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Obwona, Marios

Access to Primary Education in Rural Uganda
May 2004
Nyankori, James C. O. and Marios Obwona
In this paper, we present an extensive statistical description of rural primary schools, schooling and students in Uganda and estimate the relationship between academic performance and selected personal, demographic, and school characteristics using a linear probability model subsequently extended to predict academic performance. The survey data indicate considerable categorical differences in personal, household and school characteristics, and these have important implications for schooling behaviors and outcomes. Linear probability model predictions of academic performance reveal significant categorical differences in age, sex, nutritional status, after school activities, post primary education preference, school attendance, household production activities, occupation of head of household, and relation to head of household relative to academic performance.
Final Report for SAGA Competitive Research Grants Program

Odhiambo, Michael Ochieng

Strengthening Pastoralists’ Voice in Shaping Policies for Sustainable Poverty Reduction in ASAL Regions of East Africa
June 2006
Hesse, Ced and Michael Ochieng Odhiambo
The absence of a representative and effective pastoral civil society movement capable of articulating its members’ vision of their development is one of the key factors explaining why policies for pastoral development continue to fail, and poverty and conflict still characterise many pastoral communities in East Africa. Development experience in pastoral regions, particularly since independence, has clearly shown that pastoral people tend to lack the knowledge, political clout and resources with which to fight their own cause, and thus remain vulnerable to other people’s interpretation of what is best for them. In particular, policy makers continue to impose on pastoralists what they perceive to be good for them with little or no reference to the communities themselves. That these perceptions are for the most part founded on stereotypes of what pastoralism and pastoral land use is, only serves to compound the problem.
Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.

Oduro, Abena D.

Understanding Poverty in Ghana: Risk and Vulnerability
July 2004
Appiah-Kubi, Kojo, Abena D. Oduro, and Bernardin Senadza
Poverty, as a reflection of material, social or rights deprivation, is of concern in its own right, hence its reduction has been the focus of economic policy in both developed and developing countries. However, as pointed out by Gibson (2001), people may, in a given time period, be poor either because their mean quantitative proxy indicator for poverty such as income, consumption expenditure or calories falls below the national average (or poverty line) or because they have suffered a temporary shortfall in consumption or income. In other words households or persons may be poor at a point in time either due to intertemporal variability in consumption or income, which is considered as “transient”, or because of the persistence of income or consumption expenditure below the poverty line, i.e. “chronic poverty” (Jalan and Ravallion, 1998). Therefore, for effective poverty reduction programmes, it is important to know not only those who are currently poor but also those who are vulnerable to poverty.
In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008.

Odushina, D.

Improving Schools in a Context of Decentralization: Findings from Research in West Africa – Benin, Guinea, Mali and Senegal
November 2005
De Grauwe, A. and C. Lugaz (IIEP); D. Odushina and M. Moustapha (Bénin) ; D. Baldé (Guinée) ; D. Dougnon (Mali); and C. Diakhaté (Sénégal)
Discussions on decentralization have increased in complexity in recent years because of the deepened realization that the ‘school’ as an institutional unit is a core actor in ensuring educational quality. A growing number of studies demonstrate that the management of a school, the relationships between the different actors (the head teacher, the teachers and the community) and the school’s own involvement in defining and evaluating its improvement have a profound impact on the quality of education. This ‘autonomization’ of the school in combination with the more traditional forms of decentralization, has led to greater diversity in the policies implemented in different countries.
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005

Ofei, Kwadwo Ansah

Terms and Access to Credit: Perceptions of SME/Entrepreneurs in Ghana
July 2004
Kwadwo Ansah Ofei
This research reports on the impact of financial sector liberalization program on the access to funding by Small and Medium Enterprises (SME’s) in seven regions in Ghana. Especially, it examines the extent to which differences in the development of the seven regions can cause access to funding. Small and Medium Enterprises (SME’s) in Ghana. in constitute a greater percentage of the economy of Ghana. There are, however, several constraints to the development of SME’s. Especially, the lack of access to resources and financial markets (Aryeetey et al 1994). Other constraints to SME development include difficulty in finding skilled labour to employ. There is also a problem of having access to modern technology. Many firms use old machinery, and have problems with finding replacements parts to purchase (Andrea 1981)
Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana

Okoh, Rosemary N.

The Global Market Place: How far can Nigeria go with the present non-oil product mix?
October 2004
Rosemary N. Okoh
This paper is an empirical analysis of the demand for Nigeria’s non-oil export merchandize with a view to providing an answer to the question of how far the present product mix would go in the global market. The study employed the Johansen’s test of co-integration and analysis of structural characteristics of the integrated stochastic variables in the error correction vector. The results of the study show that the present product mix of non-oil merchandize export, have low and negative long run income elasticity of demand, but high long run price elasticity of demand, such that prices rise and fall in response to the highly volatile global commodity market prices. This study has important implication for international trade policies in Nigeria and other Africa economies. Nigeria cannot maximize gains from global integration until the basic prerequisites for industrialization and modernization of the productive base have been properly established. Entering the global market prematurely is a deterrent to growth in export. Nigeria must do the first things first - invest on innovation and reduce the efforts towards global integration, since this will continue to be inimical to the Nigerian economy as long as the present mix of non-oil exports products remains.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Okpukpara, Benjamin Chiedozie

Child Schooling in Nigeria: The Role of Gender in Urban, Rural, North and South Nigeria
November 2005
Okpukpara, Benjamin Chiedozie and Nnaemeka A. Chukwuone
This research was conceived as a result of increasing drop out of children from school as well as high incidence of children combining schooling with some economic activities in Nigeria. Though many researches have been conducted in areas of school enrolment of the children in Nigeria, little or none of these researchers has bordered much on the role of child, parent, household and community characteristics on child schooling. Previous works centre mainly on explorative studies rather than econometric causes of the observed trends in school enrollment.
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005

Okurut, Nathan

Credit demand and credit rationing in the informal financial sector in Uganda
October 2004
Nathan Okurut, Andrie Schoombee and Servaas van der Berg
This paper focuses on identifying the factors that influence credit demand and also those that result in the poor being credit rationed by lenders. An understanding of both these sets of determinants could assist policy formulation to enhance the welfare of the poor through improved credit access. In this respect we were fortunate in having a dataset that contains questions not only on actual credit given, but also on loans applied for. This allows us to investigate both credit demand and credit supply, and to model these using observed household and individual characteristics.
Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa

Oladele, Oderinde

Public Education Expenditure and Defence Spending in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation
November 2005
Adebiyi, Michael Adebayo and Oderinde Oladele
In this study, we set out to empirically investigate the empirical relationship between public education expenditure and defence spending in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1970 to 2003. Some statistical tools are employed to explore the relationship between these variables. The study examines stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. This is followed by estimating the error correction model of public education expenditure. The effects of stochastic shocks of public education expenditure and defence spending are explored, using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Although it is contended by some that the military may contribute towards the promotion of the modernization of developing societies through the enhancement of the quality and quantity of human capital by, among others, dismantling social rigidities, there is limited conclusive evidence to support this view. In fact, a negative trade-off between defence spending and public education expenditure (used as a proxy for human capital formation) is generally expected. A regression analysis of the relationship between military spending and public education expenditure in Nigeria between 1970 and 2003 is positive and statistically significant in all the techniques employed. It should be pointed out that the statistical analyses conducted in this study are concerned only with reported public expenditures on education. Inasmuch as private education and private expenditures on public education are excluded, the data employed understate the country’s commitment to education. With this caveat in mind, the study concludes that it is not unlikely that military activity has served to enhance the productive capability of the Nigerian economy via some modernizing effect. Thus, in the short and long run, the impact of military expenditure on Nigeria’s stock of human capital, particularly education, has been positive.
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005

Oluoch-Kosura, Willis

Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar
February 2006
Barrett, Christopher B., Paswel Phiri Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo and Justine Wangila
This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household’s asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households' defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing.
In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 248-277, 2006
In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007.

Indices and Manifestations of Poverty: Informing Anti-Poverty Policy Choices
March 2004
Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Paswel P. Marenya, Frank Place and Christopher B. Barrett
Kenya has entered the 21st century with over 50% of its population classified as absolutely poor in that they live on less than a dollar a day. Per capita income is lower than at the end of the 1960’s. Income, assets, and access to essential services are unequally distributed. The country has made important economic reforms, improving macroeconomic management, liberalizing markets and trade, and widening the scope for private sector activity in the hope of improving economic growth and welfare for Kenyans. Yet, despite these reforms the country has experienced little growth and poverty continues to afflict an ever-larger segment of its citizenry, especially in rural areas.
Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya

Omiti, John

Decentralization and Access to Agricultural Extension Services in Kenya
October 2005
Nambiro, Elizabeth, John Omiti, and Lawrence Mugunieri
The form and content of decentralization has dominated development discourse and public sector reform agenda in Kenya in the last two decades. The case of agricultural extension service presents decentralization in a difficult context partly due to lack of information on its possible diverse impacts especially on resource poor farmers. This paper explores the effect of decentralization of agricultural extension on access, accountability and empowerment, and efficiency of delivering services to farmers. Secondary data, participatory research methods and primary data from a random sample of 250 farmers were used. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariate analysis and logistic regression. The results show that there is improved access to extension services with increasing level of decentralization. Farmers from areas with higher decentralized extension also showed enhanced level of awareness of different channels for delivery of extension services. This improved knowledge, being an important component of empowerment of the farming community, resulted from the increase of service providers, who displayed synergy in their multiple methods of operation. Public delivery channels were the most affordable and were also ranked first for quality. Income, literacy levels, distance from towns and access to telephone significantly influenced access to extension services. Gender of the household-head was a key determinant for seeking out extension services in areas with high concentration of agricultural activities. For a pluralistic system to work, there is need to for better co-ordination between the various groups. Although there is evidence of partnership and synergy between service providers, there appeared to be little effective co-ordination of the groups involved. The government, and other stakeholders should work towards developing a strong institutional framework that will guide and enhance this mutually beneficial partnership.

Onguene, V. P.

Access to Schooling and Employment in Cameroon: New Inequalities and Opportunities
April 2004
Eloundou-Enyegue, Parfait M., Ngoube Maurice, Okene Richard, V.P Onguene,Serge Bahoken, Joseph Tamukong, Moses Mbangwana, Joseph Essindi Evina, and Caroline Mongue Djongoue
This report is about recent trends in education and access to employment in Cameroon. It focuses on five questions about (1) current levels of schooling, (2) recent trends in enrolment, (3) recent trends in schooling inequalities, (4) access to employment, and (5) risks and opportunities to improve education and employment outcomes. Based on these analyses, the report discusses several challenges and opportunities in improving education and employment outcomes.

Oosthuizen, Morné

The Relative Inflation Experience of Poor Urban South African Households: 1997-2002
October 2005
Bhorat, Haroon and Oosthuizen, Morné
Much work has been done in South Africa on the relationship between the labour market and household poverty, as well as more generally the association of differentially sourced incomes to household poverty and inequality. The notion is that it is access to incomes, or lack thereof, which lies at the heart of characterising inequality and poverty in the society. Clearly though, a critical intermediary to income access remains the fluctuations in the real values of these incomes, despite controlling for access to income. This line of enquiry – namely the role of relative final price movements in affecting households across the income distribution –is a new one for the post-apartheid period, with its local intellectual origins lying in Kahn (1985). At one level the study aims to identify and quantify the impact of relative price movements on household poverty levels, with a key aim being to identify those products that are critical to indigent households’ vulnerability. At a more generic level, the paper is implicitly a representation of how the macroeconomic environment is able to, and indeed does, impact on household welfare. Ultimately, the paper hopes to deliver a detailed analysis not only of the construction of an appropriate consumer price index for South Africa, but also, through the use of income and expenditure survey data, the impact of reported price movements on inflation for households at different points in the national income distribution. Specifically, this study’s two main objectives are, firstly, to derive inflation rates for urban households grouped according to expenditure deciles and, secondly, to identify some of the key product categories responsible for the largest shares of inflation of the poorest 40% of urban households.

Evolution of the Labour Market: 1995-2002
December 2004
Bhorat, Haroon, and Morné Oosthuizen
Since 1994, the South African economy has undergone significant changes with the government implementing various policies aimed at redressing the injustices of the past, fleshing out the welfare system and improving competitiveness as South Africa becomes increasingly integrated into the global economy. These policies have, directly or indirectly, impacted on the labour market and, consequently, on the lives of millions of South Africans. This paper’s chief objective is the analysis of some of the changes in the South African labour market in the post-apartheid era. The period, between 1995 and 2002, began with much promise and many challenges as the economy liberalised and normal trade relations were resumed with the rest of the world. Soon after the African National Congress came into power, the macro-economic strategy named “Growth, Employment and Redistribution” (or GEAR) was unveiled in 1996. This strategy predicted, amongst other things, employment growth averaging 270 000 jobs per annum from 1996 to 2000, with the number of new jobs created rising over time from 126 000 in 1996 to 409 000 in 2000 (GEAR 1996). Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, these projections were not realised. In fact, in terms of the labour market, the experience of the second half of the 1990s appears to have fallen short of even the baseline scenario contained in the GEAR document, which projected a net increase in (non-agricultural formal) employment of slightly more than 100 000 jobs per annum.
In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.

Opoku-Afari, Maxwell

Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Inflows: A Dynamic Analysis for Growth
July 2004
Oliver Morrissey, Tim Lloyd and Maxwell Opoku-Afari
One of the most challenging problems in developing countries such as Ghana is exchange rate management, that is, ‘getting the exchange rate right’ especially in the context of exchange rate misalignment. The major research and policy question is what constitutes the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and how can it be measured? Acknowledging the importance of fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate, the paper concentrates on the effects of capital inflows (by decomposing capital inflows into official inflows, “permanent” inflows and “non-permanent” inflows). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) techniques are used to model the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate in Ghana, and based on a multivariate orthogonal decomposition technique, the equilibrium steady state path is identified which is used in estimating misalignments. As predicted by the Dutch Disease theory, results indicate that capital inflows tend to appreciate the real exchange rate in the long-run. Capital inflows is the only variable generating real appreciation in the long-run; technology change, trade (exports) and terms of trade all tend to depreciate the real exchange rate. The only variable that has a significant (depreciating) effect on the real exchange rate in the short-run is trade, implying that changes in exports are the major driver of exchange rate misalignment. It is also shown that the real exchange rate is slow to adjust back to equilibrium, implying policy ineffectiveness or inflexibility.
Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana

Osterloh, Sharon M.

The Unfulfilled Promise of Microfinance in Kenya: The KDA Experience
August 2007
Osterloh, Sharon M. and Christopher B. Barrett
“Microfinance offers promise for alleviating poverty by providing financial services to people traditionally excluded from financial markets. Small-scale loans can relieve capital constraints that might otherwise preclude cash-strapped entrepreneurs from investing in profitable businesses, while savings services can create opportunities to accumulate wealth in safe repositories and to manage risk through asset diversification. While this promise of microfinance is widely touted, it is infrequently subject to careful evaluation using detailed data. This chapter examines the extension of microfinance services to people in Kenya. Using data collected from seventeen Financial Service Associations (FSAs) founded by the Kenya Rural Enterprise Program (K-REP) Development Agency (KDA), we explore the intricacies of microfinance institutions emerging in these challenging environment...”
In Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 2007.

Ouma, Emily

Pastoralists Preferences for Cattle Traits: Letting Them Be Heard
June 2006
Ouma, Emily, Awudu Abdulai and Adam Drucker
This paper investigates preferences for cattle traits among a pastoral community in a trypanosomosis prevalent area in Kenya. Choice experiments and mixed logit models are employed to estimate economic values of preferred traits which could be introduced through systematic breeding in breed improvement programs that utilise trypanotolerance trait. The findings suggest preference for traits linked to drought tolerance, high live weight, trypanotolerance and fecundity. Identification and estimation of preferred traits provides useful information for breeding policy and provides a framework for promoting conservation of breeds that possess adaptability traits, critical for arid and semi-arid areas.
Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.

Ouma, James Okuro

Livelihood Strategies in the Rural Kenyan Highlands
December 2006
Brown, Douglas R., Emma C. Stephens, James Okuro Ouma, Festus M. Murithi and Christopher B. Barrett
The concept of a livelihood strategy has become central to development practice in recent years. Nonetheless, precise identification of livelihoods in quantitative data has remained methodologically elusive. This paper uses cluster analysis methods to operationalize the concept of livelihood strategies in household data and then uses the resulting strategy-specific income distributions to test whether hypothesized outcome differences between livelihoods indeed exist. Using data from Kenya’s central and western highlands, we identify five distinct livelihood strategies that exhibit statistically significant differences in mean per capita incomes and stochastic dominance orderings that establish clear welfare rankings among livelihood strategies. Multinomial regression analysis identifies geographic, demographic and financial determinants of livelihood choice. The results should facilitate targeting of interventions designed to improve household livelihoods.
In the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1(1):21-35

Overbosch, G. B.

Healthcare Provision and Self Medication in Ghana
October 2004
G. J. M. van den Boom, N. N. N. Nsowah-Nuamah and G. B. Overbosch
Self-medication is predominant in Ghana, where one out of four lives outside a 15 km radius of a doctor. The cost of visiting a doctor is almost $10, one third of monthly per capita expense, as compared to $1.5 for self-medication. Simulated utilization patterns indicate that higher densities (doctors within 15 km) and more insurance (flat rate tax covering half of the health expense) could raise demand for doctors by 15-20%. The poor though continue to rely on self-medication. Medicines that are affordable and of certified quality could thus play a key supplementary role in health sector development.
In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008.
Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana

Owusu, Francis

Organizational Culture, Performance and Public Sector Reforms in Africa: The Ghanaian Case
July 2005
Francis Owusu
Public sector reform programs implemented across Africa, including the World Bank’s “first” and ‘second” generation reforms, are based on the assumption that all public organizations are inefficient. This paper argues that this assumption is problematic and has had significant implications for policy. By failing to recognize that not all public organizations perform poorly, we ignore any potential lessons that could have been learnt from the experiences of organizations that have managed to perform effectively under the same social, political, economic and institutional environment. The study is based on the premise that the performance of an organization is influenced by the culture within the organization—which results from the ways in which organizations adapts to the external environment and the ways they ensure internal integration. Some organizations develop cultures that support, encourage and reward high performance; whereas others adopt a culture that perpetuates poor performance. Thus, public-sector reforms must be viewed as changing, or in some cases sustaining, organizational culture. Using Ghana as a case study, the study highlights lessons that can be learnt from studying differences in the performances of public organizations. It focuses on three-related issues. First, it addresses one major flaw of past reform policies—the assumption that all public organizations are ineffective. Second, it explores the relationship between organizational culture and performance. Third, it provides broad outlines of a comprehensive public sector reform strategy, centered on changing organizational cultures.
Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana

Oyaya, Jean Rémy

L’augmentation des budgets suffit-elle à la qualité des systèmes éducatifs? Cas du Gabon (Is a rise of public expenditures enough to improve the quality of educational systems? The Gabonese evidence.)
November 2005
Oyaya, Jean Rémy
The present survey is a contribution to the means to reach the objective education of quality for all. So it contributes at first to set out the dysfunctions of the Gabonese education system to justify the rise of the budget for the education. Using an econometric model of analysis, it thereafter contributes to the identification of the main determinants of the evolution of these public expenditures. But a rise of these expenditures is not enough to improve the quality of the educational system. So the study pleads subsequently for the stake of a preventive system of education. It concludes while putting the accent on the necessity of the State to fight against the corruption and to hold its liability, the one guarantee to the success of the reforms that a quality system of education for all supposes.
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005

Oyekale, A. S.

Do Mothers’s Educational Levels Matter in Child Malnutrition and Health Outcomes in Gambia and Niger?
November 2005
Oyekale, A. S. and T. O. Oyekale
Despite past policy interventions and supports, malnutrition remains one of the major problems confronting children in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). This study analyzed the effect of mothers’ educational levels on child malnutrition. Data from the 2000 End-Decade Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey by the United Nations International Children Emergency Funds (UNICEF) for Gambia and Niger were used. Data were analyzed with Foster-Greer-Thorbeck approach and Probit regression. Results show stunting, wasting and underweight head counts are higher in Niger rural and urban areas, while stunting, wasting and underweight head count, depth and severity are higher among children whose mothers had no secondary education for all the countries. The Probit analysis reveals that attainment of secondary education by the mothers, urbanization, presence of pipe water, presence of mother and father at home, polio vaccination, ever breast fed and access to radio and television significantly reduce the probability of stunting, wasting and underweight, while infection with diarrhea, fever and age at first polio vaccine significantly increase it. It was recommended that to reduce malnutrition and achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Gambia and Niger, institutional arrangements for catering for secondary education of girls and ensuring consistency in child health programs must be strengthened, among others.
Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005.

Oyekale, T.O.

Özler, Berk

Crime and Local Inequality in South Africa
October 2005
Demombynes, Gabriel and Berk Özler
We examine the effects of local inequality on property and violent crime in South Africa. The findings are consistent with economic theories relating local inequality to property crime and also with sociological theories that imply that inequality leads to crime in general. Burglary rates are 25-43% higher in police precincts that are the wealthiest among their neighbors, suggesting that criminals travel to neighborhoods where the expected returns from burglary are highest. Finally, while we find little evidence that inequality between racial groups fosters interpersonal conflict at the local level, racial heterogeneity itself is highly correlated with crime.
In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.

Poverty and Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Africa: 1995-2000
October 2005
Hoogeveen, Johannes G. and Berk Özler
As South Africa conducts a review of the first ten years of its new democracy, the question remains as to whether the economic inequalities of the apartheid era are beginning to fade. Using new, comparable consumption aggregates for 1995 and 2000, this paper finds that real per capita household expenditures declined for those at the bottom end of the expenditure distribution during this period of low GDP growth. As a result, poverty, especially extreme poverty, increased. Inequality also increased, mainly due to a jump in inequality among the African population. Even among subgroups of the population that experienced healthy consumption growth, such as the Coloureds, the rate of poverty reduction was low because the distributional shifts were not pro-poor.
In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006.

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