VIEW
PUBLICATIONS
BY:

→ RESEARCH THEME

→ AUTHOR

→ PUBLICATION DATE

SAGA
B16 MVR Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
(607) 255-8931
Fax (607) 255-0178
saga@cornell.edu

SAGA PUBLICATIONS Included here are Working Papers and Conference Papers. Publications on this page are organized by geographical focus: RETURN TO MAIN PUBLICATIONS BY GEOGRAPHY PAGE KENYA Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behavior February 2011 Stephens, Emma C. and Christopher B. Barrett Seasonal market participation patterns for smallholder farmers in western Kenya indicate that a signicant proportion follow a ‘sell low, buy high’ marketing strategy, in which these households forego opportunities for intertemporal price arbitrage through storage and are observed to sell output post-harvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We use data from the region to examine whether this behavior can be partly explained by the presence of a binding liquidity constraint for these farmers. We estimate a multi-period market participation model in the presence of liquidity constraints and transactions costs using maximum likelihood. Access to credit and off-farm income indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviors in a manner consistent with the hypothesized patterns. In Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1): 1-24, February, 2011 Social Learning, Social Influence and Projection Bias: A caution on inferences based on proxy-reporting of peer behavior April 2010 Hogset, Heidi and Christopher B. Barrett This paper explores the consequences of conflating social learning and social influence concepts and of the widespread use of proxy-reported behavioral data for accurate understanding of learning from others. Our empirical analysis suggests that proxy-reporting is more accurate for new innovations, about which social learning is more plausible, than for mature technologies. Furthermore, proxy-reporting errors are correlated with respondent attributes, suggesting projection bias. Self- and proxy-reported variables generate different regression results, raising questions about inferences based on error-prone, proxy-reported peer behaviors. Self-reported peer behavior consistently exhibits statistically insignificant effects on network members’ adoption behavior, suggesting an absence of social effects. In Economic Development and Cultural Change 58(3):563-589 Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency Response: An Application to Kenya’s Arid North August 2009 Mude, Andrew, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. McPeak, Robert Kaitho and Patti Kristjansen Mitigating the negative welfare consequences of crises such as droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks, is a major challenge in many areas of the world, especially in highly vulnerable areas insufficiently equipped to prevent food and livelihood security crisis in the face of adverse shocks. Given the finite resources allocated for emergency response, and the expected increase in incidences of humanitarian catastrophe due to changing climate patterns, there is a need for rigorous and efficient methods of early warning and emergency needs assessment. In this paper we develop an empirical model, based on a relatively parsimonious set of regularly measured variables from communities in Kenya’s arid north, that generates remarkably accurate forecasts of the likelihood of famine with at least three months lead time. Such a forecasting model is a potentially valuable tool for enhancing early warning capacity. Presented at Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006 In Food Policy 34(4): 329-339, August, 2009 Understanding Declining Mobility and Inter-household Transfers among East African Pastoralists April 2009 Huysentruyt, Marieke, Christoper B. Barrett, and John G. McPeak We model inter-household transfers between nomadic livestock herders as the state-dependent consequence of individuals’ strategic interdependence, resulting from the existence of multiple, opposing externalities—more specifically, a public-good security externality among individuals sharing a social (e.g. ethnic) identity in a potentially hostile environment, and a resource appropriation externality related to the use of common property grazing lands. Our model augments the extant literature on transfers, and is more consistent with the limited available empirical evidence on heterogeneous and changing transfers’ patterns among east African pastoralists. The core principles of our model possibly apply more broadly, for example to long-distance migrants or even ‘foot soldiers’in street gangs. In Economica 76(302): 315-336, April, 2009 Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex: Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries January 2008 Glick, Peter and David E. Sahn We use repeated rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from eight African countries to examine changes in and determinants of three HIV risk behaviors: age at first intercourse; number of current sexual partners, and use of condoms. As a prelude, we assess the within- country comparability of DHS surveys over time. We find some evidence of changes in sample composition, which is easily handled in a multivariate framework, and find evidence as well of changes in how people respond to questions about HIV behavior. Because of the latter, which likely represents an increase in social desirability bias over time, our estimates of risk reduction may be upper bounds on the true effects. Overall the picture is one of reductions in risk behaviors over recent 4-6 year intervals, especially with respect to condom use; in some cases the changes seem large given the short time periods involved. With some exceptions, however, the extent and pervasiveness of these changes seems inadequate in relation to the urgency of the public health crisis represented by AIDS. With respect to the determinants of behaviors, schooling and wealth have contradictory impacts on risk behavior: they both tend to increase the likelihood of using condoms while (for men) also increasing the demand for additional sexual partners. Presented at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Seminar on “Interactions between Poverty and HIV/AIDS,” Cape Town, South Africa, December 2005. Alternate version in Economic Development and Cultural Change, 56(2):397-439, January, 2008 Decentralization of Pastoral Resources Management and its Effects on Environmental Degradation and Poverty, Experience from Northern Kenya August 2007 Munyao, Kioko and Christopher B. Barrett “Growing concerns about persistent poverty and environmental sustainability have helped fuel efforts at decentralizing governance throughout the developing world. The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro brought widespread calls for greater community participation and equity in natural resources management and sustainable development planning, and these pressures have grown amid institutional reforms fostered by movements towards democratization and market-based economic policy, spurred by, among others, the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) in the last two decades of the twentieth century (Goumandakoye 2003). Ironically, however, in many cases decentralization has been used by national governments not as a means to cede authority to local subjects, but rather to extend control still deeper into local community life and resource management, while still reaping the political capital associated with the rhetoric of bringing government services and development closer to the people. Often this involves the subtle but real transfer of influence, even control, from customary users of the resource to newcomers with better connections to government representatives... ” In Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 2007. The Unfulfilled Promise of Microfinance in Kenya: The KDA Experience August 2007 Osterloh, Sharon M. and Christopher B. Barrett “Microfinance offers promise for alleviating poverty by providing financial services to people traditionally excluded from financial markets. Small-scale loans can relieve capital constraints that might otherwise preclude cash-strapped entrepreneurs from investing in profitable businesses, while savings services can create opportunities to accumulate wealth in safe repositories and to manage risk through asset diversification. While this promise of microfinance is widely touted, it is infrequently subject to careful evaluation using detailed data. This chapter examines the extension of microfinance services to people in Kenya. Using data collected from seventeen Financial Service Associations (FSAs) founded by the Kenya Rural Enterprise Program (K-REP) Development Agency (KDA), we explore the intricacies of microfinance institutions emerging in these challenging environment...” In Decentralization and the Social Economics of Development: Lessons from Kenya, edited by Christopher B. Barrett, Andrew G. Mude, and John M. Omiti. Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 2007. Boda Bodas Rule: Non-agricultural Activities and Their Inequality Implications in Western Kenya March 2007 Lay, Jann, George Michuki M’Mukaria and Toman Omar Mahmoud Engagement in non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be classified into survival-led or opportunity-led. Survival-led diversification would decrease inequality by increasing the incomes of poorer households and thus reduce poverty. By contrast, opportunity-led diversification would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from Western Kenya, we confirm the existence of the differently motivated diversification strategies. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications differ somewhat from our expectations. Our findings indicate that in addition to asset constraints, rural households also face limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Sex Work as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya March 2007 Robinson, Jonathan and Ethan Yeh Formal and informal commercial sex work is a way of life for many poor women in developing countries. Though sex workers have long been identified as crucial in affecting the spread of HIV/AIDS, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the nature of sex-for-money transactions remains poorly understood. This paper investigates sex worker behavior using daily self-reported data on sexual behavior, income shocks, expenditures, and labor supply for a sample of 237 women in Western Kenya. We find significant day-to-day fluctuations in sex worker decisions, and that women engage in sex-for-money transactions in part to deal with unexpected non-labor income shocks. Riskier sex is better compensated in Western Kenya, and we find that women increase their supply of riskier, better compensated sex on days in which a household member falls ill. In particular, women are 23.6% more likely to have unprotected sex, 16.8% more likely to have anal sex, and increase the number of unprotected sexual acts by 21.7% on such days. These increases in risky sexual behavior have important health consequences for these women and on the spread of HIV/AIDS. While not denying the need for interventions that encourage women to leave the commercial sex industry, our research suggests that important opportunities exist to reduce the health risks of sex work within sex work beyond HIV education and condom distribution. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Climate Forecasts March 2007 Lybbert, Travis J., Christoper Barrett, John G. McPeak, and Winnie K. Luseno Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations. In World Development 35(3):480-497 Can Information Campaigns Eradicate AIDS? The Effect of HIV Knowledge and Risk Behavior on HIV Status: The Case of Three Sub-Saharan Countries February 2007 Frölich, Markus and Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez AIDS continues to have a devastating effect on many developing economies, par- ticularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the lack of a vaccine to stop HIV transmission and the very expensive medical treatment, most public policy emphasis has been placed on edu- cation and particular information campaigns. In this paper, we examine the impact of AIDS education from two sides. First, we examine to what extent information campaigns have been successful in reducing HIV prevalence and incidence. Second, we examine the impact of actual AIDS knowledge on HIV rates. The basic policy issue can be expressed as follows: Suppose that everyone knew and understood the basic facts about AIDS, would this reduce HIV rates to (almost) zero? If so, public policy should target groups with incomplete knowledge. If not, information campaigns alone are bound to fail and much stronger interventions are required to eradicate AIDS. Using rich data sets from three Sub-Saharan economies (Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia) we investigate the effect of observed HIV related knowledge on the probability of catching the virus using data on individuals. Our analysis controls for detailed individual specific characteristics including variables reflecting innate risk behaviour that may drive the risk of becoming HIV positive irrespective of HIV related health knowledge. We examine fur- ther how these effects differ between different groups, thereby identifying target groups that public information campaigns should direct more attention to. Results so far are preliminary. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya February 2007 Thirumurthy, Harsha, Joshua Graff Zivin, and Markus Goldstein Using longitudinal survey data collected in collaboration with a treatment program, this paper is the first to estimate the economic impacts of antiretroviral treatment in Africa. The responses in two important outcomes are studied: (1) labor supply of adult AIDS patients receiving treatment; and (2) labor supply of children and adults living in the patients’ households. We find that within six months after the initiation of treatment, there is a 20 percent increase in the likelihood of the patient participating in the labor force and a 35 percent increase in weekly hours worked. These results indicate that the labor supply response to treatment is both rapid and large. Since patient health would continue to decline without treatment, these labor supply responses are underestimates of the impact of treatment on the treated. The upper bound of the treatment impact, which is based on plausible assumptions about the counterfactual, is considerably larger and also implies that the wage benefit from treatment is roughly equal to the costs of treatment provision. The responses in the labor supply of patients’ household members are heterogeneous. Young boys work considerably less after initiation of treatment, while girls and other adults in the household do not change their labor supply. In multiple-patient households, only the labor supply of girls remains unaffected. The effects on child labor are particularly important since they suggest significant spillover effects from individual treatment. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Livelihood Strategies in the Rural Kenyan Highlands December 2006 Brown, Douglas R., Emma C. Stephens, James Okuro Ouma, Festus M. Murithi and Christopher B. Barrett The concept of a livelihood strategy has become central to development practice in recent years. Nonetheless, precise identification of livelihoods in quantitative data has remained methodologically elusive. This paper uses cluster analysis methods to operationalize the concept of livelihood strategies in household data and then uses the resulting strategy-specific income distributions to test whether hypothesized outcome differences between livelihoods indeed exist. Using data from Kenya’s central and western highlands, we identify five distinct livelihood strategies that exhibit statistically significant differences in mean per capita incomes and stochastic dominance orderings that establish clear welfare rankings among livelihood strategies. Multinomial regression analysis identifies geographic, demographic and financial determinants of livelihood choice. The results should facilitate targeting of interventions designed to improve household livelihoods. In the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1(1):21-35 Beyond Group Ranch Subdivision: Collective Action for Livestock Mobility, Ecological Viability and Livelihoods June 2006 BurnSilver, S. and E. Mwangi Pastoralism is the dominant land use in 25% of the world’s landscapes and comprises the basic subsistence strategy of 20 million households (Galaty and Johnson 1990). These rangeland ecosystems largely occur in regions too dry for rainfed agriculture, and are characterized by recurrent drought and strong intra- and inter-seasonal variability in climate (Ellis and Galvin 1994, Galvin et al. 2001). Historically, the primary pastoral response to minimize risk has been mobility. Opportunistic and extensive seasonal livestock movements provided access to water and forage resources that were heterogeneous (i.e., patchy) in space and time. This mobility occurred largely in the context of communal land tenure systems – wherein flexible use rights were negotiated through layered memberships in kinship, clan, and lineage groupings (Bekure et al. 1991, Lane and Moorehead 1994, Turner 1999). Recent developments in ecological and common property theories clearly support the logic of pastoral mobility to compensate for resource heterogeneity (Ellis and Swift 1988, Ostrom et al. 1999, Illius and O’Connor 2000). However, over the past three decades, a combination of government policy and internal drivers has pushed pastoral systems in the opposite direction, towards privatization of communal rangelands characterized by little flexibility (Galaty 1992, Niamir-Fuller 1999, Blench 2001). Many scientists are concerned this transition from mobile systems to continuous grazing of private parcels will lead to ecological degradation and spiraling poverty among pastoral households, and a gradual decrease in both system stability and sustainability (Ellis et al. 2001, Agrawal 2002, Reid et al. 2003, Boone and Hobbs 2004) Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Is Settling Good for Pastoralists? The Effects of Pastoral Sedentarization on Children’s Nutrition, Growth, and Health Among Rendille and Ariaal of Marsabit District, Northern Kenya June 2006 Fratkin, Elliot, Martha A. Nathan, and Eric A. Roth The settling of formerly mobile pastoral populations is occurring rapidly throughout East Africa. Pastoral sedentarization has been encouraged by international development agencies and national governments to alleviate problems of food insecurity, health care delivery, and national integration. However, it has not been demonstrated that abandoning the pastoral way of life, and particularly access to livestock products, has been beneficial to the health and well-being of pastoral populations. This paper reports the results of a three-year study of pastoral and settled Rendille and Ariaal (mixed Samburu/Rendille) communities in Marsabit District northern Kenya, which compares levels of child malnutrition and illness between five different Rendille communities, ranging from purely pastoral to agricultural and urban communities. Analysis of bimonthly dietary recalls, anthropometric measurements, morbidity data, and economic differentiation and specialization among 202 mothers and their 488 children under age 9 reveals large differences in the growth patterns and morbidity of nomadic vs. settled children. In particular, age-specific height and weight measurements for the nomadic pastoral community are significantly higher than same-aged measurements of children from the sedentary villages. Furthermore, women and especially pregnant women showed higher levels of malnutrition in the settled communities. Both women and children showed higher rates of respiratory and diarrheal morbidity in settled versus nomadic communities, although malaria rates were uniformly higher in lowland communities than in the highlands. Differences in child growth are attributed mainly to better nutrition, and particularly access to camel’s milk within the nomadic communities. The striking decrease in diarrheal and respiratory diseases for the nomadic children vs. settled children coupled with the findings of a relative decrease in malnutrition and stunting indicate an unexpected edge for health and growth of nomadic Rendille children. The policy implications of our findings are significant. Although pastoralism is not an option for everyone living in dry regions like northern Kenya, the decrease in diarrheal and respiratory illness and for pastoralist children, and the higher levels of stunting in settled children from pastoral populations, should be part of decisions affecting social, economic, and health policy for pastoral regions. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Land Privatization on Samburu Pastoralist Livelihood Strategies: 2000-2005 June 2006 Lesorogol, Carolyn K. Extensive pastoralism as practiced by East African pastoralists such as the Samburu of Northern Kenya, is premised on access to relatively large tracts of rangeland. Most pastoral land has been communally managed by groups of pastoralists who have, over time, developed rules and norms for regulating access to and use of the resources. In recent years, however, a number of pastoral groups have begun to privatize land, raising questions about the implications of this shift for pastoral livelihoods and the future of commonly held rangelands themselves (Ensminger and Rutten 1991, Rutten 1992, Kimani and Pickard 1998). The “new thinking” about pastoralism, which emerged during the 1990s, suggests that maintaining pastoralists’ mobility is critical to enabling them to remain successful herders (Behnke et.al. 1993, Scoones 1994, McCabe 2004). Accordingly, privatization of pastoral lands and the trend toward increasing sedentarization of pastoralists, appears to be a threat to the continued viability of pastoral production and livelihoods (Fratkin and Roth 2005). However, there is little empirical data demonstrating the effect of a shift from communal to private rangeland on household well-being or economic survival strategies. More information is needed to determine the effects of privatization on livestock production and livelihood strategies of pastoral households. This paper presents findings from an ongoing research project inquiring into these questions. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Women’s Groups in Arid Northern Kenya: Origins, Governance, and Roles in Poverty Reduction June 2006 Coppock, D. Layne, Solomon Desta, Adan Wako, Ibrahim Aden, Getachew Gebru, Seyoum Tezera, and Chachu Tadecha Collective action can be effective means of local development and risk reduction among rural people, but few examples have been documented in pastoral rangeland areas. We conducted extensive qualitative interviews for 16 women’s groups residing in settlements in northern Kenya during early 2005. Our objectives were to understand how groups were formed and governed and what activities they have pursued. Other questions included to what extent such groups can mitigate drought crises and reduce poverty for their members, and what most threatens group sustainability. At the time of interviews, our groups had existed for an average of 10 years, with two being 18-19 years old. Charter memberships averaged about 24 women, 20 of whom were typically illiterate. Half of the groups had been formed after facilitation by a GO or NGO partner and half formed spontaneously. Groups are governed under detailed constitutional frameworks outlining rights and responsibilities of members. All groups have eventually been registered with the Kenya government. Chairladies of the groups are typically elected to two-year terms. Group applicants and candidates for office are carefully screened. Groups primarily form to improve living standards of the members. Groups undertake a wide variety of social and economic activities founded on savings and credit schemes, income diversification, small business development, and expansion of education, health service, and natural resource management functions. The livestock and non-livestock economies become intermixed—commercialized livestock activities provide capital for small business ventures as well as the reverse. Groups have taken an active role in mitigating drought impacts on their members and the scope of drought mitigation appears to expand as groups mature over time. Interview respondents gave many examples of group members that have lifted themselves up from destitution. Relatively few of the groups we interviewed have experienced abject failure, but many have struggled. The greatest threats to the sustainability of these women’s groups come from external factors such as drought, resource scarcity, poverty, and political incitement as well as internal factors such as unfavorable group dynamics and illiteracy. Principles of good group governance and wisdom in business creation and management were repeatedly stated by respondents as the key ingredients for long-term success; making linkages to external development partners is also vital to secure access to technology and small grants. Groups have ambitious plans to further improve their social and economic circumstances; evidence is shown that rates of group formation in the region appear to be increasing. In a highly risky and poverty-stricken environment such as northern Kenya, such groups help create relatively deep pools of social, human, and diversified economic capital. Many of these processes fill large gaps in public service delivery and should be encouraged by policy makers. At the micro-level groups and their GO and NGO facilitators need continued support to strengthen groups. At a macro-level, investments that lead to broader economic development and greater access to formal education in the rangelands may permit further proliferation of sustainable efforts towards collective action. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Influencing and Developing Good Policy in Early Childhood Development (ECD) amongst Pastoralist Communities in East Africa: The Case of Samburu in Kenya June 2006 van de Linde, Tanja What do we mean by a good ECD policy and are there special elements that are particularly relevant to children from pastoralist societies? Let’s start by a quick deconstruction of ECD: early childhood and development. By early childhood we mean the period of a child’s life, starting at conception and including the first years of primary school usually up to age eight. We look at child development holistically, meaning physical, social, intellectual, language, cultural and emotional development. A working definition of “good” or “quality” ECD is “one that meets the developmental and cultural needs of young children and their families in ways that enable them to thrive”. (Bernard van Leer Foundation). It can also be defined as that program which does not alienate the developing young generation but prepares them to fit into their society. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Livelihood Choices and Returns among Agro-Pastoralists in Southern Kenya June 2006 Radeny, M., D. Nkedianye, P. Kristjanson, and M. Herrero This article addresses livelihood choices and income diversification strategies among agro-pastoralists and pastoralists in southern Kenya, and the factors influencing the returns to the diverse livelihood strategies being pursued. We explore how variability in income and wealth levels across households can be explained by household-level versus geographic factors. We find that household livestock asset levels, education level, landholdings, and diversification of household income sources can largely explain how well households are doing. Geographic factors such as distance to the nearest town, permanent water source, and Nairobi National Park, as well as pasture potential also matter in some cases, but relatively little compared to household-level factors. Investments in livestock remain key to how well households are doing and in some cases appear to be driving livelihood diversification strategies that keep them from falling into poverty. While relatively few households are yet receiving wildlife conservation-related income, for those that are, it is a more lucrative option than cropping, from which very few are earning positive returns. This information can contribute to more evidence-based decision making occurring across pastoral areas and inform policy decisions regarding conservation of wildlife and poverty reduction strategies. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Pastoralists Preferences for Cattle Traits: Letting Them Be Heard June 2006 Ouma, Emily, Awudu Abdulai and Adam Drucker This paper investigates preferences for cattle traits among a pastoral community in a trypanosomosis prevalent area in Kenya. Choice experiments and mixed logit models are employed to estimate economic values of preferred traits which could be introduced through systematic breeding in breed improvement programs that utilise trypanotolerance trait. The findings suggest preference for traits linked to drought tolerance, high live weight, trypanotolerance and fecundity. Identification and estimation of preferred traits provides useful information for breeding policy and provides a framework for promoting conservation of breeds that possess adaptability traits, critical for arid and semi-arid areas. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Cattle Breeding Strategies using Genetic Markers as a Pathway for Improving Competitiveness of Pastoral Systems in Kenya June 2006 Janssen-Tapken, Ulrike, Haja N. Kadarmideen and Peter von Rohr Pastoralists in Kenya have increasingly become less food secure and vulnerable to poverty over the last two decades. This is due to increasing human population and changes in land tenure system as well as the harsh agro-climatic conditions associated with their environments. (Rushton, et al., 2002, Wollny, 2003) Livestock keeping is the mainstay of the pastoral systems and 15 million livestock keepers in rangeland-based systems in Sub-Saharan Africa are poor according to the national poverty rate (Thornton, et al., 2003). The enterprise is beset by several constraints, one of the most important of which is livestock diseases, particularly endemic diseases transmitted by vectors such as ticks and tsetse flies (Rushton, et al., 2002). Resistance against trypanocides for controlling tsetse-transmitted trypanosomiasis becomes increasingly a problem (Geerts, et al., 2001, Sinyangwe, et al., 2004). Owing to the strong attachment to livestock by the pastoral communities, any poverty alleviation goal targeted at pastoral communities will have to focus on strategies to improve livestock productivity by minimizing some of the livestock enterprise constraints. One of the issues that this paper focuses on is the breeding strategies as a pathway to minimize cattle disease constraints, especially trypanosomosis, which is ranked among the top ten global cattle diseases impacting on the poor in pastoral systems (Thornton, et al., 2002) As will be shown, our strategy is to develop cattle breeding schemes to ensure genetic gain through selection programs that utilize identified trypanotolerant genotypes, using conventional genetic evaluation techniques with or without the use of genetic (DNA) markers for trypanotolerance. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Conflict Minimizing Strategies on Natural Resource Management and Use: The Case for Managing and Coping with Conflicts between Wildlife and Agropastoral Production Resources in Transmara District, Kenya June 2006 Nyamwaro, S.O., G.A. Murilla, M.O.K. Mochabo and K.B. Wanjala It is now well known that a large proportion (up to 90%) of the wildlife population is not contained within the designated areas (the national parks and game reserves) in Kenya. The wildlife thus coexists and interacts with humans and livestock. Research was initiated in Transmara district of Kenya to identify and document factors contributing to competition for and conflicts over management and use of wildlife interactions with agro-pastoral production resources. The research was aimed at finding out: (a) causes leading to competition for and conflicts over multiple land uses, (b) whether the policy on Wildlife Compensation Schemes* is necessary and sufficient, (c) extent of losses incurred and benefits received by local communities due to wildlife interactions, and (d) how the conflicts are managed. Informal and formal socioeconomic surveys were undertaken to collect both secondary and primary information on perceptions of communities about the stated issues. About 97% of the respondents indicated that wildlife is the major cause of conflicts affecting local human communities. Elephants, baboons and leopards were the most destructive and dreadful wild animals. Losses that were incurred by the local communities in the past one year were in the form of human deaths (9%) and injuries (7%), cattle deaths (35%) and injuries (15%), and sheep and goats’ deaths (80%) and injuries (23%). The most affected gender groups were the school-going children (56%) and male adults (21%). Some of the local people (32%) indicated that they used to receive indirect benefits in terms of social amenities that are no longer being received. Most respondents (65%) pointed to a unanimous view that wild animals provided little benefits but destruction to people. Majority of the respondents (72%) appeared to be aware that Wildlife Compensation Schemes were in existence but on the other hand most of them (73%) did not necessarily know why the schemes are there for or how they operated. The most cited solutions to minimize and manage such conflicts were putting up a perimeter fence around Mara National Game Reserve, getting rid of wildlife using every means possible, and increasing and expanding wildlife compensation rates. Respondents also proposed that equitable sharing of earnings from wildlife resources be initiated and implemented in an acceptable and amicable manner. The respondents further suggested that for the new proposals to be actualized they should be incorporated into a reviewed broad-based wildlife policy. This would go a long way in contributing to poverty alleviation for the Maasai pastoralists and agropastolarists. *Compensation Schemes are Acts of Parliament first enacted in 1976 and amended in 1989 stating the rules, regulations and procedures of getting compensated either in monetary terms or in kind by the government when land owners and their livestock are killed or injured and their properties destroyed. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Maasai Pastoralists: Diversification and Poverty June 2006 Homewood, K., E. Coast, S. Kiruswa, S. Serneels, M. Thompson, and P. Trench Sub-Saharan African pastoralism involves highly fluid production systems responding flexibly to variable and unpredictable arid and semi arid rangeland environments. Household wealth is typically subject to stochastic events and most pastoralist groups have a history of entire families shifting in and out of the system as their fortunes have changed. This potential to re-enter the system has been maintained by the often communal nature of land tenure in pastoral societies, alongside the potential to restock through raiding, trading (including wild resources), or cultivation. However, the last hundred years have seen a drastic decline in the commons available for extensive pastoralism. Large areas of land have been given over to alternative uses as pastoral populations have become marginalized within most African nation states. Extensive land loss to conservation and rapid piecemeal privatisation of formerly communal rangelands for agriculture and ranching enterprises are framed within an environmental discourse that invokes Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons to justify land alienation and subdivision. This process has entailed the loss of access to key dry season land and water resources. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Contextualising Conflict: Introduced Institutions and Political Networks Combating Pastoral Poverty June 2006 Zaal, Fred and Morgan Ole Siloma Poverty and conflict both bring to mind images of destitution. Conflict causes destruction, destitution and disruption of society. The resources to which people have access are damaged to the degree that livelihoods are threatened and poverty is increased. Poverty may also lead to conflict as righteous claims on resources are not met (Verstegen 2001) and scarce resources are competed about (Homer-Dixon 1999). However, this last relationship may be a simplification, as there are many other causes for conflict that hide behind this simple explanation. For example, it may be that not the poor among themselves compete for scarce resources, but that parties previously not involved start to compete with the local poor. The poor may not even have the resources to start a conflict, but rather the well off who through a lack of political, social and cultural mechanisms for control, compete freely for access to resources. As conflict-resolution mechanisms are likely to be absent in those cases, there is very little likelihood of conflicts being moderated once they break out unhindered. In fact, conflicts may be the unavoidable outcome in any society where processes of resource access and distribution are not handled through established political institutions and their controlling elites (Verstegen 2001). Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. An Ordered Tobit of Market Participation: Evidence from Kenya and Ethiopia May 2006 Bellemare, Marc F. and Barrett, Christopher B. Do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume decisions simultaneously or sequentially? This article develops a two-stage econometric model that allows testing between these two competing hypotheses regarding household-level market behavior. The first stage models the household’s choice of whether to be a net buyer, autarkic, or a net seller in the market. The second stage models the quantity bought (sold) for net buyers (sellers) based on observable household characteristics. Using household data from Kenya and Ethiopia on livestock markets, we find evidence in favor of sequential decision-making, the welfare implications of which we discuss. In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2):324-337, May, 2006 Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar February 2006 Barrett, Christopher B., Paswel Phiri Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo and Justine Wangila This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household’s asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households' defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 248-277, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Decentralization and Access to Agricultural Extension Services in Kenya October 2005 Nambiro, Elizabeth, John Omiti, and Lawrence Mugunieri The form and content of decentralization has dominated development discourse and public sector reform agenda in Kenya in the last two decades. The case of agricultural extension service presents decentralization in a difficult context partly due to lack of information on its possible diverse impacts especially on resource poor farmers. This paper explores the effect of decentralization of agricultural extension on access, accountability and empowerment, and efficiency of delivering services to farmers. Secondary data, participatory research methods and primary data from a random sample of 250 farmers were used. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariate analysis and logistic regression. The results show that there is improved access to extension services with increasing level of decentralization. Farmers from areas with higher decentralized extension also showed enhanced level of awareness of different channels for delivery of extension services. This improved knowledge, being an important component of empowerment of the farming community, resulted from the increase of service providers, who displayed synergy in their multiple methods of operation. Public delivery channels were the most affordable and were also ranked first for quality. Income, literacy levels, distance from towns and access to telephone significantly influenced access to extension services. Gender of the household-head was a key determinant for seeking out extension services in areas with high concentration of agricultural activities. For a pluralistic system to work, there is need to for better co-ordination between the various groups. Although there is evidence of partnership and synergy between service providers, there appeared to be little effective co-ordination of the groups involved. The government, and other stakeholders should work towards developing a strong institutional framework that will guide and enhance this mutually beneficial partnership. Social Exclusion and Insurance Failure for the Poorest: On Informal Finance through Social Networks in Kenya’s Smallholder Sector April 2005 Heidi Hogset This study looks at informal finance through social networks among smallholder farmers in Kenya. This paper explores the patterns of economic transfers within networks, and characterizes recipients and providers of informal credit and insurance, as well as the relationship between them and the purposes such transfers serve. Participation in transfer networks depends on one’s resources. The poor engage in frequent, low-value transfers in kind and in exchange labor. The poorest do not engage in cash transfers. Those of intermediate wealth engage more actively in transfers in kind, but not cash. The rich (or non-poor) are also active in transfer networks, and it is they who are able to raise large cash amounts through social networks, either as loans or gifts. As people get wealthier, they engage more in cash transfers and less in transfers in kind. People who have access to formal financial services, i.e., formal banks or Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) participate less in transfers through networks. Those who are able to save in banks are less vulnerable to shocks. Women are more active than men in Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (ROSCAs), and they also engage more frequently in bilateral transactions within networks, especially for transfers in kind. Transfer networks are correctly perceived as kinship-based and family members are important sources of unearned income (remittances). Transfers through networks are important for consumption smoothing, in addition to investments in income-generating activities and payment of school fees, but not for assistance when a household member is seriously ill. The failure of social networks to provide support during sickness and death is particularly disturbing viewed in light of the ongoing AIDS crisis which is keenly felt in the villages where the study took place. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Poverty Traps and Safety Nets April 2005 Barrett, Christopher B. and John G. McPeak This paper uses data from northern Kenya to argue that the concept of poverty traps needs to be taken seriously, and that if poverty traps indeed exist, then safety nets become all the more important. However, as presently practiced, safety nets based on food aid appear to be failing in northern Kenya. In Poverty, Inequality and Development: Essays in Honor of Erik Thorbecke, Alain de Janvry and Ravi Kanbur, eds., Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2005 Decomposing Producer Price Risk: A Policy Analysis Tool With An Application to Northern Kenyan Livestock Markets August 2004 Barrett, Christopher B., and Winnie K. Luseno This paper introduces a simple method of price risk decomposition that determines the extent to which producer price risk is attributable to volatile inter-market margins, intra-day variation, intra-week (day of week) variation, or terminal market price variability. We apply the method to livestock markets in northern Kenya, a setting of dramatic price volatility where price stabilization is a live policy issue. In this particular application, we find that large, variable inter-market basis is the most important factor in explaining producer price risk in animals typically traded between markets. Local market conditions explain most price risk in other markets, in which traded animals rarely exit the region. Variability in terminal market prices accounts for relatively little price risk faced by pastoralists in the dry lands of northern Kenya although this is the focus of most present policy prescriptions under discussion. In Food Policy 29(4):393-405 Food Aid Targeting, Shocks and Private Transfers Among East African Pastoralists July 2005 Lentz, Erin and Christopher B. Barrett Public transfers of food aid are intended largely to support vulnerable populations in times of stress. We use high frequency panel data among Ethiopian and Kenyan pastoralists to test the efficacy of food aid targeting under three different targeting modalities, food aid’s responsiveness to different types of covariate shocks, and its relationship to private transfers. We find that, in this region, self-targeting food-for-work or indicatortargeted free food distribution more effectively reach the poor than do food aid distributed according to community-based targeting. Food aid flows do not respond significantly to either covariate, community-level income or asset shocks. Rather, food aid flows appear to respond mainly to more readily observable rainfall measures. Finally, food aid does not appear to affect private transfers in any meaningful way, either by crowding out private gifts to recipient households nor by stimulating increased gifts by food aid recipients. Smallholder Identities and Social Networks: The Challenge of Improving Productivity and Welfare April 2004 Barrett, Christopher B. This paper proposes a general framework for resolving the puzzle of how to reconcile the mass of recent evidence on the salutary effects of social capital at the individual level with the casual, larger-scale observation that social embeddedness appears negatively correlated with productivity and material measures of welfare. It advances an analytical framework that not only explains individual productivity or technology adoption behavior as a function of the characteristics or behaviors of others, but that also explains the aggregate properties of social systems characterized by persistently low productivity. Examples from Kenya and Madagascar are used to illustrate the phenomena discussed. In The Social Economics of Poverty: Identities, Groups, Communities and Networks, Christopher B. Barrett, editor, London: Routledge, 2005. Mixing Qualitative and Quantitative Methods of Analyzing Poverty Dynamics March 2004 Barrett, Christopher B. This paper outlines my current thinking and recent experience in mixing qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis so as to gain a firmer and more useful understanding of poverty dynamics, especially in rural Kenya. We first explore the very real differences between qualitative and quantitive poverty analysis methods, differences that make them useful complements. Then we debunk a few myths about differences that do not really exist. Finally, I discuss key lessons learned from four multi-year research projects in Kenya that have tried to implement mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods with a range of researchers from animal science, anthropology, economics, geography, range science, sociology and soil science. In Quantitative and Qualitative Methods for Poverty Analysis: Proceedings of the Workshop Held on 11 March, 2004, Nairobi Kenya, Walter Odhiambo, John M. Omiti, and David I. Muthaka, editors, Nairobi, Kenya: Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) Quantitative Poverty Analysis March 2004 Germano Mwabu Poverty is a complex human phenomenon associated with unacceptably low standard of living. It has multiple dimensions, manifestations and causes (World Bank, 2000). Poverty analysts from a variety of disciplines have been constantly asking questions about this phenomenon, sometimes out of curiosity, but often with the aim of providing information that can be used to overcome it. Quantitative methods help provide answers to particular questions about poverty and, can only provide partial information about it. Needless to say, no single approach to poverty appraisal can capture all the essential aspects of poverty. Choice of methods of poverty analysis is dictated by issues of interest to a researcher and his research skills. Because of the complexity of the poverty phenomenon, researchers have come to appreciate the need to specialize in acquiring skills that are necessary for understanding only certain aspects of poverty, and consequently the need to concentrate their work on areas of poverty appraisal in which they have comparative advantage in skill endowments. As Barrett (2001) has correctly observed, the type of poverty appraisal that has been undertaken over the past decades has been subject-driven, and researcher-directed. This is of course no accident. The economic concept of comparative advantage suggests that there is much efficiency (in advancing knowledge about poverty) to be gained from specializing in certain approaches to poverty appraisal. Quantitative poverty analysis is a particular area of poverty research in which investigators with quantitative skills specialize. Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya Bridging the Qualitative-Quantitative Methods of Poverty Analysis March 2004 Enos H.N. Njeru Poverty is primarily a social problem. As such it requires meticulous definition, identification of constituent parameters and verifiable and measurable indicators. The constituent parameters should essentially single out the major causal factors. Knowledge of the latter, in effect, serves as good basis for identification of perceived solutions and methodologies to guide implementation of the proposed remedial strategies. Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya Poverty Mapping: The Case of Kenya March 2004 Anthony K.M. Kilele and Godfrey K. Ndeng’e Kenya like many other developing countries is currently refocusing its development policies towards poverty reduction. The emphasis on poverty reduction is primarily a response to the fact that, despite many efforts to improve the well being of the poor in the past, the majority of the people still live in poverty. Hence, finding ways to reduce poverty and inequality in Kenya is a huge challenge facing both local and national policy decision makers. Poverty is a multi-faceted problem and its levels tend to vary considerably over space. Thus, providing information on the spatial heterogeneity of poverty can greatly assist anyone trying to tackle the challenge of identifying who the poor are? Where they live? And what causes their poverty? Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya Social Aspects of Dynamic Poverty Traps: Cases from, Vihiga, Baringo and Marsabit Districts, Kenya March 2004 Nelson Mango, Josephat Cheng’ole, Gatarwa Kariuki and Wesley Ongadi This paper draws on qualitative research on Social Aspects of Dynamic Poverty Traps conducted in Vihiga, Baringo and Marsabit districts, Kenya. Using qualitative research techniques such as case study approach and community workshops, the paper explores the strategies that have been used by certain households to move out of poverty in the past ten to twenty years and reasons for descent into poverty by some households in the same period. Findings from this study indicate that poverty is not only an outcome of economic processes, but also an outcome of political, environmental and social processes that interact with each other and frequently reinforce each other in ways that exacerbates the deprivation of the environmental situation in which people live. The case studies presented in this report give people’s description of what living in poverty means and bears eloquent testimony to their pain. While it is tempting to think that for those who live in poverty escaping from it may seem impossible, findings from this study show that it is not. The case study materials presented in this paper indicate that poor people are not passive to their predicament but have time testesd coping and survival strategies and institutions that can even enable some of them to escape from poverty. Such strategies and institutions can be integrated into innovative poverty reduction programs because they present enormous potential for bottom-up approaches to poverty alleviation. Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya Indices and Manifestations of Poverty: Informing Anti-Poverty Policy Choices March 2004 Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Paswel P. Marenya, Frank Place and Christopher B. Barrett Kenya has entered the 21st century with over 50% of its population classified as absolutely poor in that they live on less than a dollar a day. Per capita income is lower than at the end of the 1960’s. Income, assets, and access to essential services are unequally distributed. The country has made important economic reforms, improving macroeconomic management, liberalizing markets and trade, and widening the scope for private sector activity in the hope of improving economic growth and welfare for Kenyans. Yet, despite these reforms the country has experienced little growth and poverty continues to afflict an ever-larger segment of its citizenry, especially in rural areas. Presented at the KIPPRA-Cornell-SAGA Workshop on "Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Poverty Analysis," March 11, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya RETURN TO MAIN PUBLICATIONS BY GEOGRAPHY PAGE

HOME | RESEARCH | PUBLICATIONS | TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE | CONFERENCES | GRANTS | PARTNERS | PROJECT PERSONNEL | PROGRESS REPORTS | LINKS | CONTACT US | SEARCH