product development, production, and maintenance, and they
supervise and train workers with lesser skills (World Bank 1998 13). For the poor, labour
in its crudest form, is a key asset and adding value to that asset could offer a route out of
poverty. But the stock of skills required by the poor goes beyond technical and
entrepreneurial abilities (ILO InFocus Programme 2004). They need skills that make
them confident and capable of exploring and trying new income-earning opportunities
within the labour market. Among the critical competencies are skills such as numeracy
and literacy, social and communication skills, problem-solving and decision-making,
negotiation skills, learning and training to promote social inclusion including
understanding of social rights, “citizenship skills”, self organisation. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Brown, Douglas R.
Livelihood Strategies in the Rural Kenyan Highlands
December 2006
Brown, Douglas R., Emma C. Stephens, James Okuro Ouma, Festus M. Murithi and
Christopher B. Barrett
The concept of a livelihood strategy has become central to development practice
in recent years. Nonetheless, precise identification of livelihoods in quantitative data has
remained methodologically elusive. This paper uses cluster analysis methods to
operationalize the concept of livelihood strategies in household data and then uses the
resulting strategy-specific income distributions to test whether hypothesized outcome
differences between livelihoods indeed exist. Using data from Kenya’s central and
western highlands, we identify five distinct livelihood strategies that exhibit statistically
significant differences in mean per capita incomes and stochastic dominance orderings
that establish clear welfare rankings among livelihood strategies. Multinomial regression
analysis identifies geographic, demographic and financial determinants of livelihood
choice. The results should facilitate targeting of interventions designed to improve
household livelihoods.
In the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1(1):21-35
Buchs, Thierry
Banking Competition and Efficiency in Ghana
October 2004
Thierry Buchs and Johan Mathisen This paper assesses the degree of bank competition and discusses efficiency with regard to
banks’ financial intermediation in Ghana. By applying panel data to variables derived from a
theoretical model, we find evidence for a noncompetitive market structure in the Ghanaian
banking system, which may be hampering financial intermediation. We argue that the
structure, as well as the other market characteristics, constitutes an indirect barrier to entry
shielding the large profits in the Ghanaian banking system. In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Burger, Ronelle
Geography as Destiny: Considering the spatial dimensions of poverty and deprivation in South Africa
October 2004
Ronelle Burger, Servaas van der Berg, Sarel van der Walt and Derek Yu This paper’s main contribution to the discussion about the geographical dimensions of poverty
traps is a careful description of how the nature and depth of poverty and deprivation differ by
geography. Conventionally, much of the analysis of poverty has focused on money-metric
poverty lines. However, as Amartya Sen and others have shown, welfare is a rich and complex
concept that cannot be adequately captured by income and expenditure. To avoid the
arbitrariness of a poverty line and the one-dimensionality of money-metric poverty measure,
the paper opts for Totally Fuzzy and Relative indices of poverty – as pioneered by Cheli and
Lemmi (1995). It provides a multi-dimensional account of poverty and deprivation without
assigning arbitrary weights to the different poverty dimensions. Rather, the method weighs
poverty dimensions according to the frequency of deprivation in this dimension among
members of the population: the more common deprivation is in a specific dimension, the less
weight the specific dimension will receive in the calculation of the index. Instead of a sharp line
dividing the rich from the poor, the variable’s bottom category is defined as marking extreme
poverty and the top category as representing affluence, with everything in-between assigned a
score to indicate the degree to which these individuals or households can be regarded as poor. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004,
Cape Town, South Africa
BurnSilver, S.
Beyond Group Ranch Subdivision: Collective Action for Livestock Mobility, Ecological Viability and Livelihoods
June 2006
BurnSilver, S. and E. Mwangi
Pastoralism is the dominant land use in 25% of the world’s landscapes and comprises the basic subsistence strategy of 20 million households (Galaty and Johnson 1990). These rangeland ecosystems largely occur in regions too dry for rainfed agriculture, and are characterized by recurrent drought and strong intra- and inter-seasonal variability in climate (Ellis and Galvin 1994, Galvin et al. 2001). Historically, the primary pastoral response to minimize risk has been mobility. Opportunistic and extensive seasonal livestock movements provided access to water and forage resources that were heterogeneous (i.e., patchy) in space and time. This mobility occurred largely in the context of communal land tenure systems – wherein flexible use rights were negotiated through layered memberships in kinship, clan, and lineage groupings (Bekure et al. 1991, Lane and Moorehead 1994, Turner 1999). Recent developments in ecological and common property theories clearly support the logic of pastoral mobility to compensate for resource heterogeneity (Ellis and Swift 1988, Ostrom et al. 1999, Illius and O’Connor 2000). However, over the past three decades, a combination of government policy and internal drivers has pushed pastoral systems in the opposite direction, towards privatization of communal rangelands characterized by little flexibility (Galaty 1992, Niamir-Fuller 1999, Blench 2001). Many scientists are concerned this transition from mobile systems to continuous grazing of private parcels will lead to ecological degradation and spiraling poverty among pastoral households, and a gradual decrease in both system stability and sustainability (Ellis et al. 2001, Agrawal 2002, Reid et al. 2003, Boone and Hobbs 2004) Presented at the Policy Research Conference on
“Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,”
held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
Bussolo, Maurizio
Poverty Reduction Strategies in a Budget-Constrained Economy: The Case of Ghana
February 2003
Maurizio Bussolo and Jeffery I. Round Analyses of responses to reforms in Ghana seem to indicate that current policies may be benefiting different segments of society disproportionately. Also, experience in the 1990s suggests that recurring budget deficits may adversely affect reform and poverty alleviation programmes. The aim of this paper is to carry out some experiments using variants of a stylised CGE model, to ascertain the possible effects on poverty of a range of budget-neutral redistributive income transfers. The analysis is based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Ghana for the year 1993, which has been substantially modified for the present application. The CGE model is a real-side, static model and therefore excludes the monetary and financial sectors and is designed in the tradition of other OECD Development Centre models. The experimental design follows one employed by Adelman and Robinson (1978) for Korea and Chia, Wahba and Whalley (1992) for the Côte d’Ivoire. However the experiments are designed with a view to examining the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications, within otherwise broadly similar, SAM-based model structures. The main outcome is to show that the results are very sensitive to (long and short run) closure rules, to the financing rules in a budget-neutral setting, and to the method of computing poverty ratios (parametric and non-parametric approaches). A new decomposition method is introduced to assist in interpreting the results. A wide range of simulations demonstrates that poverty is not eradicated via redistributive income transfers, and may even increase, especially in the short run, after taking into account the secondary effects. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana
Bwalya, Samuel M.
Rural Livelihoods and Collective Action in Joint Forest Management in Zambia
February 2004
Bwalya, Samuel M.
This study examines rural livelihoods and collective action in Joint Forest Management (JFM) in
six local forest communities in three of the nine provinces of Zambia. The role of forests and
woodlands resources to rural livelihood strategies and rural income is examined and the
determinants of collective action are identified and discussed. Our analysis of rural livelihood
strategies suggests that both agriculture and forests are important sources of rural livelihoods and
contributors to rural income. However, although average income from agriculture is relatively
smaller than income from forest products there are more people earning income from the former
than from the latter. We also find that although women appear to be more dependent on forests
and woodlands for subsistence, it is rather the men who more dependent on forests for
commercial income. With respect to the determinants of collective action in local forest
management, results from this study suggest that household income and income inequality across
households, scarcity of forest products, organizational and social capital, and individual prior
experience with collective action programs promote collective action whereas market integration
and proximity to urban markets (which some form of regional heterogeneity) weakens
cooperation. It was also evident that programs which support both agricultural development and
forest conservation will have the greatest impact on local behavior, poverty reduction and longterm
local forest management in the study area.
Final Report for SAGA Competitive Research Grants Program
Return to MAIN AUTHORS PAGE
|
Return to TOP OF PAGE
HOME | RESEARCH |
PUBLICATIONS |
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE |
CONFERENCES |
GRANTS |
PARTNERS |
PROJECT PERSONNEL |
PROGRESS REPORTS |
LINKS |
CONTACT US | SEARCH
© 2017, 2016–2004 SAGA
|
|