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SAGA PUBLICATIONS

Included here are Working Papers and Conference Papers.
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Zaal, Fred
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Contextualising Conflict: Introduced Institutions and Political Networks Combating Pastoral Poverty
June 2006
Zaal, Fred and Morgan Ole Siloma

Poverty and conflict both bring to mind images of destitution. Conflict causes destruction, destitution and disruption of society. The resources to which people have access are damaged to the degree that livelihoods are threatened and poverty is increased. Poverty may also lead to conflict as righteous claims on resources are not met (Verstegen 2001) and scarce resources are competed about (Homer-Dixon 1999). However, this last relationship may be a simplification, as there are many other causes for conflict that hide behind this simple explanation. For example, it may be that not the poor among themselves compete for scarce resources, but that parties previously not involved start to compete with the local poor. The poor may not even have the resources to start a conflict, but rather the well off who through a lack of political, social and cultural mechanisms for control, compete freely for access to resources. As conflict-resolution mechanisms are likely to be absent in those cases, there is very little likelihood of conflicts being moderated once they break out unhindered. In fact, conflicts may be the unavoidable outcome in any society where processes of resource access and distribution are not handled through established political institutions and their controlling elites (Verstegen 2001).
Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.




Zeitlin, Andrew
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Market Structure and Productivity Growth in Ghanaian Cocoa Production
June 2005
Andrew Zeitlin

This paper argues that market structure, and in particular the degree of competition among Licensed Buying Companies, is an important determinant of productivity in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. This issue is studied in the context of a two-year doubling of cocoa output at the national level. Evidence from microeconomic data confirms a significant increase among existing farmers, although this rate of in- crease is smaller than that observed at the national level. Analysis of production reveals an economically significant and statistically robust relationship between village-level Licensed Buying Company competition and the level and growth rate of total factor productivity.
Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana



Zivin, Joshua Graff
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The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya
February 2007
Thirumurthy, Harsha, Joshua Graff Zivin, and Markus Goldstein

Using longitudinal survey data collected in collaboration with a treatment program, this paper is the first to estimate the economic impacts of antiretroviral treatment in Africa. The responses in two important outcomes are studied: (1) labor supply of adult AIDS patients receiving treatment; and (2) labor supply of children and adults living in the patients’ households. We find that within six months after the initiation of treatment, there is a 20 percent increase in the likelihood of the patient participating in the labor force and a 35 percent increase in weekly hours worked. These results indicate that the labor supply response to treatment is both rapid and large. Since patient health would continue to decline without treatment, these labor supply responses are underestimates of the impact of treatment on the treated. The upper bound of the treatment impact, which is based on plausible assumptions about the counterfactual, is considerably larger and also implies that the wage benefit from treatment is roughly equal to the costs of treatment provision. The responses in the labor supply of patients’ household members are heterogeneous. Young boys work considerably less after initiation of treatment, while girls and other adults in the household do not change their labor supply. In multiple-patient households, only the labor supply of girls remains unaffected. The effects on child labor are particularly important since they suggest significant spillover effects from individual treatment.
Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya



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