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SAGA PUBLICATIONS Included here are Working Papers and Conference Papers. Publications on this page are organized by geographical focus: RETURN TO MAIN PUBLICATIONS BY GEOGRAPHY PAGE OTHER COUNTRIES/REGIONS Persistent Poverty and Informal Credit November 2008 Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett This paper explores the consequences of nonlinear wealth dynamics for the formation of bilateral credit arrangements to help manage idiosyncratic risk. Building on recent empirical work that finds evidence consistent with the hypothesis of multiple equilibrium poverty traps, and using original primary data on expected wealth dynamics, social networks and informal loans among southern Ethiopian pastoralist households, we find that the threshold at which wealth dynamics bifurcate serves as a focal point at which lending is concentrated. Informal lending responds to recipients’ losses but only so long as the recipients are not “too poor”. Our results suggest that when shocks can have long term effects, loans are not scale-neutral. Furthermore,the persistently poor are excluded from social networks that are necessary to obtain loans given in response to shocks. Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex: Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries January 2008 Glick, Peter and David E. Sahn We use repeated rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from eight African countries to examine changes in and determinants of three HIV risk behaviors: age at first intercourse; number of current sexual partners, and use of condoms. As a prelude, we assess the within- country comparability of DHS surveys over time. We find some evidence of changes in sample composition, which is easily handled in a multivariate framework, and find evidence as well of changes in how people respond to questions about HIV behavior. Because of the latter, which likely represents an increase in social desirability bias over time, our estimates of risk reduction may be upper bounds on the true effects. Overall the picture is one of reductions in risk behaviors over recent 4-6 year intervals, especially with respect to condom use; in some cases the changes seem large given the short time periods involved. With some exceptions, however, the extent and pervasiveness of these changes seems inadequate in relation to the urgency of the public health crisis represented by AIDS. With respect to the determinants of behaviors, schooling and wealth have contradictory impacts on risk behavior: they both tend to increase the likelihood of using condoms while (for men) also increasing the demand for additional sexual partners. Presented at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Seminar on “Interactions between Poverty and HIV/AIDS,” Cape Town, South Africa, December 2005. Alternate version in Economic Development and Cultural Change 56(2):397-439, January, 2008 Heterogeneous Impacts of Cooperatives on Smallholders’ Commercialization Behavior: Evidence from Ethiopia May 2007 Tanguy, Bernard, Eleni Gabre-Madhin and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse This paper examines the impact of marketing cooperatives on smallholder commercialization of cereals using detailed household data in rural Ethiopia. We use the strong government role in promoting the establishment of cooperatives to justify the use of propensity score matching in order to compare households that are cooperative members to similar households in comparable areas without cooperatives. The analysis reveals that while cooperatives obtain higher prices for their members, they are not associated with a significant increase in the overall share of surplus cereal production sold commercially by their members. However, these average results hide considerable heterogeneity in the impact across households. In particular, we find smaller farmers tend reduce their marketable surplus as a result of higher prices, while the opposite is true for larger farmers. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Malaria in Rural Nigeria: Implications for the Millennium Development Goals May 2007 Alaba, Olufunke A. and Olumuyiwa B. Alaba In recent years, there has been increase in human and financial commitments to malaria control, nationally and internationally, partly due to the need to meet the development targets set in the millennium development goals (MDGs). However, these efforts have not translated into significant decrease in the disease incidence and its impact in Nigeria. Using the cost of illness analysis, the paper found that an estimate of about 10% of gross domestic output of Oyo state is lost annually to malaria attack. This has serious implications for the achievement of development blueprint in the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategies (NEEDS) and the MDG target. Effective control of malaria is capable of reducing household poverty, inequality, welfare and aggregate national development. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya HIV/AIDS and Rural Livelihoods in Zambia: A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis May 2007 Mason, Nicole M., Antony Chapoto, Thomas S. Jayne and Robert J. Myers The ‘new variant famine’ (NVF) hypothesis postulates that the HIV/AIDS pandemic is eroding rural livelihoods and making rural households more vulnerable to drought and other transitory shocks. Despite limited empirical evidence, the NVF hypothesis has become an important part of the conventional wisdom surrounding the relationship between HIV/AIDS and food crises in southern Africa. This study provides a new empirical test of the NVF hypothesis via econometric estimation of the relationship between AIDS-related morbidity and mortality and indicators of rural livelihoods. District longitudinal data from smallholder farmers in Zambia surveyed annually between 1991 and 2003 are used to estimate several econometric models in order to: (1) understand the effects of HIV/AIDS on rural farm production; (2) measure whether HIV/AIDS exacerbates the impacts of drought and other factors affecting rural farm production; and (3) determine whether these results are consistent with the predictions of the NVF hypothesis. We find little evidence of a systematic decline in rural livelihoods at the national or provincial level as measured by mean household agricultural production, area cultivated, or the value of production per unit of land. Furthermore, contrary to a priori expectations, we do not find evidence of a robust negative direct effect of HIV/AIDS on any of these three agricultural production outcomes. We do find some evidence that HIV/AIDS may have negative indirect effects on rural farm production by exacerbating the impacts of drought, gender inequalities and agricultural sector policy changes related to structural adjustment. This final finding is consistent with the predictions of the NVF hypothesis. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Nutrition, Health and Productivity in Urban Ethiopia: Panel Evidence using Instrumental Variables (IV) Quantile Regression Framework March 2007 Kedir, Abbi M. Using the panel data (1994-2000) on individuals who reported their wages in urban Ethiopia, we have estimated a relationship between health measures (i.e. height and BMI) and wages (which proxies productivity). Our preliminary findings from the IV quantile regression estimates (which controls for the endogeneity) indicates that productivity of individuals is significantly and positively affected by both human capital measures. The returns to BMI or current bodily strength is important at the lower end of the wage distribution. The return to height (a measure of long term nutrition investment) also falls starting from the 75th wage quintile. Our estimates are robust to specification. The substantive content of the results (i.e. the high-nutrition and high-productivity equilibrium story) does not change even if we did not control for endogeneity of schooling. Non-parametric evidence also supports the strong and positive relationship between productivity and the two key indicators of human capital. There are surprising findings such as the lack of statistically significant link between schooling and wage. This will further be investigated along with other empirical issues such as outliers. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Can Information Campaigns Eradicate AIDS? The Effect of HIV Knowledge and Risk Behavior on HIV Status: The Case of Three Sub-Saharan Countries February 2007 Frölich, Markus and Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez AIDS continues to have a devastating effect on many developing economies, par- ticularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the lack of a vaccine to stop HIV transmission and the very expensive medical treatment, most public policy emphasis has been placed on edu- cation and particular information campaigns. In this paper, we examine the impact of AIDS education from two sides. First, we examine to what extent information campaigns have been successful in reducing HIV prevalence and incidence. Second, we examine the impact of actual AIDS knowledge on HIV rates. The basic policy issue can be expressed as follows: Suppose that everyone knew and understood the basic facts about AIDS, would this reduce HIV rates to (almost) zero? If so, public policy should target groups with incomplete knowledge. If not, information campaigns alone are bound to fail and much stronger interventions are required to eradicate AIDS. Using rich data sets from three Sub-Saharan economies (Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia) we investigate the effect of observed HIV related knowledge on the probability of catching the virus using data on individuals. Our analysis controls for detailed individual specific characteristics including variables reflecting innate risk behaviour that may drive the risk of becoming HIV positive irrespective of HIV related health knowledge. We examine fur- ther how these effects differ between different groups, thereby identifying target groups that public information campaigns should direct more attention to. Results so far are preliminary. Prepared for the AERC-Cornell Conference on “Bottom-Up Interventions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 31-June 1, 2007, Nairobi, Kenya Why Has Burundi Grown So Slowly? The Political Economy of Redistribution June 2005 Janvier D. Nkurunziza and Floribert Ngaruko This study analyses Burundi’s economic performance over the period 1960-2000 and finds that it has been catastrophic. The usual economic factors determining growth are endogenous to political objectives, suggesting that politics explains the dismal performance. This finding limits the relevance of textbook models of growth relying on the assumption of a competitive resource allocation environment. When cronies rather than qualified managers are running the economy, when priority is given to investment projects in function of their location rather than the objective needs of the economy, economic models lose their explanatory power. Economic performance has been shaped by the occurrence of violent conflicts caused by factions fighting for the control of the state and its rents. The capture of rents by a small group has become the overarching objective of the governments that have ruled the country since the mid-1960s. In this regard, economic performance will not improve unless the political system is modernised from a dictatorial regime playing a zero-sum game to a more democratic and accountable regime. It would be naïve to advocate economic reforms as a way of boosting the country’s economy if they are not preceded or at least accompanied by political reforms. One central message of this study is that Burundi’s growth failure is the result of specific identifiable factors evolving around governance. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with Burundi: Development failure may be reversed if the problems identified in this study are properly addressed. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana The role of local organizations in risk management: Some evidence from rural Chad July 2005 Katinka Weinberger and Johannes P. Jütting This paper analyses the role of local organizations in Southern Chad in helping poor people to deal with risk. Different categories of risks are identified and set into relation to response strategies at the community level. Membership in local organizations is mainly motivated by the desire to reduce the occurrence of risks, however the actual impact of membership is risk mitigation. Using regression analysis we establish that while local organizations help people to mitigate risks via access to information, saving and credit and social networks, a “middle class effect” of participation materializes. The exclusion of the poorest parts of the population should seriously be taken into account when donors set up or support local organizations. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability June 2006 Santos, Paulo and Christopher B. Barrett This paper studies the causal mechanisms behind poverty traps, building on evidence of nonlinear wealth dynamics among a poor pastoralist population, the Boran from southern Ethiopia. In particular, it explores the roles of adverse weather shocks and individual ability to cope with such shocks in conditioning wealth dynamics. Using original data, we establish pastoralists’ expectations of herd dynamics and show both that pastoralists perceive the nonlinear long-term dynamics that characterize livestock wealth in the region and that this pattern results from adverse weather shocks. We estimate a stochastic herd growth frontier that yields herder-specific estimates of unobservable ability on which we then condition our simulations of wealth dynamics. We find that those with lower ability converge to a unique dynamic equilibrium at a small herd size, while those with higher ability exhibit multiple stable dynamic wealth equilibria. Our results underscore the criticality of asset protection against exogenous shocks in order to facilitate wealth accumulation and economic growth and the importance of incorporating indicators of ability in the targeting of asset transfers, as we demonstrate with simulations of alternative asset transfer designs. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Livelihood Diversification in Borana Pastoral Communities of Ethiopia—Prospects and Challenges June 2006 Gemtessa, Kejela, Bezabih Emana, and Waktole Tiki This paper analyzes the livelihood of the Borana pastoral communities of Southern Oromiya in Ethiopia. The study employed Participatory Rural Appraisal and survey methods. Stakeholders’ consultations were carried out at community, district, and regional levels. The study shows that livestock mobility would continue to ensure high productivity due to changing environment, change water and feed sources, better pasture supply, etc. However, mobility is curtailed by combination of factors such as population growth and settlement in remote grazing areas, existence of claims by different ethnic groups on rangelands, the impartial impact of drought, increasing settlement to get social services, and the declining number of cattle holding per household. In both pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, the contribution of livestock and livestock products to the household's income is the highest for the rich and smallest for the poor owing to the size of livestock they hold. The destitute households have no livestock. Yet the number of poor households is increasing due to drought. The livelihood of the pastoralists diversified into crop production, petty trades, wage, remittance, firewood and charcoal production, and incense collection. The study revealed that the agro-pastoralists are poorer than the pure pastoral communities indicating that farming has been adopted to cope with food insecurity caused by declining livestock herd. But the income discrepancy between the social groups is significantly high. The rich could generate four folds of the income the poor earns. Finally, the researchers recommended that the need for mobility in the use of range resources in order to cope with the ecosystem vulnerability should be understood by the federal and regional governments. Appropriate land use planning for appropriate use of rangeland and delimiting cropland from rangeland is an essential intervention in a participatory manner. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Property Rights among Afar Pastoralists of Northeastern Ethiopia: Forms, Changes and Conflicts June 2006 Hundie, Bekele This study has been conducted in three districts in Afar of Northeastern Ethiopia. The objective is to (1) describe the traditional land use arrangements among pastoralists; (2) explain changes in pastoral customary rights; (2) explain resource-based conflicts among various pastoral groups. The results show that the state is the giant actor behind property right changes especially in areas with better resource endowments. The state-driven changes in customary rights have led to increasing conflicts between pastoralists and the state. It also created disparity among clan members in the level of resource use as it facilitated the exclusion of some clan members. In addition to the state, natural as well as socioeconomic challenges are important in explaining the current changes in land use arrangements. It is also evident that, conflicts nurtured by obscurely defined property rights are extensive among pastoral groups causing humanitarian crisis (especially of the active labor force), loss of assets (primarily livestock), underutilization of pastoral resources by creating “no go” areas, and underutilization of market opportunities. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Collective Action and Informal Institutions: The Case of Agropastoralists of Eastern Ethiopia June 2006 Beyene, Fekadu An increasing scarcity of water for crop farming and livestock watering among agropastoralists of Mieso in Eastern Ethiopia has largely disrupted their livelihoods. Indigenous water well maintenance and government initiated rainwater harvesting are two important collective actions common among these communities. With the aim of examining collective action institutions in both cases, we collected data from different stakeholders and individual members. Theoretically, low level of physical assets (action resource) limits participation of an individual in collective action. In our case, other factors such as environmental uncertainty and lower level of dependence on the resource have been found to be more significant in limiting membership than limitation of assets. Poor agropastoralists depend on their informal networks to have access to other assets. This enables them to maintain their membership. Moreover, there is a difference between self-organized and imposed collective action in terms of rule enforcement and sanctioning. Institutions also produce different incentives in that free riding leads to automatic exclusion in water harvesting, whereas poor members who continue free riding can benefit from the water well. In evaluating the success, we conclude that technical capacity of members in benefiting from their collective action is limited and deserves more attention than their ability to develop effective collective action institutions. Technical capacity development of user groups needs to be central in policy and programs addressing this. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. An Ordered Tobit of Market Participation: Evidence from Kenya and Ethiopia May 2006 Bellemare, Marc F. and Barrett, Christopher B. Do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume decisions simultaneously or sequentially? This article develops a two-stage econometric model that allows testing between these two competing hypotheses regarding household-level market behavior. The first stage models the household’s choice of whether to be a net buyer, autarkic, or a net seller in the market. The second stage models the quantity bought (sold) for net buyers (sellers) based on observable household characteristics. Using household data from Kenya and Ethiopia on livestock markets, we find evidence in favor of sequential decision-making, the welfare implications of which we discuss. In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2):324-337, May, 2006 ‘Moving in Place’: Drought and Poverty Dynamics in South Wollo, Ethiopia February 2006 Little, Peter D., Priscilla Stone, Tewodaj Mogues, Peter Castro, and Workneh Negatu This article discusses the impact of drought on poverty dynamics in the South Wollo area of northeastern Ethiopia. Using both survey and anthropological/qualitative data covering a six-year period, the paper assesses which households were able to hold on to assets and recover from the 1999-2000 drought and which were not. It suggests that while the incidence of poverty changed very little during 1997 to 2003 despite the occurrence of a major drought, the fortunes of the poorest improved, but not enough to keep them from poverty. The study concludes by asking how current policies affect patterns of poverty and inequality and what might be done to improve welfare in South Wollo. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2):200-225, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Analysis of farmers’ preferences for development intervention programs: A case study of subsistence farmers from Eastern Ethiopian Highlands. July 2005 Wagayehu Bekele The aim of this paper is to better understand farmers’ perception of the relevance of different development intervention programs. Farmers’ subjective ranking of agricultural problems and their preference for development intervention are elicited using a stated preference method. The factors influencing these preferences are determined using a random utility model. The study is based on a survey conducted in the Hunde-Lafto area of the Eastern Ethiopian Highlands. Individual interviews were conducted with 145 randomly selected farm households using semi-structured questionnaires. The study suggests that drought, soil erosion and, shortage of cultivable land are high priority agricultural production problems for farmers. Low market prices for farm products and high prices of purchased inputs also came out as major problems for the majority of farmers. Farmers’ preferences for development intervention fall into four major categories, market, irrigation, resettlement, and soil and water conservation. Multinomial logit analysis of the factors influencing these preferences revealed that farmer’s specific socio-economic circumstances, and subjective ranking of agricultural problems play a major role. It is also shown that preferences for some interventions are complimentary and need to be addressed simultaneously. Recognition and understanding of these factors, affecting the acceptability of development policies for micro level implementation, will have significant contribution to improve macro level policy formulation. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana In African Development Review, 18(2): 183-204, 2006. Socioeconomic Impact of Export Oriented Agricultural Production on Farmers, in Eastern Ethiopia July 2005 Adem Kedir This study was undertaken to assess the socio-economic impact of producing export oriented agricultural crops on the livelihoods of the farmers in eastern Ethiopia. A random sample of 305 farmers was studied. Comparisons were made between producers and non-producers using the Z-test and regression analysis. It was found that producers of export oriented crops are better off than the non-producers in terms of sending their children to school, housing conditions and ability to finance their families’ food requirements. The impact of father’s education, number of children and livestock ownership on the improvements in the livelihoods of the farmers and the problems facing the farmers were also emphasized. The implications of the findings for the policy makers were also pointed out. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Stochastic Technology and Crop Production Risk: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers in East Hararghe Zone of Oromiya Regional State in Ethiopia July 2005 Bekabil Fufa and R. M. Hassan This study used the Just and Pope stochastic production technology specification to analyse the crop production and supply response behaviour of farmers in East Hararghe zone of Ethiopia under production risk. The results showed that improved seed, human labour, oxen labour and planting date were the most important determinants of yield levels of the crops grown in the area. On the other hand, the use of improved seed and fertilizer were yield risk increasing inputs in the production of maize and sorghum crops. However, early planting for all the annual crops grown, use of human labour for the package crops and oxen labour for all food crops grown in Faddis district were found to have yield risk reducing effects. The results have important implications for agricultural technology development and transfer in the study area. To reduce the yield risk increasing effect of fertilizer, the development and promotion of new crop varieties should consider fertilizer application trails for different levels across different agro-ecologies and farmers’ conditions. Also, farmers need to be provided with adequate advice and information on the use and application of fertilizer. Moreover, to overcome the yield risk increasing effect of improved seed, varieties should be tested for their suitability to varying agro-ecologies and management conditions of the farmers in the area. Extension advice and information on the management of the improved crop varieties need to be provided to the farmers to improve the yield stability of the crops. In addition, extension advice on early planting, provision of meteorological information to farmers to aid them in planting date decisions and development of short period maturing varieties could help to reduce variability in the yield levels of crops grown in the area. Finally, improving the small-scale farmers’ access to oxen would also enable the farmers to achieve stable yields from crop production. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Risk and Asset Management in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Implications for Growth and Social Protection June 2005 Barrett, Christopher B. and Michael R. Carter This note suggests a behavioral approach to poverty and vulnerability that escapes the standard, troublesome dependence on an arbitrary money-metric poverty line. More importantly, our approach, which is based on an empirically estimable dynamic asset poverty threshold, has immediate implications for both the linkage between poverty, risk and growth and for the design of social protection policies. One can identify the dynamic asset poverty threshold either by testing for asset smoothing behavior or via tests for bifurcated/split accumulation dynamics. We illustrate the concept and the estimation of dynamic asset poverty thresholds through brief applications to Ethiopia and Honduras. An Inquiry into the role of personal wealth in the pastoralist - agropastoralist conflict resolution in Yerer and Daketa Valleys, Eastern Ethiopia May 2005 Ayalneh Bogale and Benedikt Korf Capitalizing on the mobility of livestock is one of the major ways in which pastoralists have managed ecological uncertainties and risks, as it enables them the opportunistic use of the resources. However, agricultural encroachment onto rangelands by nearby agro-pastoralists has led to a shortage in grazing area and threatened the mobility of the pastoralists. As this process leads to a significant disruption and weakening of the risk-management systems of pastoralists, they seek for various institutional arrangements with agropastoralists to enable them access to common grazing land. Based on an exploratory survey and data derived from interview of 146 households in eastern Ethiopia, this paper uses an adaptation of the sequential rationality game theoretical model and institutional analysis to discrete choice models. The analytical framework, in its entirety, presents a simple model of household and community level decision-making, in which they are concerned about their welfare along many different dimensions. Choice of institutional arrangement, namely no opinion, reciprocal, sharing milk and the right to use milk, is modelled using multinomial logit discrete choice procedure. The model chi-squared statistic is significant at the 1% level of probability. For all arrangements, there are three to five observable characteristics of household that provide statistically significant predictive power for practicing a given arrangement. The paper argues resource scarcity may enhance the bargaining position of asset-poor members of an agro-pastoral society and urges the wealthier agropastoralists to comply with a nonviolent resolution of competing claims towards a resource sharing arrangement. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Alleviating rural poverty through efficient small holders farming systems in Ethiopia: Relevance of macro policies with ground realities October 2004 D. K. Grover and Anteneh Temesgen Ethiopia is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world. The country had a real per capita GDP of less than US $100 in 1995, and over 60 per cent of its population lives in absolute poverty. The problem of rural poverty and underdeveloped agriculture are closely linked with both micro as well as macro dimensions. To tackle the challenges of poverty in Ethiopia, the policies need to be initiated both macro and micro in nature and especially the macro-micro linkages are extremely crucial. In order to formulate and implement the macro policies effectively, there is an urgent need to first understand the ground realities of the Ethiopian society in general and of agricultural economy in particular. The micro-level study has been conducted in North Wollo zone, situated in the northeastern part of the country. The linear programming model was used to study the existing farm income and scope of improvement through optimal and alternative plans. The optimal solutions in both base model and alternative optimal plan resulted in an increase in gross margin. This was obtained by using improved seed with fertilizer. Thus, the availability of improved seed, fertilizer, working capital and other inputs is crucial, i.e. modern inputs should be delivered at right time and place with a reasonable cost, so that all farmers can afford to use it. Agricultural and poverty related macro policies and strategies were reviewed to highlight that how effectively the ground realities of smallholders were addressed through the macro level government agricultural policy initiatives in Ethiopia. The utilization of improved seeds has not exceeded 2 per cent of the overall seed requirements of the country. Hence, pragmatic seed policy needs to be formulated and implemented effectively to make available improved seeds to the farmers for improving their income and reducing rural poverty. The macro fertilizer policy should be designed to encourage the farmers to make use of this crucial input for raising their income and reducing poverty. Contrary to it, the present macro policy of decontrolled fertilizer has discouraged the farmers to adopt crops with fertilizers. The credit extended by Commercial Bank of Ethiopia has been increasing yet it should be taken up on priority at macro level in order to improve the economic conditions of rural folk and hence reducing the poverty in the country. The Small Scale and Micro Industry Development Strategy (SSIMD) and related programs initiated by Government of Ethiopia are very much in line with the micro level requirements. Such efforts must be further strengthened for generating rural non-farm employment and hence tackling the problem of rural poverty in the country. On scarce land, improved technology needs to be made available to farmers through macro policies for intensive utilization of the existing land. Besides, government and NGO’s should promote subsidiary activities requiring less land such as poultry and bee keeping. Land-use-planning needs to be initiated to advise the smallholders to use their scarce land only for most desired enterprises and abandon the practice of growing trees like eucalyptus. Besides, Intensive Agricultural Technology Dissemination Programs needs to be chalked out and implemented to improve the efficiency of smallholders farming systems in terms of increasing farm income and reducing rural poverty in Ethiopia. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Rural Income and Poverty in a Time of Radical Change in Malawi February 2006 Peters, Pauline E. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in Africa. There is widespread, though not universal, agreement about the shape of poverty in the country and the policy challenge this sets. Agriculture continues to be the most obvious means to stimulate broad-based rural growth and to provide levels of food security and income needed for the majority rural population. A longitudinal study over a decade during which radical policy and political changes occurred provides the data and basis for discussing the appropriate policy directions for reducing poverty. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 322-345, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Modelling pro-poor agricultural growth strategies in Malawi: lessons for policy and analysis October 2004 Andrew Dorward and Jamie Morrison This paper pulls together insights from related farm-household and CGE modelling for Malawi to suggest wider methodological and policy lessons for pro-poor policy analysis in poor agrarian economies. The farm-household and CGE models and the principal results are summarised, and their strengths and weaknesses discussed. The discussion demonstrates the potential benefits of greater integration between farm household and economy wide models, and suggests ways in which this should be achieved. A number of conclusions also emerge regarding policies promoting pro-poor economic growth. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Gender Inequalities and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Cassava-based Farm Holdings in Rural South-Western Nigeria July 2005 Awoyemi Taiwo Timothy It is a widely accepted fact that persistent inequality between men and women constraints a society’s productivity and ultimately slows its rate of economic growth. The economy pays for this inequality in reduced labour productivity today and diminished national output tomorrow. Motivated by this the study aim is to assess the possibilities of enhancing productivity gains by improving the efficiency of small-scale agriculture through gender-responsive intra-household allocation of resources in South-Western Nigeria. It adopts a stochastic parametric decomposition method which yields efficiency measures that are not distorted by statistical noise to estimate the efficiency level of resource allocation by small-scale cassava producers. The results indicate that average overall productive efficiency in the sample was 75.78 per cent implying that small scale cassava farmers in the sample could reduce total variable cost by 24.22 per cent if they reduce labour, fertilizer, land and capital applications to levels observed in the changing input mix (technical efficiency) and then obtain optimal input mix for the given input prices and technology (allocative efficiency). The average technical efficiency and allocative efficiency indexes for the sample were 82.2 per cent and 92.2 per cent respectively. Also, evidence from empirical analysis of data from the male respondents showed that the average economic, technical and allocative efficiency indexes were 88.06 per cent, 89.34 per cent and 78.67 per cent respectively while the same computed for the female sample were 94.9 per cent 74.85 per cent and 71.03 per cent respectively. Labour was the most limiting factor in cassava production suggesting that the technologies that enhance the productivity of labour are likely to achieve significant positive effects on cassava production. The paper shares the notion that producers control over the means of production and impact of development are related and has influence on the economic efficiency and growth of society. Again, technical inefficiency constituted a more serious problem than allocative inefficiency thus most cost savings will accrue to improvement in technical efficiency. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Public Education Expenditure and Defence Spending in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation November 2005 Adebiyi, Michael Adebayo and Oderinde Oladele In this study, we set out to empirically investigate the empirical relationship between public education expenditure and defence spending in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1970 to 2003. Some statistical tools are employed to explore the relationship between these variables. The study examines stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. This is followed by estimating the error correction model of public education expenditure. The effects of stochastic shocks of public education expenditure and defence spending are explored, using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Although it is contended by some that the military may contribute towards the promotion of the modernization of developing societies through the enhancement of the quality and quantity of human capital by, among others, dismantling social rigidities, there is limited conclusive evidence to support this view. In fact, a negative trade-off between defence spending and public education expenditure (used as a proxy for human capital formation) is generally expected. A regression analysis of the relationship between military spending and public education expenditure in Nigeria between 1970 and 2003 is positive and statistically significant in all the techniques employed. It should be pointed out that the statistical analyses conducted in this study are concerned only with reported public expenditures on education. Inasmuch as private education and private expenditures on public education are excluded, the data employed understate the country’s commitment to education. With this caveat in mind, the study concludes that it is not unlikely that military activity has served to enhance the productive capability of the Nigerian economy via some modernizing effect. Thus, in the short and long run, the impact of military expenditure on Nigeria’s stock of human capital, particularly education, has been positive. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005 Child Schooling in Nigeria: The Role of Gender in Urban, Rural, North and South Nigeria November 2005 Okpukpara, Benjamin Chiedozie and Nnaemeka A. Chukwuone This research was conceived as a result of increasing drop out of children from school as well as high incidence of children combining schooling with some economic activities in Nigeria. Though many researches have been conducted in areas of school enrolment of the children in Nigeria, little or none of these researchers has bordered much on the role of child, parent, household and community characteristics on child schooling. Previous works centre mainly on explorative studies rather than econometric causes of the observed trends in school enrollment. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005 Education, Allocation, Unemployment and Economy Growth in Nigeria: 1970-2004 November 2005 Ajetomobi, J. O. and A. B. Ayanwale This paper examined education expenditure trend, higher education student enrolment and linkage with unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria. Data for the study came from several issues of Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and statement of account, Federal Ministry of Education and National University Commission (N.U.C). The results show that Government funding is unstable and unpredictable, capital and recurrent funding since 1970 are only a very small fraction of the nation’s budget, total enrolment contrasts sharply with level of employment because government could not limit enrolment to a level which fund made available could adequately cater for and the proportion of GDP that goes to education is still low. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005 Long Run Relationship between Education and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from the Johansen’s Cointegration Approach November 2005 Babatunde, Musibau Adetunji and Adefabi, Rasak Adetunji This paper investigates the long run relationship between education and economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2003 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Methodology. It examines two different channels through which human capital can affect long run economic growth in Nigeria. The first channel is when human capital is a direct input in the production function and the second channel is when the human capital affects the technology parameter. The Johansen Cointegration result establishes a long run relationship between education and economic growth. A well educated labour force appears to significantly influence economic growth both as a factor in the production function and through total factor productivity. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005 Primary School Enrollment and Gender Gap of Rural Households’ Children in South Western Nigeria November 2005 Rahji, M. A. Y. The study examined school enrollment and gender gap of rural household children at the primary level. A multi-stage sampling technique was used in data collection. Probit model was used in analyzing the data set. Evidence from the analysis indicated that more boys were enrolled than girls. The factors considered affect male and female children differently. Father’s education variable is significant for boys. It is not significant for girls. Mother's education variable though positive in both cases is not significant. The probit model predicted a gender gap of 12.56% in favour of boys. Most of the gap is due to differences in the ways households perceive male and female children. There is thus a preference for boys over girls in the demand for schooling. Based on the findings of this study, incentives for the enrollment of more girls were recommended. These include: differential fees, free tuition, and increased public subsidies for female education. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on “Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities” in Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, 2005. Public Expenditure and Human Capital in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Model July 2005 Michael Adebayo Adebiyi In this study, we set out to empirically investigate the direction of causality between human capital (i.e. education and health) expenditures and defence spending including debt service obligations in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1970 to 2000. Some statistical tools are employed to explore the relationship among these variables. The study examines stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. Then, the effects of stochastic shocks of each of the endogenous variables are explored, using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The evidence from the Granger causality tests shows that, in Nigeria, debt service obligations determine human capital expenditure such as education. Also, from impulse response analysis, the result shows that unanticipated effect of debt service obligations or defence spending on human capital expenditure is ambiguous in Nigeria. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Characteristics and Determinants of Urban Youth Unemployment in Umuahia, Nigeria: Implications for Rural Development and Alternative Labour Market Variables June 2005 Raphael N. Echebiri Umuahia metropolis typifies a fast growing capital city in terms of population growth rate. Its population grew from less than 20,000 residents in 1991 to an estimated excess over a million at present. This astronomical growth in population followed the creation of Abia State in 1991 and the subsequent change in the status of Umuahia as a state capital territory. Following this tremendous rise in population, Umuahia North metropolis which is the core capital city now has a teaming population of youths, most of whom are unemployed. This study was conceptualized against the backdrop of the increasing social and economic problems associated with youth unemployment in the metropolis. Some effort was made to characterize youth unemployment in the city from the perspective of the socio-economic and labour market perceptions of a sample of 220 youths drawn from areas with varying residential configurations. The sample randomly included youths, unemployed and employed in order to provide some basic counterbalancing assessment of the situation. It was found that youth unemployment in the town shared common characteristics with that observed in several other cities in the developing world. In particular, age of respondent was found to be inversely related to level of unemployment, hence suggesting that unemployment in the city was most pronounced among youths. Educational attainment and job preference were interrelated variables which had direct relationship with unemployment level. It was particularly noted that majority of the unemployed and first-time job seekers preferred salaried employment to self-employment. This orientation, although deriving from the economic and human capital development realities of the country, could be retrogressive in a liberalized market-driven economy. The youths showed strong aversion to rural-residency for several reasons prominent among which were lack of employment opportunities and poor social and physical infrastructures. Some policy issues were raised to provide a basis for a stronger community-driven rural and agricultural development strategy and alternative labour market variables. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Institutional framework, interest rate policy and the Nigerian manufacturing sub-sector October 2004 Michael Adebayo Adebiyi and Babasanmi Babatope-Obasa In this study, we set out to empirically investigate the impact of interest rates and other macroeconomic factors on manufacturing performance in Nigeria using cointegration and an error correction mechanism (ECM) technique with annual time series covering the period between 1970 and 2002. Some statistical tools are employed to explore the relationship between these variables. The analysis starts with examining stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. Then, the study estimates error correction mechanism (ECM) model. From the error correction model, several interesting conclusions are drawn from the study. First, interest rate spread and government deficit financing have negative impact on the growth of manufacturing sub-sector in Nigeria. Secondly, the study empirically reveals that liberalization of the Nigerian economy has promoted manufacturing growth between 1970 and 2002. Lastly, the findings are further reinforced by the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship, as evidenced by the cointegration, and stability in the model. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa The Global Market Place: How far can Nigeria go with the present non-oil product mix? October 2004 Rosemary N. Okoh This paper is an empirical analysis of the demand for Nigeria’s non-oil export merchandize with a view to providing an answer to the question of how far the present product mix would go in the global market. The study employed the Johansen’s test of co-integration and analysis of structural characteristics of the integrated stochastic variables in the error correction vector. The results of the study show that the present product mix of non-oil merchandize export, have low and negative long run income elasticity of demand, but high long run price elasticity of demand, such that prices rise and fall in response to the highly volatile global commodity market prices. This study has important implication for international trade policies in Nigeria and other Africa economies. Nigeria cannot maximize gains from global integration until the basic prerequisites for industrialization and modernization of the productive base have been properly established. Entering the global market prematurely is a deterrent to growth in export. Nigeria must do the first things first - invest on innovation and reduce the efforts towards global integration, since this will continue to be inimical to the Nigerian economy as long as the present mix of non-oil exports products remains. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Genocide and land scarcity: Can Rwandan rural households manage? October 2004 Marijke Verpoorten and Lode Berlage During the nineties Rwandan households faced severe shocks of war and genocide. In addition, the structural problem of land scarcity remains unsolved. How did Rwandan households manage? This is an important question from a development perspective, but also from a security perspective, because uneven development raises the risk of renewed conflict. To find an answer, we study welfare gains and losses in a sample of 189 rural households in two Rwandan provinces over the period 1990-2002. In our sample, many households were severely affected by the genocide. In addition, poverty and inequality increased. Moreover, we observe a lot of income mobility. Only one quarter of the households remained in the same income quintile over time. Especially the households headed by widows and prisoner’s wives moved downward in the income distribution. Households who reduced their dependence on subsistence agriculture moved upward. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Swaziland: In the pursuit of economic liberalization and growth. How poverty is reproduced at the micro-level under changing labour market regimes? October 2004 Gabriel Tati Why is poverty so pervasive in Swaziland despite substantial economic growth achieved through extreme economic openness over several years? Is poverty alleviation in Swaziland a more reachable goal than was in the past, as this country strives to restore rapid economic growth through AGOA facilitating greater insertion into the global commodity market chains? How have macroeconomic developments impacted on poverty within the labour markets, cross-border and domestic alike, and what measures can be taken to improve competitiveness in the labour market? The paper explores these issues by looking into some prominent structures of the labour market regimes in Swaziland from both the cross-border and domestic perspectives. Understanding the relationships between trade, labour market regimes and poverty reproduction is critical for this country, as insufficient analytical attention has been paid on what is happening at their interface. Economic growth has been exceptional over the past years, and the country strives to attract more investors to rip the benefits of African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA). Yet efforts to reduce the high incidence of poverty affecting most Swazis remain very disappointing, and elusive as inequality of all forms is substantially in rise. The heavy concern put on opening up the national economy to foreign investors has tended to obscure the realities lived on the ground by most of those engaged in making this liberalisation possible: the ordinary Swazis workers. Public considerations at the macroeconomic level seem to have been disconnected from those at the micro-level, as lived by the actors engaged in the crossborder and domestic labour forces. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa The Policy and Practice of Educational Service Provision for Pastoralists in Tanzania June 2006 Bishop, Elizabeth This paper will explore the context within which policies concerning education in pastoralist areas in Tanzania have been formulated and implemented. It will look at the way in which international and national agendas concerning pastoralism and education are manifested in the policy and practice of educational service provision in pastoralist areas in Tanzania. It will also examine the practice of educational provision in these areas, and assess the impact this provision is likely to have in terms of pastoralist poverty. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Conservation, Land Rights and Livelihoods in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania: Increasing Incentives for Non-conservation Compatible Land Use Change through Conservation Policy June 2006 Sachedina, Hassan For millennia, pastoralists have shared landscapes with wildlife throughout Africa (Pilgram, Siiriäinen et al. 1990; Homewood and Rodgers 1991; Little, Dyson-Hudson et al. 1999). Throughout the 20th century, this co-existence has been in decline as conservation policy excluded people and livestock from protected areas, and demographic growth and expanding agriculture excluded wildlife use (Ellis and Swift 1988; Pagiola, Kellenberg et al. 1998; Homewood, Lambin et al. 2001; Serneels and Lambin 2001). Concurrently, many pastoral systems across the globe, including those of Maasai pastoralists in Tanzania, are believed to be in decline and under unprecedented pressure to diversify livestock based economies. In East Africa, an estimated 70 percent of wildlife populations are dispersed outside protected areas on land which overlaps with pastoralism (Western and Gichohi 1993). The presence of unfenced and uncultivated rangelands adjacent to protected areas increases the total range of resources available to wildlife, and enhances long-term survival as predicted by island bio-geographic theory (Western and Ssemakula 1981). Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBRNM) is one approach that has been proposed as a way of enhancing protected areas by creating economic incentives for local communities to manage wildlife on their lands and enable wildlife to compete as a form of land use. The economic and ecological impacts of CBNRM in pastoral communities are still largely unknown (Caro 1998). CBNRM projects are being initiated across northern Tanzania encouraged by central government agencies and international conservation organisations, with a focus on establishing revenue generating, community based tourism projects on Village land that has been zoned for conservation. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Maasai Pastoralists: Diversification and Poverty June 2006 Homewood, K., E. Coast, S. Kiruswa, S. Serneels, M. Thompson, and P. Trench Sub-Saharan African pastoralism involves highly fluid production systems responding flexibly to variable and unpredictable arid and semi arid rangeland environments. Household wealth is typically subject to stochastic events and most pastoralist groups have a history of entire families shifting in and out of the system as their fortunes have changed. This potential to re-enter the system has been maintained by the often communal nature of land tenure in pastoral societies, alongside the potential to restock through raiding, trading (including wild resources), or cultivation. However, the last hundred years have seen a drastic decline in the commons available for extensive pastoralism. Large areas of land have been given over to alternative uses as pastoral populations have become marginalized within most African nation states. Extensive land loss to conservation and rapid piecemeal privatisation of formerly communal rangelands for agriculture and ranching enterprises are framed within an environmental discourse that invokes Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons to justify land alienation and subdivision. This process has entailed the loss of access to key dry season land and water resources. Presented at the Policy Research Conference on “Pastoralism and Poverty Reduction in East Africa,” held in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27-28, 2006. Women Education and Economic Empowerment in Tanzania: A Women Business Survival Model Analysis July 2005 Aurelia N. Kamuzora This paper examines the survival analysis of credit supported women businesses in Tanzania using various survival models. Survival models have been used in studies of lifetime bonds, labour strikes, market preferences, and business survival. By examining several predictor variables, the analysis demonstrates some variables can be used to business mortality. We use Product limit estimators, life table method, Cox Product Hazard Models to investigate women businesses over 22 years period. The median (half-life) of all businesses is exact 3.6 years. It was found, however, that level training and level of education before credit provision to have an impact on business survival. In this paper, the dataset of women businesses in Kagera region-Tanzania was analyzed by employing Survival models. Through applied non-nested econometric model that was conceptualized in order to determine the women business survival, we have found out that there many variables that can predict women business survival in Tanzania. Two of them were found to be the level of profit and training. The baseline hazard ration was estimated. It was found out that after receiving credits so as to start businesses, the women in Tanzania the median (half-life) survival time of all women business in Kagera region were found to be 3.06 years. The methods used in estimating survival function are no-parametric univariate model (KM), parametric (Weibull distribution), and semi parametric multivariate models. Then the product limit estimator (Kaplan-Meyer), life table method, and Cox proportional hazards model was used. They’re several types of Cox hazard models. In this study, Weibull distribution function was used. Weibull distribution is the commonly used in econometric (Greene, 2003). This paper examines the survival analysis of women businesses in Tanzania, using various survival models. Survival analysis have been used to study life unemployment spell, labor strike, household of durable goods, number of women worked in the labourforce, vocational expenditure (Greene, 2003), market preferences, life time bonds and many other areas (Gregoriuou, 2002). During recent years there has been a great deal of interest in the analysis of clustered data. Observations from the same cluster usually share certain unobserved characteristics and as a result tend to be correlated (Hung, et.al. 2004). Data are analyzed based on index function and latent regression function of duration models based on survival and hazard functions. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Economic Growth without Poverty Reduction: Identifying the Missing Links in Tanzania during Economic Reform October 2004 Anders Danielson Studying the relation between economic growth and income poverty reduction without taking changes in the distribution of income into consideration is like setting up Othello without Iago in the play. Without any further references to Shakespeare, this paper examines the relations between poverty levels, economic growth and changes in inequality in Tanzania during the 1990s. It offers four conclusions. First, the efficiency with which growth reduces poverty increases with a country’s income level, so low-income countries should combine growth promotion with redistribution; second, growth in Tanzania during the 1990s, has accelerated, but has also been concentrated in sectors to which the majority of the poor have few links; third, the efficiency with which income growth reduces poverty in Tanzania appears very sensitive to the pattern of growth; fourth, recent poverty reduction strategies do not appear to recognize this fact and rely apparently instead on a strategy in which growth increases tax revenue that can be used to alleviate poverty through an expansion of publicly supplied (social) services. The selected strategy appears particularly ill-chosen, both because of Tanzania’s historical tax collection record and because of the emerging consensus on the state as a facilitator, not a producer, in the development process. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Small Business Entrepreneurship in Dar es salaam -Tanzania: Exploring Problems and Prospects for Future Development October 2004 Rashid M. Mfaume and Wilhelm Leonard Small Business Entrepreneurship haves been seen as a hub in generating income for the majority of urban dwellers with no formal paid employment. In Tanzania, entry into small business entrepreneurship is usually not seen as a problem. One can start small business at any time and in any place. However, the development of this informal sector has been profoundly characterized by two parallel phenomena which are perhaps contradictory in character. One is the increasing politicization effort encouraging people to engage in Small and Medium Entrepreneurship (SME). This has led to the proliferation and mushrooming of small business most of which are in the form of petty trading, at least everywhere in the urban centres. The second is the parallel increase in events suggesting prevalence of crime and bureaucratic hurdles which affect SME and counter reaction from the small traders. While the second can be characterized as due to the increasing repressive action by city authority over vendors, the counter reaction behaviour of itinerant and small traders toward city authority is also evident in most urban areas. Generally, the sector is characterized by constant tension and feuds between small traders and urban authorities. Drawing on research findings, the present paper challenges the possibility of reducing poverty in Tanzania using the strategy of developing the small business entrepreneurship under the situation where there is an increasing level of petty crime and bureaucratic hurdles. It is argued and indeed, concluded that if the pres ent intricate and controversial situation surrounding SME and small business is not reversed, if not brought to rest, the development of SME is on slippery slope. The option suggested to tame the conundrum includes, developing discourse portfolio between small traders and bureaucratic authority and authorities formulating policies that can promote development of small business entrepreneurship. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa The Road to Pro-Poor Growth in Zambia: Past Lessons and Future Challenges December 2004 James Thurlow and Peter Wobst Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost three-quarters of the population were considered poor at the start of the 1990s, with a vast majority of these people concentrated in rural and remote areas. This extreme poverty arose in spite of Zambia’s seemingly promising prospects following independence. To better understand the failure of growth and poverty-reduction this paper first considers the relationship between the structure of growth and Zambia’s evolving political economy. A strong urban-bias has shaped the country’s growth path leading to a economy both artificially and unsustainably distorted in favor of manufacturing and mining at the expense of rural areas. For agriculture it was the maize-bias of public policies that undermined export and growth potential within this sector. A series of poverty profiles are developed and compared to the structure of growth during the structural adjustment period. Substantial policy-changes led to rapidly rising poverty, especially in urban areas. The costs of adjustment were particularly pronounced given the big bang approach to reform. Concurrent trade liberalization and privatization collapsed the formal sector with persistent macro-economic instability undermining necessary private investment. Middle income urban households were hardest hit, with more-educated workers moving into informal activities and the less educated migrating to rural areas. Agricultural liberalization prompted changes in the structure of rural production, with a general shift away from maize towards export-crops for medium-scale farmers and more sustainable staples crops for small-scale farmers. While overall rural poverty increased during the 1990s, its depth has declined considerably. Poor market access and low agricultural productivity were key constraints facing small-scale and more remote rural households. The urban core of the economy therefore collapsed under structural adjustment but agriculture and rural areas have continued to grow. Since this growth has occurred at the lowest end of the income distribution, there is some evidence of ‘pro-poor’ growth in Zambia under structural adjustment despite national stagnation. Sustained investment and economic growth during recent years suggest a possible change of fortune for Zambia. In light of this renewed growth, the paper uses a dynamic and spatially-disaggregated economy-wide model linked to a household survey to examine the potential for future poverty-reduction. The findings indicate that the current growth path, while positive, will be insufficient to substantially alleviate poverty. The large increases in growth that would be required suggest that finding a more pro-poor growth path should be a priority for public policy. The paper examines alternative growth paths and finds that diversification through an agriculture-led development strategy is likely to prove the most pro-poor. This is particularly pronounced for staples-led growth, although this option is contingent on improving productivity and market access, especially in remoter rural areas. Although agricultural growth is essential for substantial poverty-reduction, the country’s large poor urban population necessitates growth in non-agriculture. The findings suggest that returning to a copper-led growth path is not pro-poor and that non-mining urban growth, although undermined by foreign exchange shortages and inadequate private investment, is likely to be preferable for reducing poverty. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana Rural Livelihoods and Collective Action in Joint Forest Management in Zambia February 2004 Bwalya, Samuel M. This study examines rural livelihoods and collective action in Joint Forest Management (JFM) in six local forest communities in three of the nine provinces of Zambia. The role of forests and woodlands resources to rural livelihood strategies and rural income is examined and the determinants of collective action are identified and discussed. Our analysis of rural livelihood strategies suggests that both agriculture and forests are important sources of rural livelihoods and contributors to rural income. However, although average income from agriculture is relatively smaller than income from forest products there are more people earning income from the former than from the latter. We also find that although women appear to be more dependent on forests and woodlands for subsistence, it is rather the men who more dependent on forests for commercial income. With respect to the determinants of collective action in local forest management, results from this study suggest that household income and income inequality across households, scarcity of forest products, organizational and social capital, and individual prior experience with collective action programs promote collective action whereas market integration and proximity to urban markets (which some form of regional heterogeneity) weakens cooperation. It was also evident that programs which support both agricultural development and forest conservation will have the greatest impact on local behavior, poverty reduction and longterm local forest management in the study area. Final Report for SAGA Competitive Research Grants Program Shocks and Their Consequences Across and Within Households in Rural Zimbabwe February 2006 Hoddinott, John Increasing attention is now being paid to poverty dynamics in developing countries. This work links the extent to which households smooth consumption or smooth assets given income shocks, the empirical evidence on the churning of households in and out of poverty, and the possibility that temporary shocks can have permanent consequences. Using longitudinal data from rural Zimbabwe, this paper extends the discussion of these issues by disaggregating the impact of shocks by levels of asset holdings, by disaggregating the impact of shocks on individual level welfare and by assessing the extent to which such shocks have permanent consequences. By doing so, it assesses the validity of distinguishing between asset and consumption smoothing and provides insights into whether poverty dynamics assessed at the household level provide an adequate picture of dynamics at the individual level. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 301-321, 2006 In Understanding and Reducing Persistent Poverty in Africa, Christopher Barrett, Peter Little, Michael Carter (eds.), Routledge, 2007. Shared Sectoral Growth: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe June 2005 Niels-Hugo Blunch and Dorte Verner This paper examines agriculture, industry and service sector growth in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe over more than three decades. The analyses find at least one long-run sectoral relationship in each country. This indicates the existence of a large degree of interdependence in long-run sectoral growth, implying that the sectors “grow together” or, similarly, that there are externalities or spillovers between sectors. This also provides evidence against the basic dual economy model, which implies that a long-run relation cannot exist between agricultural and industrial output. The impulse response and short-run sectoral growth analyses support these results, as both imply the existence of a positive link between growth in industry and growth in agriculture. Policy implications are also discussed; these include directing more attention towards the interdependencies in sectoral growth broadly defined. In particular, our findings have implications for the design of education and health programs, as well. This improved understanding of intersectoral dynamics at all levels may facilitate policy implementation aimed at increasing economic growth—and thereby ultimately improving peoples’ livelihoods—in Africa. Presented at the International Conference on "Shared Growth in Africa," July 21-22, 2005, Accra, Ghana The Demand for Education for Orphans in Zimbabwe October 2004 Craig Gundersen, Thomas Kelly and Kyle Jemison We examine the effect of orphan status on school enrolment in Zimbabwe, a country strongly impacted by the HIV/AIDS pandemic with a rapidly growing population of orphans. Using data from 2003, after controlling for other determinants of enrolment we find that orphans are less likely to attend school than non-orphans. The result is robust to our correction for selection bias. Two additional results have implications for targeting: we find that the effect of being an orphan is especially large for older children and that, after controlling for previous education, the effect of being an orphan on school enrolment is sharply diminished. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa Has the New Zealand/Australian Closer Economic Relationship (CER) been trade widening or deepening? October 2004 Ron Sandrey and Dirk van Seventer This study finds that export trade widened rather than deepened as a result of the CER trade agreement with Australia. Trade has expanded in those products that were not heavily traded prior to the agreement as opposed to an expansion of “traditional” exports that were traded at the start of the agreement. This finding is therefore consistent with other recent empirical research undertaken on this new aspect of trade expansion, and gives weight to the suggestion that these agreements are beneficial not just in the short or “static” term, but in the longer or “dynamic” term. While often cited as a benefit of bilateral liberalisation, this widening feature of a trade agreement is not generally forecast in traditional computer modelling exercises. Importantly, the analysis of the trade expansion to the ‘rest of the world’ indicated that much of the result may be directly attributable to CER and not a change in worldwide trade patterns. Moreover, this widening was most pronounced in manufacturing lines, reinforcing the value of CER in that it had not merely diverted our traditional (and supply constrained) exports away from third markets. This was underlined by a similar analysis of the “mirror” imports of manufactured products from New Zealand into Australia. This showed an increase post-CER and confirms the trade widening hypothesis. As New Zealand prepares to begin negotiating an FTA with China, this study adds weight to the general conclusion that comprehensive bilateral agreements are likely to produce more welfare benefits than may be forecast by traditional means (ie computer models). It also supports the broad assumption that trade agreements are likely to significantly contribute to a growth and innovation export-oriented drive. Presented at the DPRU-TIPS-Cornell University Forum on "African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage," October 13-15, 2004, Cape Town, South Africa RETURN TO MAIN PUBLICATIONS BY GEOGRAPHY PAGE

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