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SAGA PUBLICATIONS Included here are Working Papers and Conference Papers. Publications on this page are organized by author: RETURN TO MAIN AUTHORS PAGE Carter, Michael R. Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa February 2006 Barrett, Christopher B., Michael R. Carter and Peter D. Little This paper introduces a special issue exploring persistent poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. As a set, these papers break new ground in exploring the dynamics of structural poverty, integrating qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis and adopting an asset-based approach to the study of changes in well-being, especially in response to a wide range of different (climatic, health, political, and other) shocks. In this introductory essay, we frame these studies, building directly on evolving conceptualisations of poverty in Africa. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 167-177, lead article In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: An Asset-Based Approach February 2006 Carter, Michael R. and Christopher B. Barrett Longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty. While a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty, this paper develops an asset-based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep-rooted, persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes. Drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies, this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term, persistent structural poverty. We also propose an extension of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class of poverty measures to provide a natural measure of long-term welfare status. The paper closes with reflections on how asset-based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):178-199, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Exploring Poverty Traps and Social Exclusion in South Africa Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data February 2006 Adato, Michelle, Michael R. Carter, and Julian May Recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like South Africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty. To explore these ideas, this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. Novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993-98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of South Africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty. Qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998-2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility, and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low-level poverty trap. In addition, the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships. While finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks, these are more helpful for non-poor households. For the poor, social capital at best helps stabilise livelihoods at low levels and does little to promote upward mobility. While there is thus some economic sense to sociability in South Africa, elimination of the polarised economic legacy of apartheid will ultimately require more proactive efforts to assure that households have access to a minimum bundle of assets and to the markets needed to effectively build on those assets over time. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):226-247, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Risk and Asset Management in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Implications for Growth and Social Protection June 2005 Barrett, Christopher B. and Michael R. Carter This note suggests a behavioral approach to poverty and vulnerability that escapes the standard, troublesome dependence on an arbitrary money-metric poverty line. More importantly, our approach, which is based on an empirically estimable dynamic asset poverty threshold, has immediate implications for both the linkage between poverty, risk and growth and for the design of social protection policies. One can identify the dynamic asset poverty threshold either by testing for asset smoothing behavior or via tests for bifurcated/split accumulation dynamics. We illustrate the concept and the estimation of dynamic asset poverty thresholds through brief applications to Ethiopia and Honduras. Casale, Daniela Internal Labour Migration and Household Poverty in Post-Apartheid South Africa October 2005 Posel, Dorrit and Daniela Casale The first objective of this chapter is to briefly describe and discuss trends in labour migration over the period 1993 to 2002 using these household survey data. We show that a growing number of rural African households report labour migrants as (non-resident) household members and we discuss possible reasons why individuals may continue to migrate temporarily to places of employment. Our second objective is to explore the economic status of those who remain behind in the household of origin. We find that total household income on average is significantly and consistently lower in migrant, than in non-migrant, households. Remittance transfers are a more important source of income than the earnings of employed resident members in migrant households. Since 1993, however, both the receipt and the average real value of remittance income have fallen. We conclude our study with a discussion of factors that may account for this trend and the possible development implications of migration for rural African households. In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006. "Two million net new jobs": A reconsideration of the rise in employment in South Africa, 1995-2003 April 2004 Daniela Casale, Colette Muller and Dorrit Posel In this paper we investigate labour market trends in South Africa between October 1995 and March 2003. In particular, we evaluate the South African government’s claim that over this period, the economy created two million net new jobs. Using the same household survey data as that used to generate official employment estimates, we also find an almost two million net increase in employment. However, we show that this increase is likely to have been inflated by changes in data capture and definitions of employment over the years, and that the real increase may be considerably less, with a lower bound of approximately 1.4 million jobs. We argue further that the rise in employment over the period must be evaluated in the context of a dramatically larger growth in labour supply and therefore rising rates of unemployment, declining real earnings, and an increase in the number of the working poor, particularly among Africans. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Cassim, Rashad South African Trade Reform since Democracy October 2004 Rashad Cassim and Dirk van Seventer As part of a wider investigation by the National Institute for Economic Policy, covering a range of economic policy issues, the main aim of this paper is to provide an overview of how trade policy has evolved since democracy. We use standard quantities measures of trade policy analysis as an input into a discussion of the impact of the trade regime on the economy. The paper also undertakes some sensitivity analysis about how we think about some basic welfare concepts. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Castro, Peter ‘Moving in Place’: Drought and Poverty Dynamics in South Wollo, Ethiopia February 2006 Little, Peter D., Priscilla Stone, Tewodaj Mogues, Peter Castro, and Workneh Negatu This article discusses the impact of drought on poverty dynamics in the South Wollo area of northeastern Ethiopia. Using both survey and anthropological/qualitative data covering a six-year period, the paper assesses which households were able to hold on to assets and recover from the 1999-2000 drought and which were not. It suggests that while the incidence of poverty changed very little during 1997 to 2003 despite the occurrence of a major drought, the fortunes of the poorest improved, but not enough to keep them from poverty. The study concludes by asking how current policies affect patterns of poverty and inequality and what might be done to improve welfare in South Wollo. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):200-225, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Cavalcanti, Carlos B. Ghana: Recent Trends in Growth and Poverty Reduction July 2005 Carlos B. Cavalcanti The received wisdom about poverty and growth in Ghana is that poverty is mostly rural and that its economic structure has changed little since independence. As a result, the country’s poverty reduction record has been mixed, with growth benefiting primarily urban and export producing regions, leaving behind deep poverty in regions of subsistence agriculture, especially in Northern Ghana. Recent evidenced indicates, however, that poverty continuous declining, especially in rural areas, with slight increases in urban areas, albeit from much lower levels. This development reflects the fact that the structure of employment in the Ghanaian economy has changed quite significantly, with a shift away from agriculture and toward urban activities linked to trade and other services, as well as to manufacturing and construction. These labor market transitions are even more pronounced among younger workers, reflecting rapid urbanization and rising rates of educational attainment. While this virtuous cycle of urbanization has lead to progress in poverty reduction, sustaining the progress achieved so far will depend on maintaining the current economic expansion and raising the rate of job creation. The economic expansion of the last three years has been driven by the exceptional combination of record cocoa crops and historically high world market prices for cocoa and gold. Export growth, combined with rising workers remittances from abroad and continuous aid flows, have allowed the urban economy to expand and workers to move from rural to urban areas. This transition is still unfinished, however, as most of the new jobs are being created in the informal sector, meaning lower wages, greater job insecurity and lower productivity. Lower productivity, in turn, means less scope for raising real wages, and is a reminder that removing obstacles for the growth of private sector firms is essential for the sustainability of poverty reduction and the economic expansion. The rest of this paper elaborates on these points. It begins with a quick overview of changes in Ghana’s poverty profile. It considers next the transitions in the labor market, and how these reflect broader changes in the economy. It proceeds then to investigate the factors driving or hindering these labor market transitions. The last section concludes with a summary of the main findings. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Chaponda, Taz Budget Reform as a Means to Strengthen the Link Between Macro and Micro Policies October 2004 Taz Chaponda, Neil Cole, Mickie Schoch, and Chris Gadsden The paper argues that a credible budget provides the link between broad macroeconomic policies and strategies and microeconomic policies facilitating the achievement of development and poverty reduction targets. The paper’s thesis centres around the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) which has been lauded as the method to translate broad macroeconomic aggregates into effective public expenditure programmes based on a multi-year fiscal framework. While a number of countries in Africa – most notably South Africa and Uganda – have seen significant benefits, such as increased predictability in resource flows and better planning for microeconomic policies, experiences in other African countries have been mixed. The paper argues that developing credible budgets does not require an ambitious MTEF reform path. What is more important is a commitment to realistic macroeconomic projections, sensible budgeting norms, good accounting practices and regular reporting through transparent budget documents. Paper prepared for the conference “African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage” Cape Town, South Africa October 2004 Chapoto, Antony HIV/AIDS and Rural Livelihoods in Zambia: A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis May 2007 Mason, Nicole M., Antony Chapoto, Thomas S. Jayne and Robert J. Myers The ‘new variant famine’ (NVF) hypothesis postulates that the HIV/AIDS pandemic is eroding rural livelihoods and making rural households more vulnerable to drought and other transitory shocks. Despite limited empirical evidence, the NVF hypothesis has become an important part of the conventional wisdom surrounding the relationship between HIV/AIDS and food crises in southern Africa. This study provides a new empirical test of the NVF hypothesis via econometric estimation of the relationship between AIDS-related morbidity and mortality and indicators of rural livelihoods. District longitudinal data from smallholder farmers in Zambia surveyed annually between 1991 and 2003 are used to estimate several econometric models in order to: (1) understand the effects of HIV/AIDS on rural farm production; (2) measure whether HIV/AIDS exacerbates the impacts of drought and other factors affecting rural farm production; and (3) determine whether these results are consistent with the predictions of the NVF hypothesis. We find little evidence of a systematic decline in rural livelihoods at the national or provincial level as measured by mean household agricultural production, area cultivated, or the value of production per unit of land. Furthermore, contrary to a priori expectations, we do not find evidence of a robust negative direct effect of HIV/AIDS on any of these three agricultural production outcomes. We do find some evidence that HIV/AIDS may have negative indirect effects on rural farm production by exacerbating the impacts of drought, gender inequalities and agricultural sector policy changes related to structural adjustment. This final finding is consistent with the predictions of the NVF hypothesis. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Cheng’ole, Josephat Social Aspects of Dynamic Poverty Traps: Cases from, Vihiga, Baringo and Marsabit Districts, Kenya March 2004 Nelson Mango, Josephat Cheng’ole, Gatarwa Kariuki and Wesley Ongadi This paper draws on qualitative research on Social Aspects of Dynamic Poverty Traps conducted in Vihiga, Baringo and Marsabit districts, Kenya. Using qualitative research techniques such as case study approach and community workshops, the paper explores the strategies that have been used by certain households to move out of poverty in the past ten to twenty years and reasons for descent into poverty by some households in the same period. Findings from this study indicate that poverty is not only an outcome of economic processes, but also an outcome of political, environmental and social processes that interact with each other and frequently reinforce each other in ways that exacerbates the deprivation of the environmental situation in which people live. The case studies presented in this report give people’s description of what living in poverty means and bears eloquent testimony to their pain. While it is tempting to think that for those who live in poverty escaping from it may seem impossible, findings from this study show that it is not. The case study materials presented in this paper indicate that poor people are not passive to their predicament but have time testesd coping and survival strategies and institutions that can even enable some of them to escape from poverty. Such strategies and institutions can be integrated into innovative poverty reduction programs because they present enormous potential for bottom-up approaches to poverty alleviation. Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya Chukwuone, Nnaemeka A. Child Schooling in Nigeria: The Role of Gender in Urban, Rural, North and South Nigeria November 2005 Okpukpara, Benjamin Chiedozie and Nnaemeka A. Chukwuone This research was conceived as a result of increasing drop out of children from school as well as high incidence of children combining schooling with some economic activities in Nigeria. Though many researches have been conducted in areas of school enrolment of the children in Nigeria, little or none of these researchers has bordered much on the role of child, parent, household and community characteristics on child schooling. Previous works centre mainly on explorative studies rather than econometric causes of the observed trends in school enrollment. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005 Coast, E. Maasai Pastoralists: Diversification and Poverty June 2006 Homewood, K., E. Coast, S. Kiruswa, S. Serneels, M. Thompson, and P. Trench Sub-Saharan African pastoralism involves highly fluid production systems responding flexibly to variable and unpredictable arid and semi arid rangeland environments. Household wealth is typically subject to stochastic events and most pastoralist groups have a history of entire families shifting in and out of the system as their fortunes have changed. This potential to re-enter the system has been maintained by the often communal nature of land tenure in pastoral societies, alongside the potential to restock through raiding, trading (including wild resources), or cultivation. However, the last hundred years have seen a drastic decline in the commons available for extensive pastoralism. Large areas of land have been given over to alternative uses as pastoral populations have become marginalized within most African nation states. Extensive land loss to conservation and rapid piecemeal privatisation of formerly communal rangelands for agriculture and ranching enterprises are framed within an environmental discourse that invokes Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons to justify land alienation and subdivision. This process has entailed the loss of access to key dry season land and water resources. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Cole, Neil Budget Reform as a Means to Strengthen the Link Between Macro and Micro Policies October 2004 Taz Chaponda, Neil Cole, Mickie Schoch, and Chris Gadsden The paper argues that a credible budget provides the link between broad macroeconomic policies and strategies and microeconomic policies facilitating the achievement of development and poverty reduction targets. The paper’s thesis centres around the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) which has been lauded as the method to translate broad macroeconomic aggregates into effective public expenditure programmes based on a multi-year fiscal framework. While a number of countries in Africa – most notably South Africa and Uganda – have seen significant benefits, such as increased predictability in resource flows and better planning for microeconomic policies, experiences in other African countries have been mixed. The paper argues that developing credible budgets does not require an ambitious MTEF reform path. What is more important is a commitment to realistic macroeconomic projections, sensible budgeting norms, good accounting practices and regular reporting through transparent budget documents. Paper prepared for the conference “African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage” Cape Town, South Africa October 2004 Coppock, D. Layne Women’s Groups in Arid Northern Kenya: Origins, Governance, and Roles in Poverty Reduction June 2006 Coppock, D. Layne, Solomon Desta, Adan Wako, Ibrahim Aden, Getachew Gebru, Seyoum Tezera, and Chachu Tadecha Collective action can be effective means of local development and risk reduction among rural people, but few examples have been documented in pastoral rangeland areas. We conducted extensive qualitative interviews for 16 women’s groups residing in settlements in northern Kenya during early 2005. Our objectives were to understand how groups were formed and governed and what activities they have pursued. Other questions included to what extent such groups can mitigate drought crises and reduce poverty for their members, and what most threatens group sustainability. At the time of interviews, our groups had existed for an average of 10 years, with two being 18-19 years old. Charter memberships averaged about 24 women, 20 of whom were typically illiterate. Half of the groups had been formed after facilitation by a GO or NGO partner and half formed spontaneously. Groups are governed under detailed constitutional frameworks outlining rights and responsibilities of members. All groups have eventually been registered with the Kenya government. Chairladies of the groups are typically elected to two-year terms. Group applicants and candidates for office are carefully screened. Groups primarily form to improve living standards of the members. Groups undertake a wide variety of social and economic activities founded on savings and credit schemes, income diversification, small business development, and expansion of education, health service, and natural resource management functions. The livestock and non-livestock economies become intermixed—commercialized livestock activities provide capital for small business ventures as well as the reverse. Groups have taken an active role in mitigating drought impacts on their members and the scope of drought mitigation appears to expand as groups mature over time. Interview respondents gave many examples of group members that have lifted themselves up from destitution. Relatively few of the groups we interviewed have experienced abject failure, but many have struggled. The greatest threats to the sustainability of these women’s groups come from external factors such as drought, resource scarcity, poverty, and political incitement as well as internal factors such as unfavorable group dynamics and illiteracy. Principles of good group governance and wisdom in business creation and management were repeatedly stated by respondents as the key ingredients for long-term success; making linkages to external development partners is also vital to secure access to technology and small grants. Groups have ambitious plans to further improve their social and economic circumstances; evidence is shown that rates of group formation in the region appear to be increasing. In a highly risky and poverty-stricken environment such as northern Kenya, such groups help create relatively deep pools of social, human, and diversified economic capital. Many of these processes fill large gaps in public service delivery and should be encouraged by policy makers. At the micro-level groups and their GO and NGO facilitators need continued support to strengthen groups. At a macro-level, investments that lead to broader economic development and greater access to formal education in the rangelands may permit further proliferation of sustainable efforts towards collective action. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Coulombe, Harold Ghana Census-Based Poverty Map: District and Sub-District level Results May 2005 Coulombe, Harold This paper documents the construction and presents the main results of a Ghanaian poverty map based on the GLSS4 survey and the Census 2000. The methodology takes advantages of detailed information found in the survey and the exhaustive coverage of the census. It permits the calculation of poverty indicators at a very low level of desegregation; sub-district in the case of Ghana. In the current paper district level poverty figures are presented. Council level estimates are also available. In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana Selective Poverty Reduction in a Slow Growth Environment: Ghana in the 1990s September 2003 Harold Coulombe and Andy McKay Ghana is regarded as having achieved a relatively good record of poverty reduction in the first years of its Economic Recovery Programme initiated in 1983. This paper addresses the record of poverty reduction over the 1990s, when Ghana’s macroeconomic performance was somewhat weaker. The analysis is based on comparable household surveys conducted at the beginning and end of the decade. At the national level the incidence of monetary poverty fell overall, and the evidence for this seems to be quite robust, consistent with other survey based evidence and with macroeconomic trends over the period. Most non-monetary indicators of poverty that are available from the survey also show improvements over the period, except for use of health care facilities which has deteriorated substantially over this period. However, a more detailed analysis presented in this paper, shows that there are strong patterns to this reduction in monetary poverty. Poverty reduction has been concentrated in specific localities (Accra and the rural forest region) and within particular activities (notably export oriented sectors and commerce). Households in other localities and working in other activities have experienced little poverty reduction, with some evidence of increasing depth or severity of poverty in some locations (especially in the northern savannah). Again these patterns of change are consistent with the sectoral pattern of growth over this period. The reduced use of health care facilities is consistent with reduced government spending in this area combined with the introduction of user charges. The survey data used in this paper also help provide a clear explanation for these observed trends, which typically differs from one region to another. Poverty reduction in Accra is strongly associated with a large increase in the numbers engaged in self-employment, primarily trading activities, combined with increased incomes from these activities. In the rural forest increased prices and production of cocoa play an important point in driving poverty reduction there, but food farmers also experience quite large poverty reductions (in contrast to other regions of Ghana). Poverty reduction among the food farmers there is primarily due to a substantially increased inflow of remittances much from outside the region (raising questions about its sustainability). This experience of remittances leading to poverty reduction among food farmers, the poorest group, is much less evident elsewhere in Ghana. Despite the reduction in the overall poverty figures, this paper highlights the limited benefits accruing to many of the poorest groups in Ghana over the 1990s and the increased differential between localities that emerged over this period. This is clearly not only a consequence of poor macroeconomic performance over the period, but also raises questions about the overall policy stance over this period and the extent to which it focused on poor, more remote regions and on non-export agriculture. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana Return to MAIN AUTHORS PAGE

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