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SAGA PUBLICATIONS Included here are Working Papers and Conference Papers. Publications on this page are organized by author: RETURN TO MAIN AUTHORS PAGE Fafchamps, Marcel Public Service Provision, User Fees, and Political Turmoil January 2004 Fafchamps, Marcel and Bart Minten Following an electoral dispute, the central highlands of the island of Madagascar were subjected to an economic blockade during the first half of 2002. After the blockade ended in June 2002, user fees for health services and school fees were progressively eliminated. This paper examines the provision of schooling and health services to rural areas of Madagascar before, during, and after the blockade. We find that public services were more resilient to the blockade than initially anticipated, but that health services were more affected than schools. The removal of user fees had a large significant effect on public services that is distinct from the end of the blockade and the increase in school book provision. Fairburn, James Labour migration and households: a reconsideration of the effects of the social pension on labour supply in South Africa September 2004 Dorrit Posel, James Fairburn and Frances Lund This paper re-examines the effect of the South African social pension on the labour supply of working-age adults using data from 1993. We take account of the fact that households may include non-resident members, and therefore that the pension may play a role in facilitating migration to work or look for work. We find that rural African women are significantly more likely to be migrant workers when they are members of a household in receipt of a pension, and that it is female pension income that drives this result. We explore a number of possible reasons why pension income might have this effect. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Fedderke, Johannes From Chimera to Prospect: South African Sources of and Constraints on Long-term Growth October 2005 Fedderke, Johannes In this paper we consider the implications of evidence that has emerged over the past six years that carries insight into the growth and employment creation performance of the South African economy. The emphasis is explicitly on why limitation in the growth performance of the South African economy may have emerged. In Poverty and Policy in Post Apartheid South Africa, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Ravi Kanbur. Cape Town, South Africa: HSRC Press, 2006. Finnoff, Kade Capital Flight from South Africa, 1980 to 2000 October 2004 Seeraj Mohamed and Kade Finnoff Capital flight is a serious problem for South Africa, which if not addressed will continue to impede its ability to deal with structural issues such as high unemployment and concentration of wealth. This paper presents an estimate of the wealth that left South Africa in the form of capital flight during the period 1980 to 2000. We find that from 1980 to 2000 average capital flight as a percentage of GDP was 6.6 percent a year. In this paper, we deviate from the existing literature on capital flight from South Africa by suggesting that the motivation of people involved in capital flight before and after the fall of apartheid may have changed. We find that capital flight as a percentage of GDP was higher after the democratic elections in 1994, even though, there was much more political and economic instability during the period investigated before the democratic elections. The increase in capital flight as a percentage of GDP may reflect the discomfort of those involved in capital flight in the post-apartheid democratic process. We also consider how international capital flows and structural weaknesses in the economy have influenced capital flight. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Fonkeng, George Strategies to Reduce Repetition in Cameroon Primary School November 2005 Fonkeng, George Repetition is one indicator of the internal inefficiency of an educational system. In Cameroon, primary school repetition is high (40%) and as such, constitutes wastage particularly, and of course problematic to the state, parents and individual pupils/victims. It is conceptualized that efficiency as applied to educational achievement combines both qualitative and quantitative variables and relates inputs to outputs. An efficient educational system should enable students graduate within the time frame prescribed. If students spend more time than is required there is wastage. To combat this phenomenon in the primary school system in Cameroon, the government has resorted to experiment on some strategies namely: Compensatory Education, Competency-Based Teaching Approach, Automatic/ Administrative Promotion in addition to the New Pedagogic Approach with apparently, significant results in the reduction of repeating. It is concluded that these strategies based on a pupil-centred philosophy/pedagogy tend to promote learning and consequently, increase promotion in primary schools. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005 Forster, Felix The Evolution of Groupwise Poverty in Madagascar, 1999-2005 August 2010 Stifel, David, Felix Forster, and Christopher B. Barrett This paper explores whether there exist differences in groupwise poverty in Madagascar; that is, whether there is a pattern over time of consistently poorer performance among subpopulations readily identifiable by one or more identity markers. Three key messages come out of this analysis. First, there exists a core type of household that remained persistently poor over the 1999-2005 period. These households were largely not members of the dominant ethnic group, land poor, lived in remote areas, and were headed by uneducated individuals, most commonly women. Second, in addition to establishing the existence of persistent differences in poverty across groups, relative differences in returns to education, land and remoteness underscore the existence of differences within groups, as one characteristic affects the returns to another. Third, persistent differences in groupwise poverty is associated with multiple different identities, some of which are offsetting and some of which are reinforcing. For example, women’s higher education tends to offset the disadvantages associated with being a head of household, while remoteness compounds the disadvantages associated with living in female-headed households. Paper presented at workshop hosted by the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE): The Persistence of Inequalities, Department of International Development, University of Oxford, April 4, 2008 In Journal of African Economies 19(4):559-604, August, 2010 Fosu, Augustin K. Economic Growth in Ghana: 1960-2000 July 2004 Ernest Aryeetey and Augustin K. Fosu It was fairly common in the 1980s and early 90s to read commendations of Ghana’s economic growth achievements. Leechor (1994) described Ghana as a frontrunner in the economic reform process, and the Bretton Woods institutions regularly put Ghana forward as a showcase of economic success in Africa. But this occurred at a time when many Ghanaians showed little appreciation of that growth achievement (Aryeetey and Tarp 2000). The continuing fragility of the economy and the significant social costs of adjustment made it difficult to appreciate economic growth in a period of reforms. While there is no doubt about the fact that the economic growth record of the last two decades, following reforms, differed from that of the first two decades in terms of consistency, it is also clear that the factors behind the growth experiences of shorter periods in-between show remarkable similarity. Whenever there has been considerable capital injection into the economy, this has been followed by significant growth. It is the difficulty in making those injections consistently in the absence of structural change that has left the economy still fragile after four decades of independence. In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana Franklin, David L. Persistent Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Instability in Ghana September 2004 Curtis E. Youngblood and David L. Franklin Over the decade of the 1990s Ghana was considered an example among African countries regarding the pace and extent of its economic reforms affecting its trade regime, its financial sector, and the conduct of its fiscal and monetary policy (Kapur et al., 1991). This reputation was earned in the latter half of the 1980s when Ghana’s government instituted a series of policy measures to rescue its economy from the depths of its most severe crisis in the post-colonial period. This program, the Economic Recovery Program (ERP), placed Ghana on a path of modest economic growth: from a per capita GDP of $309 in 1983, per capita income grew at an average rate of 1.8% per year to $371 in 1993. In spite of this early promise and the good reputation it achieved with the international financial institutions, international donors and its own private enterprise sector, Ghana’s economic growth has continued to be moderate. Per capita GDP in 2000 was $411, so that per capita incomes grew at only 1.5% per year from 1993 through 2000. At this rate, incomes will double in 50 years. This is a far cry from the ambitious growth rates envisioned in official growth plans such as Vision 2020, which was predicated on per capita growth rates of 5%-7% per annum. Yet, it is perplexing to most observers that in March 2001 the recently elected government of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) sought relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, as it dealt with the aftermath of a massive currency crisis. In Ernest Aryeetey and Ravi Kanbur (editors), The Economy of Ghana: Analytical Perspectives on Stability, Growth and Poverty, James Currey, 2008. Presented at the ISSER-University of Ghana-Cornell University International Conference on "Ghana at the Half Century," July 18-20, 2004, Accra, Ghana Fratkin, Elliot Is Settling Good for Pastoralists? The Effects of Pastoral Sedentarization on Children’s Nutrition, Growth, and Health Among Rendille and Ariaal of Marsabit District, Northern Kenya June 2006 Fratkin, Elliot, Martha A. Nathan, and Eric A. Roth The settling of formerly mobile pastoral populations is occurring rapidly throughout East Africa. Pastoral sedentarization has been encouraged by international development agencies and national governments to alleviate problems of food insecurity, health care delivery, and national integration. However, it has not been demonstrated that abandoning the pastoral way of life, and particularly access to livestock products, has been beneficial to the health and well-being of pastoral populations. This paper reports the results of a three-year study of pastoral and settled Rendille and Ariaal (mixed Samburu/Rendille) communities in Marsabit District northern Kenya, which compares levels of child malnutrition and illness between five different Rendille communities, ranging from purely pastoral to agricultural and urban communities. Analysis of bimonthly dietary recalls, anthropometric measurements, morbidity data, and economic differentiation and specialization among 202 mothers and their 488 children under age 9 reveals large differences in the growth patterns and morbidity of nomadic vs. settled children. In particular, age-specific height and weight measurements for the nomadic pastoral community are significantly higher than same-aged measurements of children from the sedentary villages. Furthermore, women and especially pregnant women showed higher levels of malnutrition in the settled communities. Both women and children showed higher rates of respiratory and diarrheal morbidity in settled versus nomadic communities, although malaria rates were uniformly higher in lowland communities than in the highlands. Differences in child growth are attributed mainly to better nutrition, and particularly access to camel’s milk within the nomadic communities. The striking decrease in diarrheal and respiratory diseases for the nomadic children vs. settled children coupled with the findings of a relative decrease in malnutrition and stunting indicate an unexpected edge for health and growth of nomadic Rendille children. The policy implications of our findings are significant. Although pastoralism is not an option for everyone living in dry regions like northern Kenya, the decrease in diarrheal and respiratory illness and for pastoralist children, and the higher levels of stunting in settled children from pastoral populations, should be part of decisions affecting social, economic, and health policy for pastoral regions. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Freire, Sandra Impact of HIV/AIDS on saving behaviour in South Africa October 2004 Sandra Freire The models measuring the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS are heterogeneous : each one relies on a specific theoretical background. Nevertheless, there are, at least, three main common limits to those approaches : the authors concentrate on the impact on the labour market ; they neglect the potential implications on the capital market ; and they do not model some essential microeconomic impacts such as the change in the agents’ economic behaviour. More specifically, the analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on savings takes into account direct costs such as health expenditures, seldom indirect costs like the anticipation of funeral costs and they do not model differed indirect costs. The paper proposes an analysis of this last kind of implications through the impact of the epidemic on the saving behaviour. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of life expectancy and is based on two frameworks: the Galí (1990) model which considers the life cycle theory with a finite horizon at the aggregate level and the Moresi (1999) model which specifies a peculiar consumption utility function through uncertain lifetime. The calibration and simulations of our model reveal a significant drop in the future saving rate in South Africa under the hypothesis of a virus evolution similar to the one given by the UN Population Division : the saving rate in 2015, under those hypothesis, should be at least 5 percentage points inferior to the estimated saving rate that would then prevail in the absence of the epidemic. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Frölich, Markus Can Information Campaigns Eradicate AIDS? The Effect of HIV Knowledge and Risk Behavior on HIV Status: The Case of Three Sub-Saharan Countries February 2007 Frölich, Markus and Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez AIDS continues to have a devastating effect on many developing economies, par- ticularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the lack of a vaccine to stop HIV transmission and the very expensive medical treatment, most public policy emphasis has been placed on edu- cation and particular information campaigns. In this paper, we examine the impact of AIDS education from two sides. First, we examine to what extent information campaigns have been successful in reducing HIV prevalence and incidence. Second, we examine the impact of actual AIDS knowledge on HIV rates. The basic policy issue can be expressed as follows: Suppose that everyone knew and understood the basic facts about AIDS, would this reduce HIV rates to (almost) zero? If so, public policy should target groups with incomplete knowledge. If not, information campaigns alone are bound to fail and much stronger interventions are required to eradicate AIDS. Using rich data sets from three Sub-Saharan economies (Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia) we investigate the effect of observed HIV related knowledge on the probability of catching the virus using data on individuals. Our analysis controls for detailed individual specific characteristics including variables reflecting innate risk behaviour that may drive the risk of becoming HIV positive irrespective of HIV related health knowledge. We examine fur- ther how these effects differ between different groups, thereby identifying target groups that public information campaigns should direct more attention to. Results so far are preliminary. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Fryer, David The dynamics of job search and the microfoundations of unemployment: Evidence from Duncan village October 2004 Patrick Duff and David Fryer There is significant consensus that unemployment and more generally, exclusion from the labour market, is the central socio-economic problem in South Africa. Joblessness is strongly implicated in such socio-economic problems as crime, poverty, alcoholism, HIVAIDS, and even poor educational outcomes and low skill levels (see for example Bhorat et al. 2001; Fryer and Vencatachellum, 2004; Nattrass, 2003). The literature flowing from household survey data has however tended to confine itself to measuring unemployment and its consequences. In doing this, it tends to treat unemployment as something that happens to individuals and communities. However, factors such as unemployment and poverty will have obvious feedback effects on the current capabilities of individuals, on the intergenerational transmission of capital (and especially human capital) and on social and market structure. Below critical threshold levels, such factors can generate market and coordination failures. The distortions generated by unemployment can become endogenized in the sense that they become part of the cause of unemployment. To date, there is no clear understanding in the South African literature as to whether such endogenous factors are important and how they interact with other factors such as so-called imposed distortions (caused, for example by labour legislation and union wage premia) and other macroeconomic causes of unemployment. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Fufa, Bekabil Stochastic Technology and Crop Production Risk: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers in East Hararghe Zone of Oromiya Regional State in Ethiopia July 2005 Bekabil Fufa and R.M. Hassan This study used the Just and Pope stochastic production technology specification to analyse the crop production and supply response behaviour of farmers in East Hararghe zone of Ethiopia under production risk. The results showed that improved seed, human labour, oxen labour and planting date were the most important determinants of yield levels of the crops grown in the area. On the other hand, the use of improved seed and fertilizer were yield risk increasing inputs in the production of maize and sorghum crops. However, early planting for all the annual crops grown, use of human labour for the package crops and oxen labour for all food crops grown in Faddis district were found to have yield risk reducing effects. The results have important implications for agricultural technology development and transfer in the study area. To reduce the yield risk increasing effect of fertilizer, the development and promotion of new crop varieties should consider fertilizer application trails for different levels across different agro-ecologies and farmers’ conditions. Also, farmers need to be provided with adequate advice and information on the use and application of fertilizer. Moreover, to overcome the yield risk increasing effect of improved seed, varieties should be tested for their suitability to varying agro-ecologies and management conditions of the farmers in the area. Extension advice and information on the management of the improved crop varieties need to be provided to the farmers to improve the yield stability of the crops. In addition, extension advice on early planting, provision of meteorological information to farmers to aid them in planting date decisions and development of short period maturing varieties could help to reduce variability in the yield levels of crops grown in the area. Finally, improving the small-scale farmers’ access to oxen would also enable the farmers to achieve stable yields from crop production. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Return to MAIN AUTHORS PAGE

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