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Mahmoud, Toman Omar

Boda Bodas Rule: Non-agricultural Activities and Their Inequality Implications in Western Kenya
March 2007
Lay, Jann, George Michuki M’Mukaria and Toman Omar Mahmoud
Engagement in non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be classified into survival-led or opportunity-led. Survival-led diversification would decrease inequality by increasing the incomes of poorer households and thus reduce poverty. By contrast, opportunity-led diversification would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from Western Kenya, we confirm the existence of the differently motivated diversification strategies. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications differ somewhat from our expectations. Our findings indicate that in addition to asset constraints, rural households also face limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture.
Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya

Mango, Nelson

Social Aspects of Dynamic Poverty Traps: Cases from, Vihiga, Baringo and Marsabit Districts, Kenya
March 2004
Nelson Mango, Josephat Cheng’ole, Gatarwa Kariuki and Wesley Ongadi
This paper draws on qualitative research on Social Aspects of Dynamic Poverty Traps conducted in Vihiga, Baringo and Marsabit districts, Kenya. Using qualitative research techniques such as case study approach and community workshops, the paper explores the strategies that have been used by certain households to move out of poverty in the past ten to twenty years and reasons for descent into poverty by some households in the same period. Findings from this study indicate that poverty is not only an outcome of economic processes, but also an outcome of political, environmental and social processes that interact with each other and frequently reinforce each other in ways that exacerbates the deprivation of the environmental situation in which people live. The case studies presented in this report give people’s description of what living in poverty means and bears eloquent testimony to their pain. While it is tempting to think that for those who live in poverty escaping from it may seem impossible, findings from this study show that it is not. The case study materials presented in this paper indicate that poor people are not passive to their predicament but have time testesd coping and survival strategies and institutions that can even enable some of them to escape from poverty. Such strategies and institutions can be integrated into innovative poverty reduction programs because they present enormous potential for bottom-up approaches to poverty alleviation.
Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya

Mara, Mamadou

Les écoles communautaires de base au Sénégal: Contribution à la scolarisation universelle, l’éradication de la pauvreté, et la mise en place d’un programme national pour le développement durable
April 2005
Assié-Lumumba, N’Dri, Mamadou Mara, and Marieme Lo

Marenya, Paswel Phiri

Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar
February 2006
Barrett, Christopher B., Paswel Phiri Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo and Justine Wangila
This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household’s asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households' defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 248-277, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.

Indices and Manifestations of Poverty: Informing Anti-Poverty Policy Choices
March 2004
Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Paswel P. Marenya, Frank Place and Christopher B. Barrett
Kenya has entered the 21st century with over 50% of its population classified as absolutely poor in that they live on less than a dollar a day. Per capita income is lower than at the end of the 1960’s. Income, assets, and access to essential services are unequally distributed. The country has made important economic reforms, improving macroeconomic management, liberalizing markets and trade, and widening the scope for private sector activity in the hope of improving economic growth and welfare for Kenyans. Yet, despite these reforms the country has experienced little growth and poverty continues to afflict an ever-larger segment of its citizenry, especially in rural areas.
Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya

Markiewicz, Milissa

Escaping Poverty and Becoming Poor in 36 Villages of Central and Western Uganda
February 2006
Krishna, Anirudh, Daniel Lumonya, Milissa Markiewicz, Firminus Mugumya, Agatha Kafuko, Jonah Wegoye
Twenty-four per cent of households in 36 village communities of Central and Western Uganda have escaped from poverty over the past 25 years, but another 15 per cent have simultaneously fallen into poverty. A roughly equal number of households escaped from poverty in the first period (ten to 25 years ago) as in the second period (the last ten years) examined here. However, almost twice as many households fell into poverty during the second period as in the first period. Progress in poverty reduction has slowed down as a result. Multiple causes are associated with descent into poverty and these causes vary significantly between villages in the two different regions. For nearly two-thirds of all households in both regions, however, ill health and health-related costs were a principal reason for descent into poverty. Escaping poverty is also associated with diverse causes, which vary across the two regions. Compared to increases in urban employment, however, land-related reasons have been more important for escaping poverty in both regions.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 346-370, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.

Mason, Nicole M.

HIV/AIDS and Rural Livelihoods in Zambia: A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis
May 2007
Mason, Nicole M., Antony Chapoto, Thomas S. Jayne and Robert J. Myers
The ‘new variant famine’ (NVF) hypothesis postulates that the HIV/AIDS pandemic is eroding rural livelihoods and making rural households more vulnerable to drought and other transitory shocks. Despite limited empirical evidence, the NVF hypothesis has become an important part of the conventional wisdom surrounding the relationship between HIV/AIDS and food crises in southern Africa. This study provides a new empirical test of the NVF hypothesis via econometric estimation of the relationship between AIDS-related morbidity and mortality and indicators of rural livelihoods. District longitudinal data from smallholder farmers in Zambia surveyed annually between 1991 and 2003 are used to estimate several econometric models in order to: (1) understand the effects of HIV/AIDS on rural farm production; (2) measure whether HIV/AIDS exacerbates the impacts of drought and other factors affecting rural farm production; and (3) determine whether these results are consistent with the predictions of the NVF hypothesis. We find little evidence of a systematic decline in rural livelihoods at the national or provincial level as measured by mean household agricultural production, area cultivated, or the value of production per unit of land. Furthermore, contrary to a priori expectations, we do not find evidence of a robust negative direct effect of HIV/AIDS on any of these three agricultural production outcomes. We do find some evidence that HIV/AIDS may have negative indirect effects on rural farm production by exacerbating the impacts of drought, gender inequalities and agricultural sector policy changes related to structural adjustment. This final finding is consistent with the predictions of the NVF hypothesis.
Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya

Mathias, Kuepie

La dimension économique de l’efficacité externe de l’éducation en Afrique de l’Ouest
November 2005
Duret, Elsa, Mathias Kuepie, Christophe Nordman, and François Roubaud
Les analyses ciblant l’efficacité externe1 des systèmes éducatifs s’intéressent à l’influence de l’éducation reçue par les individus après qu’ils sont sortis des écoles et établissements de formation pour mener à bien leur vie d’adulte au sein de la société. Ces effets sont de deux ordres, économiques dans un sens étroit, sociaux dans une conception plus large, et peuvent être lus à travers deux dimensions complémentaires : individuelle d’une part, collective d’autre part. Le croisement de ces deux perspectives offre un tableau synthétique des différentes analyses qui peuvent être conduites dans ce domaine...
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005

Mathisen, Johan

Banking Competition and Efficiency in Ghana
October 2004
Thierry Buchs and Johan Mathisen
This paper assesses the degree of bank competition and discusses efficiency with regard to banks’ financial intermediation in Ghana. By applying panel data to variables derived from a theoretical model, we find evidence for a noncompetitive market structure in the Ghanaian banking system, which may be hampering financial intermediation. We argue that the structure, as well as the other market characteristics, constitutes an indirect barrier to entry shielding the large profits in the Ghanaian banking system.
In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Maurice, Ngoube

Access to Schooling and Employment in Cameroon: New Inequalities and Opportunities
April 2004
Eloundou-Enyegue, Parfait M., Ngoube Maurice, Okene Richard, V.P Onguene,Serge Bahoken, Joseph Tamukong, Moses Mbangwana, Joseph Essindi Evina, and Caroline Mongue Djongoue
This report is about recent trends in education and access to employment in Cameroon. It focuses on five questions about (1) current levels of schooling, (2) recent trends in enrolment, (3) recent trends in schooling inequalities, (4) access to employment, and (5) risks and opportunities to improve education and employment outcomes. Based on these analyses, the report discusses several challenges and opportunities in improving education and employment outcomes.

May, Julian

Exploring Poverty Traps and Social Exclusion in South Africa Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data
February 2006
Adato, Michelle, Michael R. Carter, and Julian May
Recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like South Africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty. To explore these ideas, this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. Novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993-98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of South Africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty. Qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998-2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility, and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low-level poverty trap. In addition, the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships. While finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks, these are more helpful for non-poor households. For the poor, social capital at best helps stabilise livelihoods at low levels and does little to promote upward mobility. While there is thus some economic sense to sociability in South Africa, elimination of the polarised economic legacy of apartheid will ultimately require more proactive efforts to assure that households have access to a minimum bundle of assets and to the markets needed to effectively build on those assets over time.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):226-247, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.

Poverty, Asset Accumulation and Shocks in South Africa: Evidence from KwaZulu-Natal
October 2005
May, Julian
Although their use has become widespread, approaches to poverty measurement such as the FGT class of measures discussed by Woolard and Leibbrandt et al (2000:60-67) for South Africa are necessarily static in nature. Such measurement regards poverty is a deficiency, measured in terms of the proportion of the population who are categorised as poor, or perhaps more usefully, in terms of the distance that separates those that are poor from the least well-off of the non-poor: the individual or household whose income is exactly equal to the poverty line. From the perspective of policy, poverty becomes a circumstance to be resolved by appropriately targeted transfers rather than the outcome of social and economic structures: a poverty that is ‘produced’ or in the language of some analysts, a poverty that is ‘perpetrated’ (Øyen, 2002). Beyond the identification of possible target groups and some of the ways in which poverty is experienced, those factors which lead to the production, reproduction and persistence of poverty are concealed. As a result, little can be offered in the way of concrete issues for strategy in a country such as South Africa where the legacy of past policies continues to burden efforts to reduce poverty. While a comparatively new literature on poverty transitions offers some solutions to this shortcoming through its focus on chronic versus transitory poverty, such analysis still does not identify those who are structurally mobile from those who may be in poverty trap. However, merging elements of Sen’s entitlement approach with the economic theory of the household in imperfect market environments, Carter and May (2001) present non-parametric estimates of the mapping between household assets and poverty. This paper builds on their analysis of to identify an alternative categorisation of poverty using panel data collected in 1993 and again in 1998 in KwaZulu-Natal. The paper goes further to describe the shocks that result in persistent poverty and the characteristics of those in different dynamic poverty categories in terms of the assets that might eventually lead to their mobility. This draws out some important themes for poverty reduction including redistributive strategies and microeconomic reform.
In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.

An Improved Data set for Demographic Research: The KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Survey (KIDS) 3rd Wave
October 2004
Julian May
“Qualitative research such as the South African Participatory Poverty Appraisal has shown the extent to which change matters for those who are poor (May and Norton, 1997). Concern about future vulnerability and shocks, expectations that some event might dramatically transform their lives such as births, deaths and entry into the labour market, and anticipation of obtaining entitlements such as government grants are frequently described as being either features of poverty or as strategies that might offer pathways out of poverty. Each of these events is integrally caught up with the demographic and socio-economic life-cycle that individuals and families undergo as time passes (Chayanov, 1966). In South Africa, the analysis of such change has relied upon cross-sectional studies or upon census data. Although useful, these data are unable to address a variety of questions, particularly those concerning dynamic processes and causal linkages. To address this gap, the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study (KIDS) was undertaken by a consortium of South African and international researchers in 1998 which re- interviewed 1100 households first surveyed in 1993 as a part of the national Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development (PSLDS). KIDS has just been extended by a further 5 years with a resurvey conducted in 2004....
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Mbangwana, Moses

McCord, Anna

The economy-wide impacts of the labour intensification of infrastructure expenditure
October 2004
Anna McCord and Dirk van Seventer
This paper examines the performance of public works in addressing both micro and macroeconomic policy objectives relating to growth, employment and poverty reduction in South Africa. Survey data on the micro-economic impact of public works programme participation is used alongside a social accounting matrix (SAM) for the South African economy which models the impact of a demand stimulus to the South African economy reflecting a hypothetical annual public works programme of R3 billion, using data from a labour based road rehabilitation programme. Drawing on recent survey data from two public works programmes in South Africa, the microeconomic impacts of public works programme participation in terms of income poverty, non income poverty and labour market performance are reviewed. These microeconomic findings are then linked to recent research examining the macro-economic impacts of public works programmes and the two are considered together in order to assess the micro-macro linkage of public works programmes and theircontribution to development and poverty reduction. This analysis is particularly relevant given the popularity of public works as an instrument for labour market and social protection intervention throughout the continent. The microeconomic analysis suggests that while participation in a public works programme may contribute to a reduction in the depth of poverty, with improvements in participation in education and nutrition, and have positive psychosocial benefits, the impact of a short term programme may not be significant in terms of a reduction in headcount poverty or improvements in asset ownership (material or financial). In this case the public works programme income may function essentially as a temporary wage shock, since the insurance function of the transfer is limited by the short duration of the employment period. If targeted to poorer groups, with lower levels of school participation and poorer nutrition, impact may be greater per unit of wage transferred, interms of contributing to human capital, but is still not likely to move participants out of poverty, but rather reduce the depth of their poverty.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

McHugh, Oloro V.

Better Technology, Better Plots or Better Farmers? Identifying Changes In Productivity And Risk Among Malagasy Rice Farmers
November 2004
Barrett, Christopher B., Christine M. Moser, Oloro V. McHugh, and Joeli Barison
We introduce a method for properly attributing observed productivity and risk changes among new production methods, farmers, and plots by controlling for farmer and plot heterogeneity. Results from Madagascar show that the new system of rice intensification (SRI) is indeed a superior technology. Although about half of the observed productivity gains appear due to farmer characteristics rather than SRI itself, the technology generates the estimated average output gains of more than 84%. The increased estimated yield risk associated with SRI would nonetheless make it unattractive to many farmers within the standard range of relative risk aversion.
In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(4):869-888 (November).

McKay, Andrew

Operationalizing Pro-Poor Growth: A Country Case Study of Ghana
October 2004
Andrew McKay and Ernest Aryeetey
This paper is prepared as part of the multi-donor Operationalising Pro-Poor Growth study, which is focusing on aiming to provide advice to governments on how to facilitate the involvement of poor people in the growth process. It is prepared as one of 14 case studies prepared as part of this project, and following a common outline structure and analytic approach. The case study papers are prepared to assess country-level evidence on the relationships between growth performance and trends in poverty, and on how this can be enhanced. This implies therefore an analysis which combines macro and sectoral analysis of the determinants of growth and its distributional pattern, with more micro-level poverty analysis. While much of the analysis investigating the links between pat-terns of growth and changes in poverty is historical, assessing past evidence, there is also an important forward looking component on how poverty-reducing growth can be initiated, sustained or enhanced….
Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana

Selective Poverty Reduction in a Slow Growth Environment: Ghana in the 1990s
September 2003
Harold Coulombe and Andy McKay
Ghana is regarded as having achieved a relatively good record of poverty reduction in the first years of its Economic Recovery Programme initiated in 1983. This paper addresses the record of poverty reduction over the 1990s, when Ghana’s macroeconomic performance was somewhat weaker. The analysis is based on comparable household surveys conducted at the beginning and end of the decade. At the national level the incidence of monetary poverty fell overall, and the evidence for this seems to be quite robust, consistent with other survey based evidence and with macroeconomic trends over the period. Most non-monetary indicators of poverty that are available from the survey also show improvements over the period, except for use of health care facilities which has deteriorated substantially over this period. However, a more detailed analysis presented in this paper, shows that there are strong patterns to this reduction in monetary poverty. Poverty reduction has been concentrated in specific localities (Accra and the rural forest region) and within particular activities (notably export oriented sectors and commerce). Households in other localities and working in other activities have experienced little poverty reduction, with some evidence of increasing depth or severity of poverty in some locations (especially in the northern savannah). Again these patterns of change are consistent with the sectoral pattern of growth over this period. The reduced use of health care facilities is consistent with reduced government spending in this area combined with the introduction of user charges. The survey data used in this paper also help provide a clear explanation for these observed trends, which typically differs from one region to another. Poverty reduction in Accra is strongly associated with a large increase in the numbers engaged in self-employment, primarily trading activities, combined with increased incomes from these activities. In the rural forest increased prices and production of cocoa play an important point in driving poverty reduction there, but food farmers also experience quite large poverty reductions (in contrast to other regions of Ghana). Poverty reduction among the food farmers there is primarily due to a substantially increased inflow of remittances much from outside the region (raising questions about its sustainability). This experience of remittances leading to poverty reduction among food farmers, the poorest group, is much less evident elsewhere in Ghana. Despite the reduction in the overall poverty figures, this paper highlights the limited benefits accruing to many of the poorest groups in Ghana over the 1990s and the increased differential between localities that emerged over this period. This is clearly not only a consequence of poor macroeconomic performance over the period, but also raises questions about the overall policy stance over this period and the extent to which it focused on poor, more remote regions and on non-export agriculture.
Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana

Does Inflation in Ghana Hit the Poor Harder?
April 2005
Andy McKay and Nii K. Sowa
One of the defining characteristics of the Ghanaian macroeconomy over the past 40 years has been its high, and often variable, rates of inflation. Inflation was particularly high and variable in the politically turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, but has persisted throughout the gradual economic recovery since 1983. Though inflation has been lower and less variable in the latter period, it still remains high in absolute terms and by comparison with many other countries...This paper focuses on the question of whether the inflation rate for the basket of purchases of the poor is higher than for the population as a whole.
In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008.
Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana

McPeak, John G.

Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid North
August 2009
Mude, Andrew, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. McPeak, Robert Kaitho and Patti Kristjansen
Mitigating the negative welfare consequences of crises such as droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks, is a major challenge in many areas of the world, especially in highly vulnerable areas insufficiently equipped to prevent food and livelihood security crisis in the face of adverse shocks. Given the finite resources allocated for emergency response, and the expected increase in incidences of humanitarian catastrophe due to changing climate patterns, there is a need for rigorous and efficient methods of early warning and emergency needs assessment. In this paper we develop an empirical model, based on a relatively parsimonious set of regularly measured variables from communities in Kenya’s arid north, that generates remarkably accurate forecasts of the likelihood of famine with at least three months lead time. Such a forecasting model is a potentially valuable tool for enhancing early warning capacity.
Presented at Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006
In Food Policy 34(4): 329-339, August, 2009

Understanding Declining Mobility and Inter-household Transfers among East African Pastoralists
April 2009
Huysentruyt, Marieke, Christoper B. Barrett, and John G. McPeak
We model inter-household transfers between nomadic livestock herders as the state-dependent consequence of individuals’ strategic interdependence, resulting from the existence of multiple, opposing externalities—more specifically, a public-good security externality among individuals sharing a social (e.g. ethnic) identity in a potentially hostile environment, and a resource appropriation externality related to the use of common property grazing lands. Our model augments the extant literature on transfers, and is more consistent with the limited available empirical evidence on heterogeneous and changing transfers’ patterns among east African pastoralists. The core principles of our model possibly apply more broadly, for example to long-distance migrants or even ‘foot soldiers’in street gangs.
In Economica 76(302): 315-336, April, 2009

Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa
August 2008
Doss, Cheryl, John McPeak, and Barrett, Christopher B.
This study investigates variation over time, space and household and individual characteristics in how people perceive different risks. Using original data from the arid and semi-arid lands of east Africa, we explore which risks concern individuals and how they assess their relative level of concern about these identified risks. Because these assessments were gathered for multiple time periods, sites, households and individuals within households, we are able to identify the degree to which risk perceptions vary across time, across communities, across households within a community, and across individuals within a household. We find the primary determinants of risk rankings to be changing community level variables over time, with household specific and individual specific variables exhibiting much less influence. This suggests that community based planning and monitoring of development efforts that address risk exposure should be prioritized. We also find that individuals throughout this area are most concerned about food security overall, so that development efforts that directly address this problem should be given the highest priority.
In World Development 36(8): 1453-68 2008

Challenging Orthodoxies: Understanding Poverty in Pastoral Areas of East Africa
July 2008
Little, Peter D., John McPeak, Christopher B. Barrett and Patti Kristjanson
Understanding and alleviating poverty in Africa continues to receive considerable attention by a range of diverse actors, including politicians, international celebrities, academics, activists, and practitioners. Despite the onslaught of interest, there surprisingly is little agreement on what constitutes poverty in rural Africa, how it should be assessed, and what should be done to alleviate it. Based on data from an interdisciplinary study of pastoralism in northern Kenya, this article examines issues of poverty among one of the continent’s most vulnerable groups, pastoralists, and challenges the application of such orthodox proxies as incomes/expenditures, geographic remoteness, and market integration. It argues that current poverty debates ’homogenize‚ the concept of ’pastoralist‚ by failing to acknowledge the diverse livelihoods and wealth differentiation that fall under the term. The article concludes that what is not needed is another development label (stereotype) that equates pastoralism with poverty, thereby empowering outside interests to transform rather than strengthen pastoral livelihoods.
Overview Paper for the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006
In Development and Change 39(4), pp. 587-611, 2008

Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Climate Forecasts
March 2007
Lybbert, Travis J., Christoper Barrett, John G. McPeak, and Winnie K. Luseno
Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations.
In World Development 35(3):480-497

Poverty Traps and Safety Nets
April 2005
Barrett, Christopher B. and John G. McPeak
This paper uses data from northern Kenya to argue that the concept of poverty traps needs to be taken seriously, and that if poverty traps indeed exist, then safety nets become all the more important. However, as presently practiced, safety nets based on food aid appear to be failing in northern Kenya.
In Poverty, Inequality and Development: Essays in Honor of Erik Thorbecke, Alain de Janvry and Ravi Kanbur, eds., Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2005

Meth, Charles

Half Measures: The ANC’s Unemployment and Poverty Reduction Goals
October 2005
Meth, Charles
This paper looks behind the [ANC’s 2004 election] manifesto at policy and other documents in an attempt to discover what the ANC in government understands by these commitments. Finding little evidence of a coherent view there, the paper delves into unemployment and poverty statistics in South Africa in an attempt to see whether or not greater precision than that displayed so far in specifying each of these targets, is possible. In each case, the search for precision opens a window overlooking an impressively wide plain of ignorance. In view of this, the paper ends with some recommendations about what to do about the two commitments.
In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.

Meyerhoefer, Chad

The Relationship between Poverty and Maternal Morbidity and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa
2010
Meyerhoefer, Chad and David E. Sahn
“Good maternal health is of fundamental importance to a country’s well-being and ability to prosper, and there are few times when maternal health is more at risk than in the period surrounding childbirth. Protecting the health of mothers during reproduction safeguards their future contributions to society and ensures the health and productivity of future generations. If either the health of mothers or their newborn offspring is compromised, there will be serious negative consequences for their families, communities, and the entire process of economic and social development. This is why the United Nations has set as one of its eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the reduction of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by two-thirds in the developing world by the year 2015... ”
Presented at the AERC/Hewlett Foundation Workshop, “Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and Reproductive Health Outcomes in Africa” in Brussels, Belgium, November 5-6, 2006
In Reproductive Health, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Africa: Frameworks of Analysis, edited by Olu Ajakaiye and Germano Mwabu. University of Nairobi Press, 2010

Mfaume, Rashid M.

Small Business Entrepreneurship in Dar es salaam -Tanzania: Exploring Problems and Prospects for Future Development
October 2004
Rashid M. Mfaume and Wilhelm Leonard
Small Business Entrepreneurship haves been seen as a hub in generating income for the majority of urban dwellers with no formal paid employment. In Tanzania, entry into small business entrepreneurship is usually not seen as a problem. One can start small business at any time and in any place. However, the development of this informal sector has been profoundly characterized by two parallel phenomena which are perhaps contradictory in character. One is the increasing politicization effort encouraging people to engage in Small and Medium Entrepreneurship (SME). This has led to the proliferation and mushrooming of small business most of which are in the form of petty trading, at least everywhere in the urban centres. The second is the parallel increase in events suggesting prevalence of crime and bureaucratic hurdles which affect SME and counter reaction from the small traders. While the second can be characterized as due to the increasing repressive action by city authority over vendors, the counter reaction behaviour of itinerant and small traders toward city authority is also evident in most urban areas. Generally, the sector is characterized by constant tension and feuds between small traders and urban authorities. Drawing on research findings, the present paper challenges the possibility of reducing poverty in Tanzania using the strategy of developing the small business entrepreneurship under the situation where there is an increasing level of petty crime and bureaucratic hurdles. It is argued and indeed, concluded that if the pres ent intricate and controversial situation surrounding SME and small business is not reversed, if not brought to rest, the development of SME is on slippery slope. The option suggested to tame the conundrum includes, developing discourse portfolio between small traders and bureaucratic authority and authorities formulating policies that can promote development of small business entrepreneurship.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Miatsheni, Cecil

Youth labour markets in Africa
October 2004
Murray Leibbrandt and Cecil Mlatsheni
This paper makes use of a review of the literature on African labour markets, the international literature on youth and the labour market and a fifteen country African data set to analyze the current situation of youth in sub-Saharan labour markets. Economies in Sub-Sahara Africa are generally viewed as having achieved poor economic growth over the past four decades or so (Bigsten 1996, Collier & Gunning 1999, Kaplan 1996). This has had an adverse impact on poverty and inequality. On the whole per capita incomes have fallen since the early 1970s (ADB 1997). Some of the reasons cited in this literature for the poor growth performance of sub-Saharan Africa include: lack of openness to trade, lack of financial depth, deficient public services, lack of social capital, high incidence of shocks and misguided economic policy. The process of economic development involves the allocation of labour within sectors and the reallocation of labour between sectors and to the extent that this process is impeded, the transformation of the economy is slowed and made less efficient (Bigsten and Horton 1997). Thus the functioning of the labour market is central to economic growth, income distribution and poverty alleviation and is thus an important (if not the most important) prong in the various areas that should be considered for policy intervention.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Minten, Bart

Spatial Integration at Multiple Scales: Rice Markets in Madagascar
May 2009
Moser, Christine, Christopher B. Barrett, and Bart Minten
The dramatic increase in the price of rice and other commodities over the past year has generated new interest in how these markets work and how they can be improved. This article uses an exceptionally rich data set to test the extent to which markets in Madagascar are integrated across space at different scales of analysis and to explain some of the factors that limit spatial arbitrage and price equalization within a single country. We use rice price data across four quarters of 2000-2001 along with data on transportation costs and infrastructure availability for nearly 1,400 communes in Madagascar to examine the extent of market integration at three different spatial scales—subregional, regional, and national—and to determine whether non-integration is due to high transfer costs or lack of competition. The results indicate that markets are fairly well integrated at the subregional level and that factors such as high crime rates, remoteness, and lack of information are among the factors limiting competition.
In Agricultural Economics 40(3): 281-294, May, 2009

Agricultural Technology, Productivity, and Poverty in Madagascar
May 2008
Minten, Bart and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper uses a unique, spatially-explicit dataset to study the link between agricultural performance and rural poverty in Madagascar. We show that, controlling for geographical and physical characteristics, communes that have higher rates of adoption of improved agricultural technologies and, consequently, higher crop yields enjoy lower food prices, higher real wages for unskilled workers, and better welfare indicators. The empirical evidence strongly favors support for improved agricultural production as an important part of any strategy to reduce the high poverty and food insecurity rates currently prevalent in rural Madagascar.
In World Development 36(5): 797-822

Productivity in Malagasy Rice Systems: Wealth-differentiated Constraints and Priorities
December 2007
Minten, Bart, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa and Christopher B. Barrett
This study explores the constraints on agricultural productivity and priorities in boosting productivity in rice, the main staple in Madagascar, using a range of different data sets and analytical methods, integrating qualitative assessments by farmers and quantitative evidence from panel data production function analysis and willingness-to-pay estimates for chemical fertilizer. Nationwide, farmers seek primarily labor productivity enhancing interventions, e.g., improved access to agricultural equipment, cattle, and irrigation. Shock mitigation measures, land productivity increasing technologies, and improved land tenure are reported to be much less important. Research and interventions aimed at reducing costs and price volatility within the fertilizer supply chain might help at least the more accessible regions to more readily adopt chemical fertilizer
Invited panel paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Gold Coast, Australia, August 12-18, 2006
In Agricultural Economics 37(s1): 237-248, December, 2007

Rice Price Stabilization in Madagascar: Price and Welfare Implications of Variable Tariffs
November 2005
Dorosh, Paul and Bart Minten
Given the large share of major staples in the budgets of the poor, governments in many developing countries intervene in food markets to limit variation in the prices of staple foods. This paper examines the recent experience of Madagascar in stabilizing prices through international trade and the implications of adjustments in tariff rates. Using a partial equilibrium model, we quantify the overall costs and benefits of a change in import duties for various household groups, and compare this intervention to a policy of targeted food transfers or security stocks.

Supermarkets, International Trade and Farmers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Madagascar
September 2005
Minten, Bart, Lalaina Randrianarison, and Johan F. M. Swinnen
Global retail companies (“supermarkets”) have an increasing influence on developing countries, through foreign investments and/or through the imposition of their private standards. The impact on developing countries and poverty is often assessed as negative. In this paper we show the opposite, based on an analysis of primary data collected to measure the impact of supermarkets on small contract farmers in Madagascar, one of the poorest countries in the world. Almost 10,000 farmers in the Highlands of Madagascar produce vegetables for supermarkets in Europe. In this global supply chain, small farmers’ micro-contracts are combined with extensive farm assistance and supervision programs to fulfill complex quality requirements and phyto-sanitary standards of supermarkets. Small farmers that participate in these contracts have higher welfare, more income stability and shorter lean periods. We also find significant effects on improved technology adoption, better resource management and spillovers on the productivity of the staple crop rice. The small but emerging modern retail sector in Madagascar does not (yet) deliver these benefits as they do not (yet) request the same high standards for their supplies.

Getting the Inputs Right for Improved Agricultural Productivity in Madagascar, Which Inputs Matter and Are the Poor Different?
June 2005
Randrianarisoa, Claude and Bart Minten
We found that while farmers are willing to pay for improved irrigation infrastructure through water use associations, the amounts they are willing to contribute are significantly below the costs – and significantly below international standards – and this especially so for the poorest farmers. For chemical fertilizer, a more rational structuring of the fertilizer supply chain, with clear and consistent market signals, might help at least the more accessible regions to more readily adopt this input.
Paper presented during the workshop “Agricultural and Poverty in Eastern Africa,” June, 2005, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Public Service Provision, User Fees, and Political Turmoil
January 2004
Fafchamps, Marcel and Bart Minten
Following an electoral dispute, the central highlands of the island of Madagascar were subjected to an economic blockade during the first half of 2002. After the blockade ended in June 2002, user fees for health services and school fees were progressively eliminated. This paper examines the provision of schooling and health services to rural areas of Madagascar before, during, and after the blockade. We find that public services were more resilient to the blockade than initially anticipated, but that health services were more affected than schools. The removal of user fees had a large significant effect on public services that is distinct from the end of the blockade and the increase in school book provision.

Water Pricing, the New Water Law, and the Poor: An Estimation of Demand for Improved Water Services in Madagascar
December 2002
Minten, Bart, Rami Razafindralambo, Zaza Randriamiarana, and Bruce Larson

Generalized cost recovery is one of the basic principles of the new Water Law that has recently been adopted by the Malagasy government. However, the effect of this change in policy is still poorly understood. Based on contingent valuation surveys in an urban and a rural area in southern Madagascar, this study analyzes the effect of changes in prices for water services. The results suggest that a minimum size of 90 households in a village is necessary to reach full cost recovery for well construction. Given that this is significantly above the current size of villages in the survey area, full cost recovery seems therefore impossible and subsidies are necessary to increase access to improved water services. Cost recovery for maintenance is relatively easier to achieve. In urban areas, water use practices and willingness to pay for water services depend highly on household income. To better serve the poor, it is therefore suggested that rich households, who rely on private taps, cross-subsidize poor households as a significant number of households is unwilling or unable to pay for water from a public tap. Given that public taps make up a small part of the total consumption of the national water company JIRAMA, lower income from public taps are shown to have only a marginal effect on its total income. However, as experiences in other countries as well as in Madagascar have shown, a fee on public taps is necessary as water for free leads to spoilage, does not give any incentive for the distributor to expand networks, and might therefore be a bad policy for the poor overall.

M’Mukaria, George Michuki

Mochabo, M. O. K.

Conflict Minimizing Strategies on Natural Resource Management and Use: The Case for Managing and Coping with Conflicts between Wildlife and Agropastoral Production Resources in Transmara District, Kenya
June 2006
Nyamwaro, S.O., G.A. Murilla, M.O.K. Mochabo and K.B. Wanjala
It is now well known that a large proportion (up to 90%) of the wildlife population is not contained within the designated areas (the national parks and game reserves) in Kenya. The wildlife thus coexists and interacts with humans and livestock. Research was initiated in Transmara district of Kenya to identify and document factors contributing to competition for and conflicts over management and use of wildlife interactions with agro-pastoral production resources. The research was aimed at finding out: (a) causes leading to competition for and conflicts over multiple land uses, (b) whether the policy on Wildlife Compensation Schemes* is necessary and sufficient, (c) extent of losses incurred and benefits received by local communities due to wildlife interactions, and (d) how the conflicts are managed. Informal and formal socioeconomic surveys were undertaken to collect both secondary and primary information on perceptions of communities about the stated issues. About 97% of the respondents indicated that wildlife is the major cause of conflicts affecting local human communities. Elephants, baboons and leopards were the most destructive and dreadful wild animals. Losses that were incurred by the local communities in the past one year were in the form of human deaths (9%) and injuries (7%), cattle deaths (35%) and injuries (15%), and sheep and goats’ deaths (80%) and injuries (23%). The most affected gender groups were the school-going children (56%) and male adults (21%). Some of the local people (32%) indicated that they used to receive indirect benefits in terms of social amenities that are no longer being received. Most respondents (65%) pointed to a unanimous view that wild animals provided little benefits but destruction to people. Majority of the respondents (72%) appeared to be aware that Wildlife Compensation Schemes were in existence but on the other hand most of them (73%) did not necessarily know why the schemes are there for or how they operated. The most cited solutions to minimize and manage such conflicts were putting up a perimeter fence around Mara National Game Reserve, getting rid of wildlife using every means possible, and increasing and expanding wildlife compensation rates. Respondents also proposed that equitable sharing of earnings from wildlife resources be initiated and implemented in an acceptable and amicable manner. The respondents further suggested that for the new proposals to be actualized they should be incorporated into a reviewed broad-based wildlife policy. This would go a long way in contributing to poverty alleviation for the Maasai pastoralists and agropastolarists.
*Compensation Schemes are Acts of Parliament first enacted in 1976 and amended in 1989 stating the rules, regulations and procedures of getting compensated either in monetary terms or in kind by the government when land owners and their livestock are killed or injured and their properties destroyed.
Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.

Mogues, Tewodaj

‘Moving in Place’: Drought and Poverty Dynamics in South Wollo, Ethiopia
February 2006
Little, Peter D., Priscilla Stone, Tewodaj Mogues, Peter Castro, and Workneh Negatu
This article discusses the impact of drought on poverty dynamics in the South Wollo area of northeastern Ethiopia. Using both survey and anthropological/qualitative data covering a six-year period, the paper assesses which households were able to hold on to assets and recover from the 1999-2000 drought and which were not. It suggests that while the incidence of poverty changed very little during 1997 to 2003 despite the occurrence of a major drought, the fortunes of the poorest improved, but not enough to keep them from poverty. The study concludes by asking how current policies affect patterns of poverty and inequality and what might be done to improve welfare in South Wollo.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):200-225, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.

Mohamed, Seeraj

Capital Flight from South Africa, 1980 to 2000
October 2004
Seeraj Mohamed and Kade Finnoff
Capital flight is a serious problem for South Africa, which if not addressed will continue to impede its ability to deal with structural issues such as high unemployment and concentration of wealth. This paper presents an estimate of the wealth that left South Africa in the form of capital flight during the period 1980 to 2000. We find that from 1980 to 2000 average capital flight as a percentage of GDP was 6.6 percent a year. In this paper, we deviate from the existing literature on capital flight from South Africa by suggesting that the motivation of people involved in capital flight before and after the fall of apartheid may have changed. We find that capital flight as a percentage of GDP was higher after the democratic elections in 1994, even though, there was much more political and economic instability during the period investigated before the democratic elections. The increase in capital flight as a percentage of GDP may reflect the discomfort of those involved in capital flight in the post-apartheid democratic process. We also consider how international capital flows and structural weaknesses in the economy have influenced capital flight.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Morrison, Jamie

pdfModelling pro-poor agricultural growth strategies in Malawi: lessons for policy and analysis
October 2004
Andrew Dorward and Jamie Morrison
This paper pulls together insights from related farm-household and CGE modelling for Malawi to suggest wider methodological and policy lessons for pro-poor policy analysis in poor agrarian economies. The farm-household and CGE models and the principal results are summarised, and their strengths and weaknesses discussed. The discussion demonstrates the potential benefits of greater integration between farm household and economy wide models, and suggests ways in which this should be achieved. A number of conclusions also emerge regarding policies promoting pro-poor economic growth.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Morrissey, Oliver

Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Inflows: A Dynamic Analysis for Growth
July 2004
Oliver Morrissey, Tim Lloyd and Maxwell Opoku-Afari
One of the most challenging problems in developing countries such as Ghana is exchange rate management, that is, ‘getting the exchange rate right’ especially in the context of exchange rate misalignment. The major research and policy question is what constitutes the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and how can it be measured? Acknowledging the importance of fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate, the paper concentrates on the effects of capital inflows (by decomposing capital inflows into official inflows, “permanent” inflows and “non-permanent” inflows). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) techniques are used to model the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate in Ghana, and based on a multivariate orthogonal decomposition technique, the equilibrium steady state path is identified which is used in estimating misalignments. As predicted by the Dutch Disease theory, results indicate that capital inflows tend to appreciate the real exchange rate in the long-run. Capital inflows is the only variable generating real appreciation in the long-run; technology change, trade (exports) and terms of trade all tend to depreciate the real exchange rate. The only variable that has a significant (depreciating) effect on the real exchange rate in the short-run is trade, implying that changes in exports are the major driver of exchange rate misalignment. It is also shown that the real exchange rate is slow to adjust back to equilibrium, implying policy ineffectiveness or inflexibility.
Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana

Moser, Christine

The Complex Dynamics of Smallholder Technology Adoption: The Case of SRI in Madagascar
November 2006
Moser, Christine M. and Christopher B. Barrett
This paper explores the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption, with particular reference to a high-yielding, low-external input rice production method in Madagascar. We present a simple model of technology adoption by farm households in an environment of incomplete financial and land markets. We then use a probit model and symmetrically censored least squares estimation of a dynamic Tobit model to analyze the decisions to adopt, expand and disadopt the method. We find that seasonal liquidity constraints discourage adoption by poorer farmers. Learning effects—both from extension agents and from other farmers—exert significant influence over adoption decisions.
In Agricultural Economics 35(3):373-388, 2006.

Moustapha, M.

Improving Schools in a Context of Decentralization: Findings from Research in West Africa – Benin, Guinea, Mali and Senegal
November 2005
De Grauwe, A. and C. Lugaz (IIEP); D. Odushina and M. Moustapha (Bénin) ; D. Baldé (Guinée) ; D. Dougnon (Mali); and C. Diakhaté (Sénégal)
Discussions on decentralization have increased in complexity in recent years because of the deepened realization that the ‘school’ as an institutional unit is a core actor in ensuring educational quality. A growing number of studies demonstrate that the management of a school, the relationships between the different actors (the head teacher, the teachers and the community) and the school’s own involvement in defining and evaluating its improvement have a profound impact on the quality of education. This ‘autonomization’ of the school in combination with the more traditional forms of decentralization, has led to greater diversity in the policies implemented in different countries.
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005

Mude, Andrew

Mugumya, Firminus

Mugunieri, Lawrence

Decentralization and Access to Agricultural Extension Services in Kenya
October 2005
Nambiro, Elizabeth, John Omiti, and Lawrence Mugunieri
The form and content of decentralization has dominated development discourse and public sector reform agenda in Kenya in the last two decades. The case of agricultural extension service presents decentralization in a difficult context partly due to lack of information on its possible diverse impacts especially on resource poor farmers. This paper explores the effect of decentralization of agricultural extension on access, accountability and empowerment, and efficiency of delivering services to farmers. Secondary data, participatory research methods and primary data from a random sample of 250 farmers were used. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariate analysis and logistic regression. The results show that there is improved access to extension services with increasing level of decentralization. Farmers from areas with higher decentralized extension also showed enhanced level of awareness of different channels for delivery of extension services. This improved knowledge, being an important component of empowerment of the farming community, resulted from the increase of service providers, who displayed synergy in their multiple methods of operation. Public delivery channels were the most affordable and were also ranked first for quality. Income, literacy levels, distance from towns and access to telephone significantly influenced access to extension services. Gender of the household-head was a key determinant for seeking out extension services in areas with high concentration of agricultural activities. For a pluralistic system to work, there is need to for better co-ordination between the various groups. Although there is evidence of partnership and synergy between service providers, there appeared to be little effective co-ordination of the groups involved. The government, and other stakeholders should work towards developing a strong institutional framework that will guide and enhance this mutually beneficial partnership.

Muller, Colette

"Two million net new jobs": A reconsideration of the rise in employment in South Africa, 1995-2003
April 2004
Daniela Casale, Colette Muller and Dorrit Posel
In this paper we investigate labour market trends in South Africa between October 1995 and March 2003. In particular, we evaluate the South African government’s claim that over this period, the economy created two million net new jobs. Using the same household survey data as that used to generate official employment estimates, we also find an almost two million net increase in employment. However, we show that this increase is likely to have been inflated by changes in data capture and definitions of employment over the years, and that the real increase may be considerably less, with a lower bound of approximately 1.4 million jobs. We argue further that the rise in employment over the period must be evaluated in the context of a dramatically larger growth in labour supply and therefore rising rates of unemployment, declining real earnings, and an increase in the number of the working poor, particularly among Africans.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Munyao, Kioko

Decentralization of Pastoral Resources Management and its Effects on Environmental Degradation and Poverty, Experience from Northern Kenya
August 2007
Munyao, Kioko and Christopher B. Barrett
“Growing concerns about persistent poverty and environmental sustainability have helped fuel efforts at decentralizing governance throughout the developing world. The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro brought widespread calls for greater community participation and equity in natural resources management and sustainable development planning, and these pressures have grown amid institutional reforms fostered by movements towards democratization and market-based economic policy, spurred by, among others, the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) in the last two decades of the twentieth century (Goumandakoye 2003). Ironically, however, in many cases decentralization has been used by national governments not as a means to cede authority to local subjects, but rather to extend control still deeper into local community life and resource management, while still reaping the political capital associated with the rhetoric of bringing government services and development closer to the people. Often this involves the subtle but real transfer of influence, even control, from customary users of the resource to newcomers with better connections to government representatives... ”
In Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 2007.

Murilla, G. A.

Murithi, Festus M.

Livelihood Strategies in the Rural Kenyan Highlands
December 2006
Brown, Douglas R., Emma C. Stephens, James Okuro Ouma, Festus M. Murithi and Christopher B. Barrett
The concept of a livelihood strategy has become central to development practice in recent years. Nonetheless, precise identification of livelihoods in quantitative data has remained methodologically elusive. This paper uses cluster analysis methods to operationalize the concept of livelihood strategies in household data and then uses the resulting strategy-specific income distributions to test whether hypothesized outcome differences between livelihoods indeed exist. Using data from Kenya’s central and western highlands, we identify five distinct livelihood strategies that exhibit statistically significant differences in mean per capita incomes and stochastic dominance orderings that establish clear welfare rankings among livelihood strategies. Multinomial regression analysis identifies geographic, demographic and financial determinants of livelihood choice. The results should facilitate targeting of interventions designed to improve household livelihoods.
In the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1(1):21-35

Mwabu, Germano

Quantitative Poverty Analysis
March 2004
Germano Mwabu
Poverty is a complex human phenomenon associated with unacceptably low standard of living. It has multiple dimensions, manifestations and causes (World Bank, 2000). Poverty analysts from a variety of disciplines have been constantly asking questions about this phenomenon, sometimes out of curiosity, but often with the aim of providing information that can be used to overcome it. Quantitative methods help provide answers to particular questions about poverty and, can only provide partial information about it. Needless to say, no single approach to poverty appraisal can capture all the essential aspects of poverty. Choice of methods of poverty analysis is dictated by issues of interest to a researcher and his research skills. Because of the complexity of the poverty phenomenon, researchers have come to appreciate the need to specialize in acquiring skills that are necessary for understanding only certain aspects of poverty, and consequently the need to concentrate their work on areas of poverty appraisal in which they have comparative advantage in skill endowments. As Barrett (2001) has correctly observed, the type of poverty appraisal that has been undertaken over the past decades has been subject-driven, and researcher-directed. This is of course no accident. The economic concept of comparative advantage suggests that there is much efficiency (in advancing knowledge about poverty) to be gained from specializing in certain approaches to poverty appraisal. Quantitative poverty analysis is a particular area of poverty research in which investigators with quantitative skills specialize.

Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya

Mwangi, E.

Beyond Group Ranch Subdivision: Collective Action for Livestock Mobility, Ecological Viability and Livelihoods
June 2006
BurnSilver, S. and E. Mwangi
Pastoralism is the dominant land use in 25% of the world’s landscapes and comprises the basic subsistence strategy of 20 million households (Galaty and Johnson 1990). These rangeland ecosystems largely occur in regions too dry for rainfed agriculture, and are characterized by recurrent drought and strong intra- and inter-seasonal variability in climate (Ellis and Galvin 1994, Galvin et al. 2001). Historically, the primary pastoral response to minimize risk has been mobility. Opportunistic and extensive seasonal livestock movements provided access to water and forage resources that were heterogeneous (i.e., patchy) in space and time. This mobility occurred largely in the context of communal land tenure systems – wherein flexible use rights were negotiated through layered memberships in kinship, clan, and lineage groupings (Bekure et al. 1991, Lane and Moorehead 1994, Turner 1999). Recent developments in ecological and common property theories clearly support the logic of pastoral mobility to compensate for resource heterogeneity (Ellis and Swift 1988, Ostrom et al. 1999, Illius and O’Connor 2000). However, over the past three decades, a combination of government policy and internal drivers has pushed pastoral systems in the opposite direction, towards privatization of communal rangelands characterized by little flexibility (Galaty 1992, Niamir-Fuller 1999, Blench 2001). Many scientists are concerned this transition from mobile systems to continuous grazing of private parcels will lead to ecological degradation and spiraling poverty among pastoral households, and a gradual decrease in both system stability and sustainability (Ellis et al. 2001, Agrawal 2002, Reid et al. 2003, Boone and Hobbs 2004)
Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.

Myers, Robert J.

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