SAGA PROGRESS REPORT (12/05-12/06) &
UPCOMING WORKPLAN (11/06-11/07)

APPENDIX IX
SAGA PUBLICATIONS 12/05-12/06
Published and Working Papers:

1. The Relationship between Poverty and Maternal Morbidity and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa
   December 2006
   Meyerhoefer, Chad and David E. Sahn
   “Good maternal health is of fundamental importance to a country’s well-being and ability to prosper, and there are few times when maternal health is more at risk than in the period surrounding childbirth. Protecting the health of mothers during reproduction safeguards their future contributions to society and ensures the health and productivity of future generations. If either the health of mothers or their newborn offspring is compromised, there will be serious negative consequences for their families, communities, and the entire process of economic and social development. This is why the United Nations has set as one of its eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the reduction of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by two-thirds in the developing world by the year 2015... ”
   Presented at the AERC/Hewlett Foundation Workshop, “Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and Reproductive Health Outcomes in Africa” in Brussels, Belgium, November 5-6, 2006.
   
   
2. Labor Market Activities and Fertility
   December 2006
   Younger, Stephen D.
   “This paper focuses on one aspect of the demographic transition, women’s labor market activity, and how it relates to the basic variables of fertility and poverty. Just as there are differences in fertility and mortality in rich and poor countries, there are differences in women’s time use. In rich countries, women tend to work outside the home, usually in wage employment on a fixed hourly schedule. In poor countries, women tend to work at home or, especially in Africa, on their family’s farm or at own- account activities where time use is more flexible. Understanding the relationship between the demographic transition and these differences in time use is our main theme...”
   Presented at the AERC/Hewlett Foundation Workshop, “Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and Reproductive Health Outcomes in Africa” in Brussels, Belgium, November 5-6, 2006.
   
   
3. Reproductive Health and Behavior, HIV/AIDS, and Poverty in Africa
   December 2006
   Glick, Peter
   “This paper makes an attempt to examine the complex linkages of poverty, reproductive health and behaviors, and HIV/AIDS in Africa. It addresses the following questions: (1) what have we learned to date about these links? (2) what policy issues arise and correspondingly, what are the gaps in knowledge to be addressed by research? (3) what are the appropriate methodological approaches to these questions? With regard to the last question, an effort is made to assess what can be learned both through new data collection and from existing sources such as the Demographic and Health Surveys that have been carried out in many African countries...”
   Presented at the AERC/Hewlett Foundation Workshop, “Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and Reproductive Health Outcomes in Africa” in Brussels, Belgium, November 5-6, 2006.
   
   
4. Export Processing Zone Expansion in Madagascar: What are the Labor Market and Gender Impacts?
   December 2006
   Glick, Peter and François Roubaud
   This paper analyzes part of the controversy over export processing zones—the labor market and gender impacts—using unique time-series labor force survey data from an African setting: urban Madagascar, in which the EPZ (or Zone Franche) grew very rapidly during the 1990s. Employment in the Zone Franche exhibits some basic patterns seen elsewhere in export processing industries of the developing world, such as the predominance of young, semi-skilled female workers. Taking advantage of microdata availability, we estimate earnings regressions to assess sector and gender wage premia. Zone Franche employment is found to represent a significant step up in pay for women who would otherwise be found in poorly remunerated informal sector work. Because it provides relatively high wage opportunities for those with relatively low levels of schooling, export processing development may also eventually have significant impacts on poverty. Further, by disproportionately drawing women from the low-wage sector informal sector (where the gender pay gap is very large) to the relatively well-paid export processing jobs (where pay is not only higher but also similar for men and women with similar qualifications), the EPZ has the potential to contribute to improved overall gender equity in earnings in the urban economy. Along many non-wage dimensions, jobs in the export processing zone are comparable to or even superior to other parts of the formal sector. However, the sector is also marked by very long working hours and high turnover, which may work to prevent it from being a source of long-term employment and economic advancement for women.
   Paper prepared for the conference “African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage” Cape Town, South Africa October 2004 In Journal of African Economies 15(4): 722-756, 2006
   
   
5. Agricultural Policy Impact Analysis: A Seasonal Multi-Market Model for Madagascar
   December 2006
   Stifel, David C. and Jean-Claude Randrianarisoa
   We describe the main features and results of a multi-market model for Madagascar that focuses on income generating activities in an agricultural sector that is characterized by seasonal variability. We find evidence that investments in rural infrastructure and commercial food storage have both direct and indirect benefits on poor households.
   In Journal of Policy Modeling 28(9):1023-1027, 2006
   
   
6. Decentralization of Pastoral Resources Management and Its Effects on Environmental Degradation and Poverty. Experience from Northern Kenya
   October 2006
   Munyao, Kioko and Christopher B. Barrett
   “Growing concerns about persistent poverty and environmental sustainability have helped fuel efforts at decentralizing governance throughout the developing world. The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro brought widespread calls for greater community participation and equity in natural resources management and sustainable development planning, and these pressures have grown amid institutional reforms fostered by movements towards democratization and market-based economic policy, spurred by, among others, the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) in the last two decades of the twentieth century (Goumandakoye 2003). Ironically, however, in many cases decentralization has been used by national governments not as a means to cede authority to local subjects, but rather to extend control still deeper into local community life and resource management, while still reaping the political capital associated with the rhetoric of bringing government services and development closer to the people. Often this involves the subtle but real transfer of influence, even control, from customary users of the resource to newcomers with better connections to government representatives... ” Forthcoming in 2007 in Decentralization and the
   Forthcoming in 2007 in Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International.
   
   
7. The Unfulfilled Promise of Microfinance in Kenya: The KDA Experience
   October 2006
   Osterloh, Sharon M. and Christopher B. Barrett
   “Microfinance offers promise for alleviating poverty by providing financial services to people traditionally excluded from financial markets. Small-scale loans can relieve capital constraints that might otherwise preclude cash-strapped entrepreneurs from investing in profitable businesses, while savings services can create opportunities to accumulate wealth in safe repositories and to manage risk through asset diversification. While this promise of microfinance is widely touted, it is infrequently subject to careful evaluation using detailed data. This chapter examines the extension of microfinance services to people in Kenya. Using data collected from seventeen Financial Service Associations (FSAs) founded by the Kenya Rural Enterprise Program (K-REP) Development Agency (KDA), we explore the intricacies of microfinance institutions emerging in these challenging environment...”
   Forthcoming in 2007 in Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International.
   
   
8. Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa
   September 2006
   Doss, Cheryl, John McPeak, and Barrett, Christopher B.
   This study investigates variation over time, space and household and individual characteristics in how people perceive different risks. Using original data from the arid and semi-arid lands of east Africa, we explore which risks concern individuals and how they assess their relative level of concern about these identified risks. Because these assessments were gathered for multiple time periods, sites, households and individuals within households, we are able to identify the degree to which risk perceptions vary across time, across communities, across households within a community, and across individuals within a household. We find the primary determinants of risk rankings to be changing community level variables over time, with household specific and individual specific variables exhibiting much less influence. This suggests that community based planning and monitoring of development efforts that address risk exposure should be prioritized. We also find that individuals throughout this area are most concerned about food security overall, so that development efforts that directly address this problem should be given the highest priority.
   
   
9. Testing the Kuznets Curve for Countries and Households Using the Body Mass Index
   September 2006
   Sahn, David E. and Stephen D. Younger
   This paper tests for relationships between level of well-being and inequality at both intercountry and intra-household levels, but using a different indicator of well-being, the body mass index (BMI). BMI captures individual’s consumption relative to their needs, and reflects a combination of both consumption (of calories, sanitation, and health care) and health status, two important dimensions of well-being. We do not find any evidence to support either the across country Kuznets curve or the intra-household Kuznets curve. Instead, we find consistent evidence for an increase in BMI inequality as average living standards (of countries or households) improve. A distinct and surprising result is that between one half and two-thirds of BMI inequality is accounted for by within-household BMI. This finding clearly suggests that a large share of the inequality that is measured using household surveys, assume that the well-being of all household members is the same, is likely grossly under-estimating overall inequality in a given country. It also implies that policies and programs that target households, not individuals, will be largely ineffective.
   Prepared for the WIDER Conference on Advancing Health Equity, Helsinki, Finland, September 29-30, 2006.
   
   
10. An Assessment of Changes in Infant and under-Five Mortality in Demographic and Health Survey Data for Madagascar
    September 2006
    Glick, Peter, Stephen D. Younger, and David E. Sahn
    Repeated rounds of nationally representative surveys are an important source of information on changes in the welfare of the population. In particular, policymakers and donors in many developing countries rely heavily on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to provide information on levels and trends in indicators of the health status of the population, including child survival. The reliability of observed trends, however, depends strongly on the comparability across survey rounds of the sampling strategy and of the format of questions and how interviews ask them. In Madagascar, the most recent (2003/4) DHS indicated very sharp declines in rates of infant and under-five mortality compared with the previous survey from 1997. However, retrospective underone and under-five mortality data in 1997 and 2003/4 for the same calendar years also show large differences, suggesting that this trend may be spurious. We employ a range of descriptive and multivariate approaches to investigate the issue. Despite evidence of significant interviewer recording errors (with respect to date of birth and age at death) in 2003/4, the most likely source of problems is that the two samples differ: comparisons of time-invariant characteristics of households and of women suggests that the later DHS sampled a somewhat wealthier (hence lower mortality) population. Corrections to the data using hazard survival model estimates are discussed. These suggest a much more modest reduction in infant and under-five mortality than indicated by the raw data for the two surveys.
    
    
11. Why and How to Sample Social Networks
    August 2006
    Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett
    This paper makes two methodological contributions to the growing literature on the role of social context in explaining individual behavior. The first is to show, through Monte Carlo simulation, that commonly used proxies to social networks that rely on community variables lead to misspecification and biased inferences and that one common alternative – studying actual links within a random sample – is likewise flawed. Our second contribution is to validate an alternative experimental approach, where willingness to establish links with randomly matched individuals is elicited from respondents. We show that this approach yields results that prove statistically indistinguishable from those generated from tracing respondents’ real networks.
    
    
12. Poverty Traps and Resource Dynamics In Smallholder Agrarian Systems
    August 2006
    Barrett, Christopher B.
    “...Conservationists too often ignore the predictable consequences of human agency; people adapt behaviors in response to changes in environmental management, often generating unintended consequences. Similarly, those of us studying the economics of poverty are only just beginning to grasp the importance of understanding the dynamics of agroecosystems and the feedback between the human and natural processes, especially in smallholder agrarian systems. This paper reflects my current thinking on these issues, approached from the perspective of the economics literature on poverty traps.”
    Prepared for the international conference on “Economics of Poverty, Environment and Natural Resource Use,” held at Wageningen University, the Netherlands, May 17-19, 2006
    
    
13. Inequality and Poverty in Africa in an Era of Globalization: Looking Beyond Income to Health and Education
    July 2006
    Sahn, David E. and Stephen D. Younger
    This paper describes changes over the past 15-20 years in non-income measures of wellbeing –education and health – in Africa. We expected to find, as we did in Latin America, that progress in the provision of public services and the focus of public spending in the social sector would contribute to declining poverty and inequality in health and education, even in an environment of stagnant or worsening levels of income poverty. Unfortunately, our results indicate that in the area of health, little progress is being made in terms of reducing pre-school age stunting, a clear manifestation of poor overall health. Likewise, our health inequality measure showed that while there were a few instances of reduced inequality along this dimension, there was, on balance, little evidence of success in improving equality of outcomes. Similar results were found in our examination of underweight women as an indicator of general current health status of adults. With regard to education, the story is somewhat more positive. However, the overall picture gives little cause for complacency or optimism that Africa has, or will soon reap the potential benefits of the process of globalization.
    Presented at the UNU-WIDER Conference on “The Impact of Globalization on the Poor in Africa,” Johannesburg, South Africa, 1-2 December, 2005
    
    
14. Spatial Integration at Multiple Scales: Rice Markets in Madagascar
    July 2006
    Moser, Christine, Christopher B. Barrett, and Bart Minten
    This paper uses an exceptionally rich data set to test the extent to which markets in Madagascar are integrated across space at different scales of analysis and to explain some of the factors that limit spatial arbitrage and price equalization within a single country. We use rice price data across four quarters of 2000-2001 along with data on transportation costs and infrastructure availability for nearly 1400 communes in Madagascar to examine the extent of market integration at three different spatial scales— sub-regional, regional, and national—and to determine whether non-integration is due to high transfer costs or lack of competition. The results indicate that markets are fairly well integrated at the sub-regional level and that factors such as high crime rates, remoteness, and lack of information are among the factors limiting competition.
    
    
15. Agricultural Technology, Productivity, and Poverty in Madagascar
    July 2006
    Minten, Bart and Christopher B. Barrett
    This paper uses a unique, spatially-explicit dataset to study the link between agricultural performance and rural poverty in Madagascar. We show that, controlling for geographical and physical characteristics, communes that have higher rates of adoption of improved agricultural technologies and, consequently, higher crop yields enjoy lower food prices, higher real wages for unskilled workers and better welfare indicators. The empirical evidence strongly favors support for improved agricultural production as an important part of any strategy to reduce the high poverty and food insecurity rates currently prevalent in rural Madagascar.
    
    
16. The Multiple Dimensions of Poverty in Pastoral Areas of East Africa
    June 2006
    Little, Peter, John McPeak, Christopher Barrett and Patti Kristjanson
    “...The most recent drought in East Africa has once again sharply exposed the layers of poverty, underdevelopment, and political marginalization in the region’s arid and semiarid lands (ASALs). Images of malnourished and thirsty children, lunar-like landscapes, and pained herders with their emaciated animals permeate the popular media, while governments, international agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) launch their normal appeals for food and external assistance. Like any natural disaster, the poor and vulnerable bear the brunt of such events, and tragically remind us that their shortterm suffering is symptomatic of longer-term structural problems of chronic poverty, food insecurity and inequality.”
    Overview Paper for the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
    
    
17. Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability
    June 2006
    Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett
    This paper studies the causal mechanisms behind poverty traps, building on evidence of nonlinear wealth dynamics among a poor pastoralist population, the Boran from southern Ethiopia. In particular, it explores the roles of adverse weather shocks and individual ability to cope with such shocks in conditioning wealth dynamics. Using original data, we establish pastoralists’ expectations of herd dynamics and show both that pastoralists perceive the nonlinear long-term dynamics that characterize livestock wealth in the region and that this pattern results from adverse weather shocks. We estimate a stochastic herd growth frontier that yields herder-specific estimates of unobservable ability on which we then condition our simulations of wealth dynamics. We find that those with lower ability converge to a unique dynamic equilibrium at a small herd size, while those with higher ability exhibit multiple stable dynamic wealth equilibria. Our results underscore the criticality of asset protection against exogenous shocks in order to facilitate wealth accumulation and economic growth and the importance of incorporating indicators of ability in the targeting of asset transfers, as we demonstrate with simulations of alternative asset transfer designs.
    Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
    
    
18. Productivity in Malagasy Rice Systems: Wealth-differentiated Constraints and Priorities
    June 2006
    Minten, Bart, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa and Christopher B. Barrett
    This study explores the constraints on agricultural productivity and priorities in boosting productivity in rice, the main staple in Madagascar, using a range of different data sets and analytical methods, integrating qualitative assessments by farmers and quantitative evidence from panel data production function analysis and willingness-to-pay estimates for chemical fertilizer. Nationwide, farmers seek primarily labor productivity enhancing interventions, e.g., improved access to agricultural equipment, cattle and irrigation. Shock mitigation measures, land productivity increasing technologies and improved land tenure are reported to be much less important. Poorer farmers have significantly lower rice yields than richer farmers, as well as significantly less land. Estimated productivity gains are greatest for the poorest with respect to adoption of climatic shock mitigation measures and chemical fertilizer. However, fertilizer use on rice appears only marginally profitable and highly variable across years. Research and interventions aimed at reducing costs and price volatility within the fertilizer supply chain might help at least the more accessible regions to more readily adopt chemical fertilizer.
    Invited panel paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Gold Coast, Australia, August 12-18, 2006.
    
    
19. Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia
    May 2006
    Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett
    This paper explores the consequences of nonlinear wealth dynamics on the formation of informal insurance networks. Building on recent empirical work among a poor population that finds evidence consistent with the hypothesis of poverty traps, and using original primary data on social networks and transfers, we find that asset transfers respond to recipients’ losses, but only so long as the recipients are not “too poor”. The persistently poor are excluded from social networks and do not receive transfers in response to shocks. We also find some evidence that the threshold at which wealth dynamics bifurcate may serve as a focal point at which transfers are concentrated. Our results suggest that, in the context of poverty traps, asset transfers may aim to insure the permanent component of income generation, rather than the transitory component, as standard insurance models assume.
    
    
20. Livelihood Strategies in the Rural Kenyan Highlands
    May 2006
    Brown, Douglas R., Emma C. Stephens, James Okuro Ouma, Festus M. Murithi and Christopher B. Barrett
    The concept of a livelihood strategy has become central to development practice in recent years. Nonetheless, precise identification of livelihoods in quantitative data has remained methodologically elusive. This paper uses cluster analysis methods to operationalize the concept of livelihood strategies in household data and then uses the resulting strategyspecific income distributions to test whether hypothesized outcome differences between livelihoods indeed exist. Using data from Kenya’s central and western highlands, we identify five distinct livelihood strategies that exhibit statistically significant differences in mean per capita incomes and stochastic dominance orderings that establish clear welfare rankings among livelihood strategies. Multinomial regression analysis identifies geographic, demographic and financial determinants of livelihood choice. The results should facilitate targeting of interventions designed to improve household livelihoods.
    Forthcoming in the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
    
    
21. Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands
    May 2006
    Mude, Andrew, Christopher Barrett, John McPeak, Robert Kaitho and Patti Kristjansen
    “..We focus on the arid lands of northern Kenya, largely populated by nomadic pastoralists and particularly vulnerable to covariate shocks in the form of droughts and floods. Our primary objective is to make use of household data collected over several years by the Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) in Kenya, and the spatially explicit data on forage conditions, rainfall and NDVI generated by the LEWS/LINKS team to develop an empirical forecasting model that can predict the expected human impact of covariate shocks and thereby provide a useful statistical method for early warning emergency needs assessment.”
    Presented at Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006.
    
    
22. Understanding Declining Mobility and Interhousehold Transfers Among East African Pastoralists
    May 2006
    Huysentruyt, Marieke, Christopher B. Barrett, and John G. McPeak
    We model interhousehold transfers between nomadic livestock herders as the statedependent consequence of individuals’ strategic interdependence resulting from the existence of multiple, opposing externalities. A public good security externality among individuals sharing a social (e.g., ethnic) identity in a potentially hostile environment creates incentives to band together. Self-interested interhousehold wealth transfers from wealthier herders to poorer ones may emerge endogenously within a limited wealth space as a means to motivate accompanying migration by the recipient. The distributional reach and size of the transfer are limited, however, by a resource appropriation externality related to the use of common property grazing lands. When this effect dominates, it can induce transfers from households who want to relieve grazing pressures caused by others’ herds. Our model augments the extant literature on transfers, and is perhaps more consistent with the limited available empirical evidence on heterogeneous and changing transfers’ patterns among east African pastoralists.
    
    
23. An Ordered Tobit of Market Participation: Evidence from Kenya and Ethiopia
    May 2006
    Bellemare, Marc F. and Barrett, Christopher B.
    Do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume decisions simultaneously or sequentially? This article develops a two-stage econometric model that allows testing between these two competing hypotheses regarding householdlevel market behavior. The first stage models the household’s choice of whether to be a net buyer, autarkic, or a net seller in the market. The second stage models the quantity bought (sold) for net buyers (sellers) based on observable household characteristics. Using household data from Kenya and Ethiopia on livestock markets, we find evidence in favor of sequential decision-making, the welfare implications of which we discuss.
    In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2):324-337, May, 2006
    
    
24. Improving Food Aid’s Impact: What Reforms Would Yield The Highest Payoff?
    April 2006
    Lentz, Erin C. and Christopher B. Barrett
    We develop an integrated model of the food aid distribution chain, from donor appropriations through operational agency programming decisions to household consumption choices. This tool permits simulation of alternative policies and sensitivity analysis to establish how variation in underlying conditions – e.g., delivery costs, the political additionality of food, targeting efficacy – affect the optimal policy for improving the well-being of food insecure households. We find that improved targeting by operational agencies is crucial to advancing food security objectives. At the donor level, the key policy variable under most model parameterizations is ocean freight costs associated with cargo preference restrictions on US food aid.
    
    
25. Robust Multidimensional Spatial Poverty Comparisons in Ghana, Madagascar, and Uganda
    April 2006
    Duclos, Jean-Yves, David E. Sahn, and Stephen D. Younger
    We investigate spatial poverty comparisons in three African countries using multidimensional indicators of well-being. The work is analogous to the univariate stochastic dominance literature in that we seek poverty orderings that are robust to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines and indices. In addition, we wish to ensure that our comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures for multiple welfare variables. In contrast to earlier work, our methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as "union", "intersection," or "intermediate" approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well-being. Further, unlike much of the stochastic dominance literature, we compute the sampling distributions of our poverty estimators in order to perform statistical tests of the difference in poverty measures. We apply our methods to two measures of well-being, the log of household expenditures per capita and children’s height-for-age z-scores, using data from the 1988 Ghana Living Standards Survey, the 1993 Enquête Permanente auprès des Ménages in Madagascar, and the 1999 National Household Survey in Uganda. Bivariate poverty comparisons are at odds with univariate comparisons in several interesting ways. Most importantly, we cannot always conclude that poverty is lower in urban areas from one region compared to rural areas in another, even though univariate comparisons based on household expenditures per capita almost always lead to that conclusion.
    In World Bank Economic Review 20(1):91-113
    
    
26. Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Climate Forecasts
    March 2006
    Lybbert, Travis J., Christopher Barrett, John G. McPeak, and Winnie K. Luseno
    Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations.
    Forthcoming in World Development
    
    
27. Policy impacts on schooling gender gaps in developing countries: The evidence and a framework for interpretation
    February 2006
    Glick, Peter
    In many regions of the developing world girls continue to receive less education than boys. This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of policies in the education sector and outside it on household schooling investments in girls and boys, distinguishing between policies that are ostensibly gender neutral and those that explicitly target girls. It is frequently (but certainly not universally) found that the demand for girl’s schooling is more responsive than boys’ to gender neutral changes in school cost or distance as well as quality. Although these patterns can be interpreted in terms of parental preferences, this paper shows that they can also plausibly be explained within a human capital investment framework through assumptions about the nature of schooling cost and returns functions. Among these policies, increasing the physical accessibility of schools emerges as a measure that may result in disproportionate enrollment gains for girls. Where gender gaps are large or persistent, however, direct targeting of girls is probably necessary. Formal evidence from a number of demand or supply side interventions, including subsidies to households and to schools to enroll girls and the provision of girlsonly schools, suggests the potential for targeted measures to yield substantial gains for girls. Many other policies, such as subsidized childcare or flexible school scheduling that address the opportunity costs of girls’ time, hold promise but for the most part have yet to be subject to rigorous assessment. The paper discusses methodological problems in such assessments and concludes with suggestions for future research on policies to close schooling gender gaps.
    
    
28. The Demand for Primary Schooling in Madagascar: Price, Quality, and the Choice between Public and Private Providers
    February 2006
    Glick, Peter, and David E. Sahn
    We estimate a discrete choice model of primary schooling and simulate policy alternatives for rural Madagascar. Poor households are substantially more priceresponsive than wealthy ones, implying that fee increases for public schools will have negative effects on equity in education. Among quality factors, multigrade teaching (several classes being taught simultaneously by one teacher) has a strongly negative impact on public school enrollments. Simulations indicate that providing teachers to reduce by half the number of multigrade classes in public schools would lead to modest improvements in overall enrollments, would be feasible in terms of costs, and would disproportionately benefit poor children. In contrast, consolidation of primary schools combined with quality improvement would be ineffective because of the negative effect of distance to school. Other simulations point to limits to a strategy of public support for private school expansion as a means of significantly increasing enrollment rates or education quality; such an expansion may also reduce overall education equity.
    In the Journal of Development Economics 79(1):118-145, 2006.
    
    
29. Cognitive Skills among Children in Senegal: Disentangling the Roles of Schooling and Family Background
    February 2006
    Glick, Peter, and David E. Sahn
    We use unique data to estimate the determinants of cognitive ability among 14 to 17 year olds in Senegal. Unlike standard school-based samples, tests were administered to current students as well as to children no longer—or never—enrolled. Years of schooling strongly affects cognitive skills, but conditional on years of school, parental education and household wealth, as well as local public school quality, have only modest effects on test performance. Instead, family background primarily affects skills indirectly through the duration of schooling. Therefore closing the schooling gaps between poor and wealthy children will also close most of the gap in cognitive skills between these groups.
    Presented at the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005
    
    
30. Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa
    February 2006
    Barrett, Christopher B., Michael R. Carter and Peter D. Little
    This paper introduces a special issue exploring persistent poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. As a set, these papers break new ground in exploring the dynamics of structural poverty, integrating qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis and adopting an asset-based approach to the study of changes in well-being, especially in response to a wide range of different (climatic, health, political, and other) shocks. In this introductory essay, we frame these studies, building directly on evolving conceptualisations of poverty in Africa.
    In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 167-177, lead article
    
    
31. The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: An Asset-Based Approach
    February 2006
    Carter, Michael R. and Christopher B. Barrett
    Longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty. While a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty, this paper develops an asset-based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep-rooted, persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes. Drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies, this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term, persistent structural poverty. We also propose an extension of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class of poverty measures to provide a natural measure of long-term welfare status. The paper closes with reflections on how asset-based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies.
    In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):178-199, 2006
    
    
32. Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar
    February 2006
    Barrett, Christopher B., Paswel Phiri Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo and Justine Wangila
    This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household’s asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households’ defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing.
    In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 248-277, 2006
    
    
33. Fractal Poverty Traps
    January 2006
    Barrett, Christopher B. and Brent M. Swallow
    This paper offers an informal theory of a special sort of poverty trap, one in which multiple dynamic equilibria exist simultaneously at multiple (micro, meso and/or macro) scales of analysis and are self-reinforcing through feedback effects. Small adjustments at any one of these levels are unlikely to move the system away from its dominant, stable dynamic equilibrium. Governments, markets and communities are simultaneously weak in places characterized by fractal poverty traps. No unit operates at a high-level equilibrium in such a system. All seem simultaneously trapped in low-level equilibria. The fractal poverty traps formulation suggests four interrelated strategic emphases for poverty reduction strategies.
    In World Development 34(1):1-15, 2006

1. From the International Conference on
   Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and Reproductive Health Outcomes in Africa
   Presented by The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
   November 5-6, 2006
   Brussels, Belgium
   
   
   • The Relationship between Poverty and Maternal Morbidity and Mortality in Sub- Saharan Africa
     December 2006
     Meyerhoefer, Chad and David E. Sahn
     “Good maternal health is of fundamental importance to a country’s well-being and ability to prosper, and there are few times when maternal health is more at risk than in the period surrounding childbirth. Protecting the health of mothers during reproduction safeguards their future contributions to society and ensures the health and productivity of future generations. If either the health of mothers or their newborn offspring is compromised, there will be serious negative consequences for their families, communities, and the entire process of economic and social development. This is why the United Nations has set as one of its eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the reduction of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by two-thirds in the developing world by the year 2015...”
     
     
   • Labor Market Activities and Fertility
     December 2006
     Younger, Stephen D.
     “This paper focuses on one aspect of the demographic transition, women’s labor market activity, and how it relates to the basic variables of fertility and poverty. Just as there are differences in fertility and mortality in rich and poor countries, there are differences in women’s time use. In rich countries, women tend to work outside the home, usually in wage employment on a fixed hourly schedule. In poor countries, women tend to work at home or, especially in Africa, on their family’s farm or at own- account activities where time use is more flexible. Understanding the relationship between the demographic transition and these differences in time use is our main theme...”
     
     
   • Reproductive Health and Behavior, HIV/AIDS, and Poverty in Africa
     December 2006
     Glick, Peter
     This paper examines the complex linkages of poverty, reproductive/sexual health and behavior, and HIV/AIDS in Africa. It addresses the following questions: (1) what have we learned to date about these links and what are the gaps in knowledge to be addressed by further research; (2) what is known about the effectiveness for HIV; prevention of reproductive health and HIV/AIDS interventions and policies in Africa; and (3) what are the appropriate methodological approaches to research on these questions. With regard to what has been learned so far, the paper pays considerable attention in particular to the evidence regarding the impacts of a range of HIV interventions on risk behaviors and HIV incidence. Other sections review the extensive microeconomic literature on the impacts of AIDS on households and children in Africa and the effects of the epidemic on sexual risk behavior and fertility decisions. With regard to methodology, the paper assesses the approaches used in the literature to deal with, among other things, the problem of self-selection and nonrandomness in the placement of HIV and reproductive health programs. Data requirements for different research questions are discussed, and an effort is made to assess what researchers can learn from existing sources such as Demographic and Health Surveys.
     
     
2. Economic Development and Northern Ghana
   Sponsored by
   Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER)
   Cornell University
   Economy of Ghana Network (EGN)
   University of Development Studies, Tamale
   Bolgatanga and Tamale, Ghana
   September 11-14, 2006
   
   Workshop Presentations:
   
   
   • Development in the North — Charles Jebuni
     
     
   • Developing Market-Based Strategies for Growth in Northern Ghana — Nii K. Sowa
     
     
   • Globalisation, Employment and Poverty in Ghana — Ernest Aryeetey
     
     
   • Economic Development and Northern Ghana: Can the Multi-Donor Budgetary Support (MDBS) System Improve Aid Effectiveness in Ghana? — Peter Quartey
     
     
   • Review of Performance of Ghanaian Economy in First Half of 2006 — ISSER
     
     
   • The State of the Ghanaian Economy Report, 2005 — ISSER
     
     
   • Pro-poor Growth in Ghana, and the Prospects in the North — Andy McKay
     
     
   • Can the Financial System Serve the Northern Poor? Microfinance and Grants for Community Development — William F. Steel
     
     
   • Accessible Information for Development Dialogue —
     
     
   • The Political Economy of Northern Ghanaian Development : Issues for Discussion — Saa Dittoh
     
     
   • Institutional Factors, Growth and Inequality; and Possible Implications for Ghana — Andy McKay
     
     
   • Technical Efficiency and Ghanaian Secondary Education — Kwabena Gyimah- Brempong
     
     
   • Economic Growth in Northern Ghana
     
     
3. From the Research Conference on
   Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa
   Organized by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
   Co-organizers: Prof. Chris Barrett (Cornell University), Prof. Peter Little (University of Kentucky), Prof. John McPeak (Syracuse University), and the Arid Lands Resource Management Project
   June 27-28, 2006
   Nairobi, Kenya
   
   Invited Presentations:
   
   
   • Beyond Group Ranch Subdivision: Collective Action for Livestock Mobility, Ecological Viability and Livelihoods — S. BurnSilver and E. Mwangi
     
     
   • Developing Market-Based Strategies for Growth in Northern Ghana — Nii K. Sowa
     
     
   • The Policy and Practice of Educational Service Provision for Pastoralists in Tanzania — Elizabeth Bishop
     
     
   • Collective Action and Informal Institutions: The Case of Agropastoralists of Eastern Ethiopia — Fekadu Beyene
     
     
   • Women’s Groups in Arid Northern Kenya: Origins, Governance, and Roles in Poverty Reduction — D. Layne Coppock, Solomon Desta, Adan Wako, Ibrahim Aden, Getachew Gebru, Seyoum Tezera, and Chachu Tadecha
     
     
   • Is Settling Good for Pastoralists? The Effects of Pastoral Sedentarization on Children — Elliot Fratkin, Martha A. Nathan, and Eric A. Roth
     
     
   • Livelihood Diversification in Borana Pastoral Communities of Ethiopia— Prospects and Challenges — Kejela Gemtessa, Bezabih Emana, and Waktole Tiki
     
     
   • Strengthening Pastoralists’ Voice in Shaping Policies for Sustainable Poverty Reduction in ASAL Regions of East Africa — Ced Hesse and Michael Ochieng Odhiambo
     
     
   • Maasai Pastoralists: Diversification and Poverty — K. Homewood, E. Coast, S. Kiruswa, S. Serneels, M. Thompson, and P. Trench
     
     
   • Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Land Privatization on Samburu Pastoralist Livelihood Strategies — Carolyn K. Lesorogol
     
     
   • Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid Lands — Andrew Mude, Christopher Barrett, John McPeak, Robert Kaitho, Patti Kristjansen
     
     
   Conference Briefs:
   
   
   • Livelihood Choices and Returns among Agro-Pastoralists in southern Kenya — M. Radeny, D. Nkedianye, P. Kristjanson, M. Herrero
     
     
   • Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability — Paulo Santos and Christopher Barrett
     
     
   • Women’s Groups in Arid Northern Kenya: Origins, Governance, and Roles in Poverty Reduction — D. Layne Coppock, Solomon Desta, Adan Wako, Ibrahim Aden, Getachew Gebru, Seyoum Tezera, and Chachu Tadecha
     
     
   • Cattle Breeding Strategies using Genetic Markers as a Pathway for Improving Competitiveness of Pastoral Systems in Kenya — Ulrike Janssen-Tapken, Haja N. Kadarmideen and Peter von Rohr
     
     
   • Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Land Privatization on Samburu Pastoralist Livelihood Strategies: 2000-2005 — DCarolyn K. Lesorogol
     
     
   • Conflict Minimizing Strategies on Natural Resource Management and Use—The Case for Managing Conflicts between Wildlife and Agro-pastoral Production Resources in Transmara District, Kenya — Sospeter Onchoke Nyamwaro, Grace Adira Murilla, Miyoro O. Kennedy Mochabo and Kennedy Barasa Wajala
     
     
   • Pastoralists Preferences for Cattle Traits: Letting Them be Heard — Emily Ouma, Awudu Abdulai and Adam Drucker
     
     
   • Influencing and Developing Good Policy in Early Childhood Development (ECD) amongst Pastoralist Communities in East Africa — Tanja van de Linde and Stephen Lenaiyasa
     
     
   • Property Rights among Afar Pastoralists of Northeastern Ethiopia: Forms, Changes and Conflicts — Bekele Hundie
     
     
   • Livelihood Diversification in Borana: Pastoral Communities of Ethiopia—Prospects and Challenges — Kejela Gemtessa, Bezabih Emana (Ph.D), Waktole Tiki
     
     
   • Maasai Pastoralists: Diversification and Poverty — K. Homewood, E. Coast, S. Kiruswa, S. Serneels, M. Thompson, P. Trench
     
     
   • Linkages between Biodiversity, Land Rights and Poverty in Tanzania: Increasing Incentives for Unsustainable Land Use Change through Conservation Policy — Hassan Sachedina
     
     
   • Is Settling Good for Pastoralists? The Effects of Pastoral Sedentarization on Children’s Nutrition, Growth, and Health Among Rendille and Ariaal of Marsabit District, Northern Kenya — Elliot Fratkin, Martha A. Nathan, and Eric A. Roth
     
     
   • Collective Action and Informal Institutions: The Case of Agropastoralists of Eastern Ethiopia — Fekadu Beyene
     
     
   • Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid Lands — Andrew G. Mude, Christopher B. Barrett, John McPeak, Robert Kaitho, Patti Kristjanson
     
     
   • Beyond Group Ranch Subdivision: Collective Action for Livestock Mobility, Ecological Viability and Livelihoods — S. BurnSilver and E. Mwangi
     
     
   • The Policy and Practice of Educational Service Provision for Pastoralists in Tanzania — Elizabeth Bishop
     
     
   • Contextualising Conflict: Introduced Institutions and Political Networks combating Pastoral Poverty — Fred Zaal and Morgan Ole Siloma
     
     
   • Strengthening Pastoralists’ Voice in Shaping Policies for Sustainable Poverty Reduction in ASAL Regions of East Africa — Ced Hesse and Michael Ochieng Odhiambo
     
     
   Conference Papers:
   
   
   • Beyond Group Ranch Subdivision: Collective Action for Livestock Mobility, Ecological Viability and Livelihoods — S. BurnSilver and E. Mwangi
     
     
   • The Policy and Practice of Educational Service Provision for Pastoralists in Tanzania — Elizabeth Bishop
     
     
   • Is Settling Good for Pastoralists? The Effects of Pastoral Sedentarization on Children’s Nutrition, Growth, and Health Among Rendille and Ariaal of Marsabit District, Northern Kenya — Elliot Fratkin, Martha A. Nathan, and Eric A. Roth
     
     
   • Livelihood Diversification in Borana Pastoral Communities of Ethiopia—Prospects and Challenges — Kejela Gemtessa, Bezabih Emana, and Waktole Tiki
     
     
   • Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Land Privatization on Samburu Pastoralist Livelihood Strategies: 2000-2005 — Carolyn K. Lesorogol
     
     
   • Women’s Groups in Arid Northern Kenya: Origins, Governance, and Roles in Poverty Reduction — D. Layne Coppock, Solomon Desta, Adan Wako, Ibrahim Aden, Getachew Gebru, Seyoum Tezera, and Chachu Tadecha
     
     
   • Influencing and Developing Good Policy in Early Childhood Development (ECD) amongst Pastoralist Communities in East Africa: The Case of Samburu in Kenya — Tanja van de Linde
     
     
   • Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability — Paulo Santos and Christopher B. Barrett
     
     
   • Conservation, Land Rights and Livelihoods in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania: Increasing Incentives for Non-conservation Compatible Land Use Change through Conservation Policy — Hassan Sachedina
     
     
   • Livelihood Choices and Returns among Agro-Pastoralists in Southern Kenya — M. Radeny, D. Nkedianye, P. Kristjanson, and M. Herrero
     
     
   • Pastoralists Preferences for Cattle Traits: Letting Them Be Heard — Emily Ouma, Awudu Abdulai and Adam Drucker
     
     
   • Cattle Breeding Strategies using Genetic Markers as a Pathway for Improving Competitiveness of Pastoral Systems in Kenya — Ulrike Janssen-Tapken, Haja N. Kadarmideen and Peter von Rohr
     
     
   • Conflict Minimizing Strategies on Natural Resource Management and Use: The Case for Managing and Coping with Conflicts between Wildlife and Agropastoral Production Resources in Transmara District, Kenya — S.O. Nyamwaro, G.A. Murilla, M.O.K. Mochabo and K.B. Wanjala
     
     
   • Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands — Andrew Mude, Christopher Barrett, John McPeak, Robert Kaitho, Patti Kristjansen
     
     
   • Property Rights among Afar Pastoralists of Northeastern Ethiopia: Forms, Changes and Conflicts — Bekele Hundie
     
     
   • Maasai Pastoralists: Diversification and Poverty — K. Homewood, E. Coast, S. Kiruswa, S. Serneels, M. Thompson, and P. Trench
     
     
   • Contextualising Conflict: Introduced Institutions and Political Networks Combating Pastoral Poverty — Fred Zaal and Morgan Ole Siloma
     
     
   • Strengthening Pastoralists’ Voice in Shaping Policies for Sustainable Poverty Reduction in ASAL Regions of East Africa — Ced Hesse and Michael Ochieng Odhiambo
     
     
   • Collective Action and Informal Institutions: The Case of Agropastoralists of Eastern Ethiopia — Fekadu Beyene
     
     

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